Sinners’ Path To Winning Best Picture Is The Same As Two Polar Opposite Former Winners

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It’s too early to count out Sinners in the Best Picture race. Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another has been the frontrunner for most of the awards season, but Ryan Coogler’s vampire film is gaining momentum and had a significant weekend, keeping it in contention for the Academy Award.

Despite consistently losing to One Battle After Another in other awards shows this season, Sinners took home the Best Cast award at the Actor Awards (formerly known as the SAG Awards). Michael B. Jordan also unexpectedly won Best Actor. This success followed recognition at the NAACP Image Awards and an ACE Eddie Award win for the film’s editing.

Despite strong competition, One Battle After Another remains the most likely winner of Best Picture. It has already received top honors from several major award shows, including the Golden Globes, DGA Awards, Critics’ Choice Awards, BAFTA, and the Producers Guild Awards. This combination of wins historically points to a film taking home the Oscar, and that’s why I currently predict it will win Best Picture.

Despite a challenging start, the film Sinners has gained momentum, offering a glimmer of hope for its chances of winning Best Picture. It can draw inspiration from the success of two past winners to guide its campaign.

Sinners Will Enter Oscars Night With The Same Precursor Package As Parasite & Crash

The Screen Actors Guild and ACE Eddie awards likely aren’t the only accolades ‘Sinners’ will receive before the Oscars on March 15th. The film is also nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the Writers Guild Awards, where it’s up against ‘Black Bag,’ ‘If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,’ ‘Marty Supreme,’ and ‘Weapons’.

Most people believe Sinners will win the award for Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars. Marty Supreme is the only other film nominated in that category, meaning Ryan Coogler’s script is almost certain to be recognized at the ceremony on March 8th.

Historically, winning the awards that Sinners recently received – from the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), the American Cinema Editors (ACE), and the Writers Guild of America (WGA) – has been a strong indicator of future Oscar success. Both Crash in 2006 and Parasite in 2020 won Best Picture after receiving the same combination of awards: a win in the Drama category at ACE and a win for Original Screenplay at WGA.

Since 1999, any movie that has won the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), American Cinema Editors (ACE), and Writers Guild of America (WGA) awards has gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. This winning streak has held true for films like Crash, Parasite, Slumdog Millionaire, Argo, and Everything Everywhere All At Once.

Films like Slumdog Millionaire, Argo, and Everything Everywhere All At Once weren’t just favored by those three awards groups—they also won many other pre-Oscar awards, making them the clear frontrunners on Oscar night. Crash and Parasite, however, hadn’t won as many precursor awards and were considered less likely to win Best Picture.

Parasite & Crash Prove Sinners Can Still Beat One Battle After Another

After seeing those two movies, it’s obvious that One Battle After Another isn’t a guaranteed winner. The teams who worked on Brokeback Mountain and 1917 can tell you that awards aren’t a sure thing.

Going into the 2006 Oscars, Brokeback Mountain seemed like the frontrunner for Best Picture. It had already won major awards from the Golden Globes, Producers Guild of America, Directors Guild of America, Writers Guild of America, Critics’ Choice Association, and BAFTA. However, Crash won against it at both the Screen Actors Guild Awards and the ACE Eddie Awards, and ultimately took home the Oscar.

Although Crash won before the Oscars changed its voting system to a preferential ballot, increased the number of nominees to ten, and made its voting body more diverse, its victory still proves that the campaign for Sinners was powerful enough to beat One Battle After Another, which had been winning most of the pre-Oscar awards.

While many predicted a win for 1917 at the Best Picture Oscars, it wasn’t a guaranteed victory. It had won the most awards leading up to the ceremony, including prizes from the Golden Globes, Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and BAFTA. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Jojo Rabbit were also strong contenders, having won fewer awards overall. Parasite had also secured wins at the Screen Actors Guild, Writers Guild, and ACE Eddie Awards, but its only direct win against 1917 was at the Writers Guild.

Both Parasite and Sinners are the kinds of films that really appeal to a wide audience, and they’ve received strong support, particularly from the communities they depict. You could see this enthusiasm at earlier awards shows, based on how people reacted to their wins.

It’s clear Oscar voters loved Ryan Coogler’s film. The incredible 16 Oscar nominations for Sinners weren’t a surprise; they reflect widespread admiration and respect for the movie’s quality and achievements throughout the entire film industry.

Just like Crash surprisingly won over Brokeback Mountain and Parasite upset 1917, there’s a chance Sinners could beat One Battle After Another and achieve similar recognition. It’s still uncertain what will happen, but the competition for Best Picture is wide open. Both films are excellent and truly deserve to win.

Both beat heavier favorites for surprise/upset results

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2026-03-02 21:00