Polymarket Bettors Predict U.S. Government Shutdown to Drag On, But It’s No Record-Breaker!

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Markets

What to know:

  • Polymarket bettors are placing their bets that the U.S. government shutdown will last until after Oct. 15 but will wrap up within a month.
  • They give a 72% chance that the government will spring back into action on or after Oct. 15, with a ton of betting activity around that date.
  • Some market gurus suggest the shutdown might be fueling Bitcoin‘s recent sky-high surge. Well, what do you know?

Yes, the Polymarket bettors are speaking. They think the government will remain shut tight until after Oct. 15, but don’t worry, it’ll be back in business before you can say “political impasse.”

These bettors are giving the reopening a solid 72% chance on or after October 15, with a hefty $1.4 million wagered on that date. Apparently, that’s the magic number for everyone waiting for the government to end its prolonged nap.

Then, there’s the little side bet on how long the shutdown will last. A 67% chance exists that it’ll take between 10-29 days, and a 27% chance it’ll drag beyond that, but don’t worry, this shutdown is no marathon-it’s not breaking any records. (Well, unless you’re counting “long enough to confuse everyone.”)

And now for a juicy tidbit: some people are pointing to the U.S. shutdown as a key player in Bitcoin’s meteoric rise to above $125,000. Coincidence? Maybe. The market’s playing a funny game, folks.

In the meantime, Congress is stuck in an impasse. All their resolutions are failing to make the cut, leaving the country in a state of “wait and see” while the clock keeps ticking and the shutdown rages on.

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2025-10-06 11:46