As a film critic with over two decades of experience under my belt, I’ve seen it all – from blockbuster spectacles to indie gems hidden deep within the cinematic forest. Yet, the 2023 award season has been an unusual one, filled with surprises and unexpected twists.
The awards season pauses for about two weeks over the holiday period, resuming on January 5 for the Golden Globes. This gap before Christmas presents an excellent opportunity to step back and assess the broader picture. Which films have convincingly positioned themselves in the Best Picture category, and which ones are still uncertain? I’ve compiled a list and carefully examined it, and my tally suggests there are six movies that seem assured of a spot, with another six battling for the remaining four places. Let’s go through the potential winners, starting with one that exhibits both positive qualities and a touch of controversy:
The Top Six
As we began this season without an obvious frontrunner, the Cannes Palme d’Or winner found itself in a favorable position almost by circumstance. It seems that critics were unconsciously organizing their predictions alphabetically, but months have passed and Sean Baker’s film remains at the top – though it hasn’t pulled significantly ahead of its competitors. This could be beneficial: In a Best Picture race that often values likability, Baker’s screwball comedy gains an edge from its underdog spirit, a quality that has also made star Mikey Madison a strong contender in the unpredictable Best Actress category. Yura Borisov’s subtle, responsive performance is gaining momentum, suggesting that voters may be ready to award him with recognition.
In simpler terms, “The Brutalist” is essentially a movie similar to “Oppenheimer,” except it doesn’t include box office figures. It’s an ambitious work with heavy themes, an impressive soundtrack, and a standout lead performance. Critics are finding it to perform slightly better than its predecessor during the tastemaker season, but this might not last. The film is about Jewish assimilation and mid-century architecture, which some believe is worth supporting. Additionally, film enthusiasts on Letterboxd have already declared it as the best film of the year. However, whether or not it will receive Oscar recognition remains to be seen.
The movie titled “Emilia Pérez,” directed by Jacques Audiard, initially drew skepticism from critics regarding its awards prospects, but any uncertainty was swiftly dispelled when it swept the Golden Globe nominations and topped the Oscar shortlists recently. The film has garnered widespread industry approval, with unexpected admirers including producers of competing films at events like the Gothams. Despite potential Oscar-villain topics such as trans issues, cartel violence, and Spanish dialogue, the team behind “Emilia Pérez” stands a strong chance of becoming this year’s frontrunner in overall nominations.
The groundbreaking shift in the Oscars competition thus far is the inclusion of “Wicked“, which has been striding confidently after earning half a billion dollars. This Broadway adaptation is now a strong contender for Best Picture and is also competing in various technical categories, as well as Supporting Actress. However, it’s worth mentioning that it’s been over 20 years since a film won Best Picture without winning Screenplay or Director, two categories where “Wicked” seems less likely to excel. Interestingly, the last movie to achieve this feat was another musical: “Chicago” in 2002.
As a cinephile, I found myself utterly captivated by “Conclave,” much like I was with the enigmatic “The Substance.” However, unlike its counterpart, there’s little ambiguity about whether this intriguing exploration of the inner workings of the Vatican will resonate with the Academy. It neatly fits the new Academy’s penchant for films that subtly echo the Oscar-bait of yesteryears but with a fresh twist (or several, in this case).
Dune Sequel
Also in the Mix
An Unfamiliar Face
Nickel Boys
The Colson Whitehead adaptation was the toast of tastemaker season, earning numerous accolades for RaMell Ross’s sensitive direction and Jomo Fray’s innovative first-person cinematography. A challenging watch like Nickel Boys could be at risk of being supplanted by cozier titles, but I’ll feel more confident if Supporting Actress hopeful Aujanue Ellis-Taylor follows up her Critics Choice nomination at SAG.
Is there a chance that Kieran Culkin’s performance in this small drama could earn it a nomination for Best Picture? If we consider his collection of critics’ awards as an indication of things to come, then the odds look promising. In fact, if we go back to Christopher Plummer winning for Supporting Actor in Beginners, we haven’t seen an Oscar winner from a film outside the Best Picture category. Culkin’s co-star, Jesse Eisenberg, might also be recognized during awards season – not for Best Actor but for Original Screenplay. This dialogue-heavy two-person drama seems to align well with this category.
The rise of “Sing Sing” through influential critics was interrupted when it received only one nomination from the Golden Globes. It’s speculated that Golden Globe voters, who have a questionable track record on racial issues, may have assumed they had already recognized a film with a predominantly Black cast by nominating another film, “Nickel Boys.” Interestingly, “Sing Sing” is not well-known among regular moviegoers. However, A24 plans to re-release the film next month in an attempt to raise its profile. On the positive side, a film as emotionally engaging as “Sing Sing” should never be written off.
Initially forecasted as a strong early-season contender for best drama series, “September 5” has been overshadowed by more buzzworthy titles. However, its nomination for Best Drama at the Golden Globes indicates it’s still in the running. Nevertheless, this modest competitor has a steep climb ahead, and unfortunately, its strongest category, Editing, is usually seen as a complementary award rather than a catalyst. Even its ardent supporter, Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter, has moved “September 5” down from his No. 1 prediction to No. 7 on his list.
By nominating a film that highlights ageism in Hollywood, individual Academy members can feel good about themselves for not contributing to the issue.
*Both Gold Rush and Oscar Futures are having a holiday hiatus. The next installment of this article will be published on January 3rd.
Oscar Futures: He’s Sárt of Like a Brutal Pórsón
Each week until January 17th, when the Academy Awards nominations are revealed, Vulture will peer into its crystal ball to predict shifts in this year’s Oscar competition. In our “Oscar Predictions” section, we’ll share exclusive information, analyze fresh trends, and monitor industry chatter to identify which contenders are gaining ground, losing steam, and are most likely to secure a sought-after Oscar nomination.
Best Picture
Up ⬆ The Brutalist
After being slated for Best Picture contention since September, “The Brutalist” will officially premiere this weekend. Whether you adore it or dislike it (the majority seem to like it), critics concur that the film explores greatness as a genre and an aspiration just as much as it does ambition. As Keith Phipps puts it, “The Brutalist” portrays a solitary structure in the same vein that “There Will Be Blood” narrates a single oil company. It’s a self-contained story that symbolizes a larger narrative, embodying nothing less than the picture of America’s future and its perception of its past. A fictional biopic about architect László Tóth, the film embodies, as well as illustrates, a monumental creative vision. “Build something grand, or make a movie — but if you’re thinking small, leave,” says Jocelyn Noveck.
Down ⬇ The Room Next Door
At Venice, Pedro Almodóvar’s initial English film wasn’t highly anticipated by many journalists. However, it went on to win the Golden Lion. This unexpected victory sparked high expectations for “The Room Next Door“. As the end-of-life drama hits theaters this weekend, the initial excitement has dwindled. Tara Brady from the Irish Times, for instance, describes it as a “strange and loose” production. Yet, she still acknowledges that even a lesser work from such a talented director is preferable to none.
Current Predix
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, Wicked
Best Director
Up ⬆ Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Criticizing Corbet for his overt attempt to fit into the world of cinematic greatness might seem too straightforward for modern directors, especially if you have a tendency to scoff at a certain demographic of straight white men. However, you can’t ignore the impressive magnitude and creativity showcased in making The Brutalist for under $10 million. While his humor might be subtle, it serves as a crucial element that keeps the film from becoming too pompous. In many ways, Corbet is like a European director in an American’s body, offering the benefits of both worlds for this genre.
Even = Sean Baker, Anora
As a devoted fan, I can’t help but share my thoughts on the recent uproar surrounding Sean Baker and his film, Anora. The fact that he didn’t hire an intimacy coordinator, despite offering one to Mikey Madison who declined, sparked a multi-day debate about potential discomfort among the film’s background actors. Interestingly, many of these critics, so eager to safeguard imaginary feelings of unease, found themselves criticizing Madison as well. This is just another example of how the allure of indie authenticity can transform into Oscar contention. It seems like the ’90s are alive and well in the world of film critique!
Current Predix
Jacques Audiard is known for the film “Emilia Pérez”; Sean Baker has directed “Anora”; Edward Berger has produced “Conclave”; Brady Corbet has created “The Brutalist”; and Coralie Fargeat is associated with “The Substance”.
Best Actor
Up ⬆ Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Among the leading contenders for Best Actor, Brody currently appears to be the frontrunner, with a compelling performance as the title character in “The Brutalist.” Nick Schager of The Daily Beast notes that Brody portrays a man who is “crumbling because he refuses to yield, and his story is one of seeking life through embracing death.” His portrayal skillfully conveys the internal conflicts raging within him. Although others may have more persuasive backstories, influential bodies like the New York Film Critics Circle are backing Brody’s bid for the award.
Up ⬆ Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Could it be that Timothée Chalamet is quietly giving Brody a run for his money in terms of top competition? This notion is gaining traction among critics, although some may argue it’s due to recency bias since “Complete Unknown” was recently released. Critic Caryn James, for instance, praised Chalamet’s performance, stating, “Timmy is exceptional and utterly convincing, even better than the film itself.” If Chalamet were to break the record as the youngest Best Actor winner, it would be a significant shift in tradition. However, remember that this record exists for a reason – if the Academy were to select an actor under 30, we might indeed witness a notable change in the times.
Current Predix
As a cinephile, here are some movies I’ve been eager to watch starring some talented actors: “The Brutalist” with Adrien Brody, “A Complete Unknown” featuring Timothée Chalamet, “Queer,” where Daniel Craig takes the lead, “Sing Sing” starring Colman Domingo, and “Conclave” graced by Ralph Fiennes.
Best Actress
Up ⬆ Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door
In addition to exploring the theme of the right to die, it seems that the primary objective of the film “The Room Next Door” was for director Pedro Almodóvar to collaborate with his beloved veteran actresses from the English-speaking cinema world. In a symbolic gesture, both Tilda Swinton and her co-star Julianne Moore take on leading roles, a choice that has complicated their chances in awards competitions since it’s challenging for a single critically acclaimed actor to win Best Actress this year, let alone two (though Swinton managed a nomination at the Golden Globes). As a war correspondent who enlists a friend to help her pass away on her own terms, Tilda Swinton’s character personifies Almodóvar’s unique “fantasy of controlling one’s own death, right down to the time, place, and attire worn,” as noted by our critic Alison Willmore. However, elements of wit and frustration keep Swinton’s performance from relying too heavily on serene radiance.
Up ⬆ Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door
In a less celebrated manner, Moore’s portrayal as a troubled author has garnered just as much admiration, if not as many accolades. Critic Adam Nayman extols, “There’s no contemporary heavyweight who excels at on-screen listening like Moore; she possesses the unique talent to metamorphose into a sort of psychic compass.” In the film The Room Next Door, balancing the two leads equitably was prioritized over seeking mainstream success. Although it becomes simpler when both leading actors have already claimed Oscars, this approach underscores that for some competitors, awards season is about more than just trophies.
Current Predix
Actresses: Cynthia Erivo (Elsa from “Wicked”), Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Mikey Madison (Anora)
Best Supporting Actor
Up ⬆ Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
In this movie, the actor playing the wealthy patron, who develops an influence over Brody’s architect character, delivers a performance as impressive as any other in the film, according to Justin Chang. He describes it as “magnificent,” pointing out that even in scenes where the character is clearly manipulative, Pearce brings a charming warmth to him. Despite some criticism for a scene that makes explicit a dynamic that could have remained subtle, this shouldn’t affect Pearce’s chances of recognition. The film’s toxic friendship between Brody and Pearce’s characters is likely to make them seem like an unbreakable duo in the audience’s eyes.
Up ⬆ Harris Dickinson, Babygirl
“Did this year mark Harris Dickinson’s transition from an obscure heartthrob to a well-known one, following the premiere of Babygirl at Venice?” I inquired about this after the film. Since A24 is planning to release the erotic drama around Christmas, there’s been a lot of buzz in the media about Dickinson being at the forefront of a new generation of sensitive leading men. It’s surprising as I often confused him with Callum Turner and George MacKay in the past.
Current Predix
Here are the titles of five films featuring actors Kieran Culkin, Clarence Maclin, Edward Norton, Guy Pearce, and Denzel Washington:
Best Supporting Actress
Even = Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
In the first half of “The Brutalist,” Jones’ character largely remains in the background. However, she becomes more prominent in the film’s second half. Regrettably, critics often view this second part as the film’s less effective one. Opinions on Jones’ performance are divided, with Amy Nicholson finding her character intriguing after she moves beyond a typical suffering wife role, while Brian Tallerico feels she may not be ideally suited for the part. The genre of “The Brutalist” often favors strong female characters, and it was anticipated that Jones would receive recognition. However, her omission from the Critics Choice nominations might suggest doubts about the strength of her bid for an award.
Up ⬆ Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Give a brief pause for Qualley, whose recent Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations are seen as a testament to The Substance‘s overall power rather than evidence of her individual merit. I’m not entirely convinced yet, but SAG could serve as the ideal testing ground. Let’s hope that the SAG members adhere to the rules and recognize Qualley and Demi Moore as equally deserving nominees.
Current Predix
Danielle Deadwyler in “The Piano Lesson”; Ariana Grande in “Wicked”; Felicity Jones in “The Brutalist”; Isabella Rossellini in “Conclave”; Zoe Saldaña in “Emilia Pérez
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2024-12-21 18:55