Our Final Guesses for the 2025 Oscar Nominations

This year’s Oscar race didn’t start out with much fanfare, but as the nominations approached, its standing improved significantly. The unexpected pairing of “Wicked” and “A Complete Unknown” brought some star power to the competition. “Conclave”, a festival favorite, ended up being a real box-office success. “The Substance” built on its unexpected box-office performance with an even more surprising run through the preliminary awards. Whether you admire it or dislike it, the rise of “Emilia Pérez” to front-runner status is something that could only have happened in the last five years. The Oscars are more eccentric and globally diverse than ever before, and that’s a good thing for us all.

This year, unlike previous ones where the Best Picture winner seemed inevitable, the race is wide open and unpredictable. I believe there are five or possibly six films that could win the top prize. Although the precursors have provided some clarity, several key categories still seem uncertain. If anyone can decipher the Supporting Actress category, they should take charge of international diplomacy! However, remember, these are the Oscars, not a device that adds up guild results, so we should anticipate some unexpected outcomes. Here’s my prediction for which films will be nominated in the eight major categories when the Oscar nominations are announced on Thursday.

Best Picture

As a cinephile, I’ve come across some intriguing titles recently:

– I can’t wait to see Anora, a film that promises to captivate me with its unique storyline.
– The Brutalist is another movie on my watchlist, known for its raw and gritty portrayal of reality.
– I’ve heard good things about A Complete Unknown, a mystery that keeps audiences guessing until the very end.
– Conclave is a political drama that delves into the inner workings of an important institution, and I find such stories fascinating.
– I’m excited for the sequel to Dune: Part Two, as I loved the original and can’t wait to see where the story goes next.
– Emilia Pérez is a biographical film that tells the story of an inspiring woman, and I always enjoy learning about strong female figures.
– A Real Pain seems like a dark comedy with a twist, something I’m always up for when it comes to movies.
– Sing Sing is a musical that promises to be both entertaining and thought-provoking, and I can’t wait to see the performances.
– Lastly, The Substance seems like a gripping thriller, and I love being on the edge of my seat during suspenseful films.
– Wicked is an upcoming adaptation of a beloved story, and I’m eager to see how they bring it to life on the big screen.

In this competition, a select group of films – Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, and Emilia Pérez – stand out. All of them were BAFTA Best Film nominees and their directors received recognition from the DGA. Apart from The Brutalist, all of these films also earned a nod for the SAG ensemble award, while Anora and A Complete Unknown additionally won recognition from the WGA. Unfortunately, the other three couldn’t secure a SAG nomination because they weren’t written by guild members. Given their widespread success, it’s likely that we would have seen these five films in the Best Picture category back in the day.

As a movie critic, I must say that the seat once held by “The Brutalist” at the SAG Awards was usurped by none other than “Wicked.” With its Broadway adaptation raking in massive box office numbers, it certainly seems to be a frontrunner for Best Picture, much like the movies mentioned above.

Recently, it appeared that “Dune: Part Two” might fall out of contention, but the sci-fi sequel has managed to restore faith among its supporters with impressive showings at the PGAs and BAFTA.

Additionally, two films about the complexities of familial relationships, “The Substance” and “A Real Pain,” have found themselves on the Producers Guild’s top ten list. These films, which feature actors who are strong contenders in the acting races, explore the struggles of those bound by blood, adding intrigue to the already competitive Best Picture race.

In summary, only one spot remains unfilled in the PGA awards, with September 5 taking the tenth place. The journalism drama has struggled to make an impact, but if the Academy continues its trend of favoring auteurist films, RaMell Ross’s Nickel Boys could be a potential nominee. However, due to Nickel Boys‘s snub by guilds like the American Society of Cinematographers, it seems likely that another penitentiary-themed film, A24’s Sing Sing, will fill the final spot. Despite missing key guild nominations, two performances from Sing Sing have gained traction at precursors, and its more optimistic message might appeal more to the Academy.

Best Director

As a cinephile, I’d like to highlight the directorial masterpieces of Jacques Audiard with his captivating film, “Emilia Pérez”; Sean Baker’s thought-provoking piece, “Anora”; Edward Berger’s intense exploration in “Conclave”; Brady Corbet’s gripping drama, “The Brutalist”; and the visceral storytelling of Coralie Fargeat in “The Substance”. Each film offers a unique perspective that leaves an indelible mark on cinema.

Among the nominees for the Directors Guild Awards, four directors have been recognized at all major precursors. Audiard is a previous Palme d’Or winner whose movies are popular with international voters. Baker has transitioned from indie favorite to established success. Berger is an art-focused European director who added style to a bestselling book. Corbet, on the other hand, is a director influenced by the 1970s Hollywood filmmakers, recently dealing with a modern controversy. James Mangold, known for A Complete Unknown, was also nominated but his work lacks a strong personal touch, making him less likely to win.

Considering past trends in the Best Director category, it’s predicted that if someone else takes the spot, they will be an international filmmaker whose movie premiered at Cannes. Fortunately, we have two such candidates: Coralie Fargeat for The Substance and Payal Kapadia for All We Imagine Is Light. However, India didn’t submit Light for International Feature competition, so attention has focused on Kapadia as the only way to acknowledge her film. Nevertheless, I believe the spotlight of Best Picture will draw the nod towards Fargeat. It’s also important to mention RaMell Ross and his work in Nickel Boys, though it hasn’t yet gained as much industry recognition as critics have praised it.

Best Actor

1. Adrien Brody stars in “The Harsh One”

2. Timothée Chalamet appears in “An Unknown Quantity”

3. Daniel Craig takes on the role in “Strange Fellows”

4. Colman Domingo is featured in “The Sing-Song Man”

5. Ralph Fiennes plays a part in “The Gathering of Cardinals”

In the least populated high-profile category, Brody, Chalamet, and Fiennes are representing strong Best Picture contenders, while Domingo is seizing his opportunity to transition from a character actor into a leading man in his later years. All of them have been nominated for Oscars previously: Fiennes is the only one who’s been nominated twice, while Brody is the only one who has won (his record as the youngest-ever Best Actor winner may be surpassed by Chalamet this year). Craig might face some challenges since Luca Guadagnino’s romance left some viewers puzzled. However, he still has substantial industry influence, a compelling backstory, and nominations from the Globes and SAG, so I’m not too concerned. Sebastian Stan is ready to step up, but he’s promoting two films simultaneously, and awards voters can’t seem to decide between his performances in the dark comedy “A Different Man” and the Trump biopic “The Apprentice”.

Best Actress

1. Cynthia Erivo, known for her role in “Wicked”

2. Karla Sofía Gascón, recognized for her role as “Emilia Pérez”

3. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, famed for her work in “Hard Truths”

4. Mikey Madison, known by her character “Anora”

5. Demi Moore, known for her performance in “The Substance”

Two weeks ago I described this category as a fierce battle, and it hasn’t become any less intense. However, the leading contenders have become more defined. Gascón and Madison made a big impact at Cannes with their films that could be in the running for Best Picture. Erivo dominated the fall’s major blockbuster with her versatile skills as an actress, singer, and space holder. Moore joined later on, as critics gradually acknowledged that The Substance was indeed an awards-worthy film. After winning a Golden Globe, she is now seen as the front-runner.

Amongst the three remarkable actresses vying for the last open slot, I’ve chosen Jean-Baptiste, who left an indelible impression on me with her fiery portrayal in “Hard Truths” and “The Unspoken.” Given that her performance was simply too captivating to be overlooked by any viewer, I confidently believe she deserves my vote. However, fierce competition arises from Fernanda Torres of “I’m Still Here,” who recently claimed a surprise Golden Globe victory, and Pamela Anderson of “The Last Showgirl,” whose comeback performance secured her a SAG nomination in the small-scale indie category. Both their performances have received critical acclaim, making it increasingly challenging to predict who will ultimately secure this final spot. The race is on!

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov is known as Anora
Kieran Culkin stars in A Real Pain
Edward Norton features in A Complete Stranger
Guy Pearce appears in The Brutal One
Jeremy Strong plays The Apprentice Master

After Kieran Culkin had finished his work on that item, there was no longer a requirement for a competitor as glamorous as Denzel Washington in “Gladiator II” to join the competition. Instead, the precursor voters chose to surround Culkin with lesser-known actors. Borisov, Norton, and Pearce offer suitable counterparts to the leading acting candidates, while Strong is capitalizing on Donald Trump’s “Apprentice” fame. (Although he may be benefiting just as much from his former “Succession” co-star, Culkin.) Washington remains popular enough to secure a spot if one of these actors stumbles, but keep an eye on Clarence Maclin from “Singing Sing,” who nearly steals the film from Colman Domingo.

Best Supporting Actress

As a cinephile, I’d put it this way:

* Jamie Lee Curtis, in “The Last Dance,”
* Ariana Grande, starring as “Wicked Witch,”
* Felicity Jones, gracing the screen as “The Harsh Architect,”
* Isabella Rosselini, taking on the role of “Vatican Conclave,”
* Zoe Saldaña, bringing Emilia Pérez to life.

In this late stage of the game, it seems only Grande and Saldaña have secured their positions in our highly competitive acting category. The appeal of musicals! Otherwise, we’re considering a diverse array of captivating performances. Following her SAG and BAFTA nominations for the recently released Last Showgirl, Curtis’s gritty portrayal is edging closer to an Oscar nod, capitalizing on her recent victory at the Everything Everywhere All at Once awards. Jones and Rosselini’s chances are more uncertain, as both missed out on SAG recognition, and each faces a significant hurdle: Rossellini delivers a primarily silent performance; Jones doesn’t make an appearance until the second half of The Brutalist, which has been criticized. Yet, I believe their films are substantial enough to propel them forward, particularly given Jones’ past nomination, and Rossellini’s legacy in cinema, who has yet to receive recognition from the Academy.

Nevertheless, “A Complete Unknown” is gaining momentum at the perfect moment, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Monica Barbaro’s performance as Joan Baez gets recognition here. Danielle Deadwyler shines in “The Piano Lesson,” although August Wilson’s adaptation hasn’t quite met pre-season expectations. (To be honest, I’d prefer to see either of them in the spot over Curtis.) International voters are enamored with “Emilia Pérez,” which could potentially lead Selena Gomez to join Saldaña. In this volatile race, Margaret Qualley from “The Substance” might capitalize on Demi Moore’s popularity and secure a nomination. Let’s ramp up the excitement!

Best Original Screenplay

Sean Baker – “Anora”

Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold – “The Harsh One”

Jesse Eisenberg – “A True Agony”

Coralie Fargeat – “The Essence”

Justin Kuritzkes – “Competitors

With the Oscars becoming more internationally diverse, the WGA nominations have started to seem less reliable as a predictor of winners. This is because the Writers Guild only considers screenplays written under their contract, which excludes many foreign films and independent productions. Currently, the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs) appear to be our most accurate indicator, with “Kneecap”, “Anora”, “The Brutalist”, “A Real Pain”, and “The Substance” being nominated in this category. Despite the popularity of “Kneecap”, an Irish hip-hop biopic, I find it hard to imagine it making a significant impact at the Oscars. Instead, Mike Leigh’s “Hard Truths”, with his five previous nominations, seems like a more likely choice. However, since Leigh was snubbed by the BAFTAs, it suggests that another WGA-nominated film, such as “Challengers”, which aligns with the Academy’s trendy taste, might have a better chance. If “September 5” is nominated instead, it could be an indication that it will secure the final Best Picture spot.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jacques Audiard – “Emilia Pérez” (Filmmaker)

2. Joslyn Barnes and RaMell Ross – “Nickel Boys” (Authors/Directors)

3. Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar – “Sing Sing” (Filmmakers)

4. Jay Cocks and James Mangold – “A Complete Unknown” (Screenwriters)

5. Peter Straughan – “Conclave” (Writer)

This year’s Best Picture nominees are evenly divided between screenplay contenders, leading to some thrilling competition. The frontrunners in this category are “Conclave”, “A Complete Unknown”, and “Emilia Pérez”. I’ve selected two potential Best Picture longshots to complete the list. It’s possible that “Wicked” could be strong enough across all categories to earn a spot, just like how “1917” received a Screenplay nomination. If this happens, it might push out either “Sing Sing” or “The Nickel Boys”, which weren’t selected for Best Picture. However, when they were all in competition at the BAFTAs, the musical was the odd one out. Given the British preference for “Wicked”, this could indicate that “Wicked” has a good chance of being nominated.

2025-01-21 18:54