Beyond Token Confidence: Predicting Failure in AI Agents
![The system assesses agentic reasoning through trajectory-level uncertainty estimation, quantifying risk at each step by combining content-aware surprisal, repetition detection, action-observation mismatch, and user-agent coordination gaps-calculated as [latex]r\_{t}=\max(U\_{t},\alpha D\_{a}(t),\beta D\_{o}^{A}(t),\gamma D\_{o}^{U}(t))[/latex]-and then aggregates these risks using tail-focused metrics like top-K mean and the [latex]\ell\_{\in fty}[/latex] norm to identify potential failures in multi-turn interactions.](https://arxiv.org/html/2602.11409v1/figures/overview.png)
New research introduces a method for assessing the risk of multi-step AI reasoning, moving beyond simple token-level probabilities to evaluate entire decision pathways.
![The system assesses agentic reasoning through trajectory-level uncertainty estimation, quantifying risk at each step by combining content-aware surprisal, repetition detection, action-observation mismatch, and user-agent coordination gaps-calculated as [latex]r\_{t}=\max(U\_{t},\alpha D\_{a}(t),\beta D\_{o}^{A}(t),\gamma D\_{o}^{U}(t))[/latex]-and then aggregates these risks using tail-focused metrics like top-K mean and the [latex]\ell\_{\in fty}[/latex] norm to identify potential failures in multi-turn interactions.](https://arxiv.org/html/2602.11409v1/figures/overview.png)
New research introduces a method for assessing the risk of multi-step AI reasoning, moving beyond simple token-level probabilities to evaluate entire decision pathways.

In addition to the main series, there was a spinoff called FBI: International that followed a special FBI team solving crimes and fighting terrorism around the world. It first aired in 2021 and lasted for four seasons, but was canceled in May. Fortunately, CBS is developing a new show called CIA, which is set to premiere at the end of February.

This year, the period between nominations and the Oscars felt particularly slow. This might be because the ceremony is happening later than usual, or because the frontrunner for Best Picture, Oppenheimer, hasn’t changed much since September. However, with voters having extra time to consider their choices, it’s possible the race could still take unexpected turns. Many Oscar watchers are now wondering if Black Panther: Wakanda Forever‘s impressive number of nominations could signal a late surge for Ryan Coogler’s film. While a high nomination count doesn’t guarantee a win—as we saw with La La Land—it’s hard to ignore a film nominated in every possible category. It suggests it has a real chance of success.

Shortly after the campaign begins, you’re dispatched aboard the Pinkline Panacea to track down Larry Pinkstock, a billionaire believed to be funding Rhea Pharmaceuticals’ disturbing scheme to turn people into pills for profit. It sounds unbelievable, but that’s the situation.

Okay, so Sony’s got a new movie in the works, but honestly, who’s actually making it is still a bit of a mystery. There’s a chance it’s Drew Barrymore’s production company, Flower Films – you might remember they did the Charlie’s Angels movies back in the early 2000s. Drew was, of course, in those films – the first Charlie’s Angels came out in 2000, and then Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle in 2003 – alongside Cameron Diaz and Lucy Liu. Good times!
A new framework explores how interconnected digital networks can overcome fragmentation and foster cooperation in an increasingly divided world.

Disney reported a significant increase in Muppet viewership on Disney+. Over just eight days, viewers spent a total of 125 million hours watching Muppet content – that’s a lot of people revisiting classics like The Great Muppet Caper! It makes you wonder how much more popular the Muppets could be if Disney+ added shows like The Fantastic Miss Piggy Show from 1982, or even just a single episode of Muppets Tonight. And releasing the chicken-themed version of the song “Manchild” on Spotify would likely be a big hit.

She explained that her self-worth doesn’t depend on awards or nominations. She sees the whole process as artificial, not a genuine competition. She compared it to creating something months ago and then having someone randomly pick a winner. She found the term ‘snub’ – often used to describe being overlooked – particularly absurd, calling the whole concept ‘insane’ and pointing out it’s a relatively new way of talking about things, even for those actively campaigning for recognition, like Timothée Chalamet and Bradley Cooper.

Premiering to enthusiastic reactions at the Fantastic Fest in Austin this September, Good Luck impressed critics and captivated audiences with its unique blend of genres and carefree energy. Director Gore Verbinski, known for blockbuster hits like the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise, the 2012 remake of The Ring, and the animated film Rango (which earned him an Academy Award in 2012), hasn’t released a film since 2017’s A Cure for Wellness, a movie that wasn’t well-received. Some believe he’s been sidelined by Hollywood, while others suggest he simply chose to pursue more personally fulfilling projects after stepping away from the demands of big-budget filmmaking.

Shows like Stranger Things and The Queen’s Gambit have become global hits because they go beyond typical genre expectations and explore themes that appeal to a wide range of viewers. Another Netflix original that absolutely deserves to be on everyone’s ‘must-watch’ list is the incredibly popular Squid Game.