SHIB’s April Rally: Why Every Peak Ended the Same Way – Supply Over Demand

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<a href="https://minority-mindset.com/shib-usd/">SHIB</a>’s April Rally Had the Same Ending Every Time: Here Is Why

Key Takeaways:

  • SHIB price: $0.00000625, below 50MA, between 100MA and 50MA.
  • RSI(14): 42.19 faster signal, 44.60 slower signal, both below midline.
  • Exchange reserve: 81.8T – monthly high, rising as of May 2.
  • Active addresses: 1,900 – near April baseline.
  • Exchange netflow: +20.4B today – small positive, more arriving than leaving.
  • Spot taker CVD: neutral gray throughout entire April and 90-day window.
  • April price range: $0.00000575 low to $0.00000660 high.

The Supply That Arrived Without The Demand

SHIB currently has 81.8 trillion tokens held in its exchange reserves, the highest amount seen this month. Reserves hit a low of around 80.95 trillion on April 12th and 13th, coinciding with SHIB’s lowest price of $0.00000575. Since then, the price has increased to $0.00000625, and reserves have grown with it. When the price was at its lowest, fewer tokens were available for sale. Now, with the price near a monthly high, more tokens are being offered for sale.

Looking at network activity helps explain what’s been happening with the price. We saw a jump in active addresses – around 22,000 to 23,000 – when the price hit its highest point around $0.00000640 on April 16-18. A similar increase in active addresses (around 22,500) happened with another price increase on April 24-25. Both times, these increases in activity were followed by selling pressure, with people moving their SHIB to exchanges to sell. As activity died down, the number of active addresses dropped back to between 1,500 and 2,500, and the price followed suit. Currently, on May 2nd, there are 1,900 active addresses, and exchange reserves are at 81.8 trillion, indicating a large supply with limited buying interest.

What 90 Days Of Neutral CVD Actually Means

CryptoQuant’s spot taker CVD chart for SHIB shows a balanced market throughout April. For the past three months, the chart has consistently indicated an equal amount of buying and selling pressure, with no clear dominance from either buyers or sellers in the spot market.

A neutral Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) during a price swing from $0.00000575 to $0.00000660 and back indicates the price changes weren’t due to strong, consistent buying or selling. Instead, they were caused by short bursts of activity – sudden increases in addresses, trading volume, and price movement – followed by a return to the average price. The CVD didn’t show a clear trend because neither buyers nor sellers held enough power for a long enough time to be reflected in the 90-day CVD calculation. Essentially, this reading shows a market that reacts to events and then returns to its previous state, rather than one with a clear, ongoing upward or downward trend.

The Netflow Pattern That Repeats

Throughout April, netflow data showed a clear trend: significant increases in SHIB being deposited onto exchanges consistently happened right before the price reached its highest points. For example, around April 16th and 17th, roughly 365 billion SHIB arrived on exchanges as the price peaked near $0.00000640. A similar pattern occurred on April 24th and 25th, with about 245 billion SHIB arriving as the price tried to reach a new high. These large deposits suggest that holders were likely selling their SHIB when the price was at its strongest.

Recent data shows a significant outflow of around 500 billion SHIB on April 20-21, coinciding with a price decrease from the peak on April 16-18. This suggests either large SHIB holders moved their holdings away from exchanges after the price drop, or new buyers took ownership of SHIB they bought at lower prices. The current inflow of 20.4 billion is too small to indicate any clear trend and can be considered insignificant given the overall trading volume of this asset.

This pattern suggests that SHIB’s price isn’t limited by a lack of buyers, but by how its holders are acting. They seem to be depositing their SHIB to sell when the price goes up, and then withdrawing it when the price drops. This behavior is effectively creating a price ceiling, as those who previously held are now selling during any price recovery.

What The Active Address Clock Reads

The number of active SHIB addresses is a key sign of potential price changes. This is because SHIB’s price tends to jump when many addresses become active at the same time, followed by a drop-off in activity. We saw this happen twice in April – from April 16-18 and again from April 24-25. Both times, the price increased, but those gains didn’t last, and the amount of SHIB held on exchanges actually increased after each event.

Based on technical analysis, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing oversold levels (42.19) on the 1-hour chart, suggesting a potential price increase regardless of the current supply situation. If the overall cryptocurrency market continues to recover, particularly if Bitcoin stays above $78,000 following news of easing tensions, Shiba Inu could benefit from this general upward trend before any existing supply issues become a factor. Initially, a price increase driven by the market would appear the same as one caused by actual demand. However, the key difference lies in active addresses: a market bounce will show price increases *without* a surge in active addresses, while genuine demand will cause both price and address activity to increase together.

SHIB currently has 1,900 active addresses and a reserve of 81.8T. This suggests the price may either increase significantly soon, or it may fall, as there’s a large supply available but not enough demand to support it. A strong sign of a price increase would be active addresses exceeding 10,000 *along with* a decrease in supply entering exchanges – meaning buyers are stepping in without sellers immediately capitalizing. Conversely, if active addresses remain below 3,000 while the reserve continues to grow beyond 81.8T, it would confirm a lack of demand and suggest the recent price increase has lost momentum. Currently, the RSI is at 42.19, nearing oversold territory, giving buyers roughly 48 to 72 hours to react before the technical outlook worsens.

This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Before making any investment choices, be sure to do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor.

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2026-05-02 11:41