November’s Biggest Box Office Battle Is A Close Race (& Getting Closer)

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October wasn’t a strong month for movie theaters. While Tron: Ares was a big release, it quickly lost steam and is expected to result in a loss of over $100 million for Disney. Black Phone 2 is doing well for Blumhouse, but other films aimed at adult audiences—like After the Hunt, Good Fortune, and Roofman—haven’t been very successful.

While Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere might gain popularity like last year’s Bob Dylan documentary A Complete Unknown, overall, movie theaters are still expected to have a slow month. There’s a strong possibility that KPop Demon Hunters and Sinners will outperform the new releases during the Halloween weekend.

As a film fan, I’m really excited about November! It’s packed with big releases, and a lot of them seem poised to dominate the box office each weekend. Predator: Badlands looks like a major player, alongside some interesting indie films. Then, just before Thanksgiving, we’ve got Wicked: For Good coming out, and Zootopia 2 is set to debut over the holiday itself. It’s interesting because last year we saw Wicked and Moana 2 actually help each other out – they didn’t compete for the same audience, and both did really well. Hopefully, we’ll see a similar positive effect this year!

The only exception is November 14th, when two major new movies come out: Now You See Me: Now You Don’t, the third film in the series about magician thieves, and The Running Man, a movie based on a Stephen King story directed by Edgar Wright and starring Glen Powell. Early numbers suggest these two films will be very close in popularity.

Tracking Data Has Now You See Me vs. The Running Man Getting Ever Closer

Data from TheQuorum, which measures audience interest before a movie comes out, shows that Now You See Me 3 generated a lot of buzz early on. In June, 36% of people surveyed knew about the film and 44% said they were interested in seeing it. This is significantly higher than the numbers for The Running Man, where awareness and interest were at 16.5% and 38% respectively. Being a continuation of a popular series clearly helps build anticipation.

You know, I’ve been following the numbers on these upcoming movies, and it’s been interesting to watch Wright and Powell’s film really pick up steam. At first, Now You See Me: Now You Don’t was way ahead in terms of how many people knew about it and were interested. But the latest surveys, from around October 20th, show things are changing. Their movie is now at 45.5% awareness and 50% interest, while Wright and Powell’s has jumped to 38.5% aware and 47% interested. It’s still close, but the gap has definitely shrunk – they’ve cut the lead in half!

With both movies coming out soon, the next few weeks will be key, so we can expect a lot more advertising. Because it’s a sequel, Now You See Me is likely more well-known and is currently expected to earn more at the box office this weekend. However, interest in the other film is growing, which means the competition should be tight.

However, this film faces an extra challenge. It’s opening against Predator: Badlands in its second week of release, and Badlands isn’t performing as well as expected in terms of awareness and interest. Plus, The Running Man and Predator appeal to similar audiences. If Predator is well-made and gets positive reviews, overcoming concerns about its PG-13 rating, it could draw viewers away from The Running Man.

Ideally, all three films will do well. However, the results will show whether Hollywood made a mistake by releasing so many movies in November, especially since October had few major releases.

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2025-10-21 15:48