Polymarket Odds Say Columbia University President Will Keep Job

Protesters advocating for Palestine have been causing increasing controversy at Columbia University, leading to criticism of its president as she is set to testify about antisemitism on university campuses at the Capitol.

However, according to the collective intelligence of Polymarket, she is not expected to resemble Claudine Gay in her position as Harvard president. Claudine Gay stepped down following allegations of plagiarism and backlash towards Harvard for its handling of protests against Jewish students after the October 7 incident at Israel.

Currently, the betting market for the crypto platform’s question “Will Minouche Shafik step down as Columbia University President by April?” is pricing her odds of resignation at 7%. Each contract costs 7 cents and offers a payout of $1 if the prediction holds true, while providing no return if it proves false.

The protest contracts don’t have much financial flexibility at the moment. Although these protests have gained significant media attention lately, they haven’t reached the same level of national importance as the incident involving Harvard’s ousting of Gay.

It’s important to note that the probability of Gay leaving as per the contract showed significant fluctuations. The initial odds were at 26%, or 26 cents, but later rose to around 50%, then decreased to the low 40s, and eventually reached 100%.

One journalist who revealed the plagiarism scandal involving Gay suffered financial losses by wagering on her dismissal due to the unpredictable nature of the situation.

Read more: He Exposed Harvard President’s Plagiarism, Then Lost Money Betting on the Story

Chart-Topping Taylor?

After setting new standards with her record-breaking Era’s tour as the highest-grossing concert tour globally, fans eagerly anticipate Taylor Swift’s latest album, “The Tortured Poets Department.” Debuted on Friday, this highly anticipated release has already surpassed records by amassing an astounding 300 million streams on Spotify within a day.

Given all the hype and anticipation surrounding this album, it’s reasonable to assume that it will surpass previous chart-topping achievements of Taylor Swift’s music empire and reign at the top of the Billboard 200 for an extended period.

But bettors on Kalshi, the regulated U.S. prediction market platform, aren’t so sure.

Currently, the album is expected to top the charts for approximately two to three weeks, with a possibility of extending its reign for another one to two weeks, while the likelihood of it staying in the top spot beyond the eight-week mark is quite low.

If Swift’s album fails to remain at the number one spot for more than six weeks, it won’t surpass the record set by Folklore. At present, Folklore is Swift’s longest-reigning album atop the charts, having been released during the initial phase of the Covid-19 pandemic. Some critics suggest that the quarantine isolation may have contributed to its widespread appeal.

Around the three-to-four-week period, this album by Swift would typically rank moderately on the charts. It’s worth considering whether the music market fails to fully account for the influence of a massive, global tour with multi-billion-dollar revenues on an artist’s album sales.

Just asking?

Sometimes a question is an accusation.

In the realm of decentralized finance, or DeFi, there exists a Polymarket contract pertaining to ZKasino, a gambling platform that amassed $26 million in investment from notable backers such as MEXC exchange, valuing the company at an impressive $350 million.

The launch event for the project, originally planned for Token2049 this month in Dubai, had to be called off due to unprecedented flooding. However, even when we attempted to initiate the project itself, we encountered power outages and technical glitches.

Read more: ZKasino Users Plead for Refunds as $33M of Bridged Ether Sent to Lido

There’s growing anger among users, with some unwilling to give the project a second chance. As such, the Polymarket query poses the question: Will Derivatives_Ape and XBT_Prometheus, two project founders with those handles, face arrest this year?

It’s too early to determine if this was an expensive mistake or a scam, and most Polymarket bettors believe there is only a 27% chance of it occurring, as only two users have wagered that it did.