Netflix’s Best Picture Dreams: Can Fernanda Torres Shock the Oscars?

2024’s Oscar nominations sent a wave of excitement through Hollywood experts, awards predictors, and ecstatic film and performance fans alike, who were all eagerly anticipating the year’s top cinematic contenders.

The most striking and gratifying moment during the nomination process was provided by Walter Salles’ Brazilian drama, “I’m Still Here,” which garnered three significant nominations: best foreign film, best actress for Fernanda Torres, and best picture. This marks the second year in a row that multiple non-English language films have been nominated for best picture, following 2023’s “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Zone of Interest.” Notably, this is the first time two international feature nominees have received recognition. This demonstrates that the Golden Globes (particularly its winners) continue to hold influence.

Following Torres’ victory at the Globe Awards for Best Actress, beating out heavyweights like Angelina Jolie (“Maria”) and Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”), there’s been a surge of interest in the film among Academy voters. Feedback has been overwhelmingly favorable. Torres’ frequent appearances on late-night talk shows and her passionate army of social media followers have added momentum to her campaign, leading one to wonder: Could Torres potentially make history with another win?

As a fan, I must admit the situation is intriguing. Torres isn’t on the SAG or BAFTA nominee list, which means our anticipated showdown – with Demi Moore from “The Substance”, Cynthia Erivo, Mikey Madison from “Anora”, and Karla Sofía Gascón from “Emilia Pérez” – is postponed until the Oscars.

Currently, Moore, who’s garnering much attention for her chilling performance in the horror film, seems to be leading the race. Meanwhile, Erivo’s portrayal of Elphaba in “Wicked” has resonated deeply with audiences, echoing Idina Menzel’s Tony win over two decades ago. It’ll be fascinating to see how this unfolds!

The history and statistics are not favorable for Torres. Since the establishment of the Screen Actors Guild Awards in 1995, only three actors have won an Oscar without even being nominated by SAG: Marcia Gay Harden for “Pollock” (2000), Christoph Waltz for “Django Unchained” (2012), and Regina King for “If Beale Street Could Talk” (2018). All three won in the supporting categories. To win an acting Oscar without nominations from both SAG and BAFTA? That’s something only Harden has managed. For Torres, a victory would go against all odds.

Simultaneously, Netflix is likely rejoicing as Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language musical “Emilia Perez” garnered an unprecedented 13 nominations – a record for non-English language films. Despite being overlooked by the American Society of Cinematographers and Cinema Audio Society, the film managed to secure recognition in cinematography and sound categories. Regrettably, Selena Gomez, who seemed poised to receive a nomination, was unfortunately not recognized.

Winning the most nominations doesn’t automatically ensure a win. Since the Best Picture category expanded in 2009, the film with the most nominations has triumphed only six times: “The Hurt Locker” (2009), “The King’s Speech” (2010), “Birdman” (2014), “The Shape of Water” (2017), “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (2022), and the yet-to-be-released “Oppenheimer” (2023).

According to conventional Oscar criteria, “Emilia” and Sean Baker’s “Anora” appear to be the frontrunners for the Best Picture award, given their significant precursors such as the SAG Ensemble prize and categories including editing and direction.

This awards season, “Anora” has been the standout, consistently meeting expectations in all major precursor events without either overachieving or underperforming. Remarkably, Baker’s four individual nominations – for Best Picture, Directing, Original Screenplay, and Editing – position him alongside an exclusive circle of filmmakers, such as Chloé Zhao (“Nomadland”), Alfonso Cuarón (“Roma”), and Orson Welles (“Citizen Kane”). Achieving this is no small feat.

As a passionate cinephile, I was taken aback when Amazon MGM’s “The Nickel Boys,” an experimental drama that dared to push boundaries, managed to snag a Best Picture nomination, despite being somewhat overlooked during the awards season. The film garnered only one additional nod for its adapted screenplay, which was co-written by the director RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes.

The stunning cinematography of Jomo Fray and the powerful performance by Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor were noticeably absent from the list of nominations. This minimal recognition reminds me of other films such as “A Serious Man” (2009), “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” (2011), and “Women Talking” (2022), which have also only managed to secure two nominations each. This seems to be a recurring trend in the expanded lineups.

Despite this, Amazon’s other competitor, the sports drama “Challengers,” did not fare well. It was snubbed entirely, even in categories like the original score by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, who recently won a Golden Globe. The Music Branch of the Academy is known for its unpredictability, and not every Golden Globe win guarantees Oscar recognition. For instance, Justin Hurwitz (“First Man”) and Alex Ebert (“All Is Lost”) did not receive any Oscar attention after their wins.

Or, more concisely:

The sports drama “Challengers” was overlooked by the Academy completely, even in categories like the original score by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, who won a Golden Globe. The Music Branch of the Academy can be unpredictable, and not every Golden Globe win translates to an Oscar nomination. This is evident from composers like Justin Hurwitz (“First Man”) and Alex Ebert (“All Is Lost”), who did not receive any Oscar recognition after their wins.

Some people on social media are questioning how the movie adaptation of “Wicked” managed to be eligible for an original score, given the recent disqualification of Hans Zimmer’s score for “Dune: Part Two”. The Academy’s rules state that at least 35% of a film’s total music must come from the score. Since “Wicked” runs for 160 minutes, it needs about 56 minutes of original music to qualify. With the movie having 11 songs that add up to approximately 54 minutes, there is still some room left for Stephen Schwartz and John Powell’s score to meet the requirement and make a significant impact. Additionally, the fact that Schwartz has nine previous nominations and three wins under his belt might have influenced voters in favor of the film.

For “Wicked” to continue contending in the Best Picture category, it needs to secure a significant preliminary victory, and that can only be achieved by Erivo or Grande. The last film to win Best Picture without also winning Directing, Acting, or Screenplay was Alfred Hitchcock’s “Rebecca” (1940), which took home Best Picture and Cinematography. The last movie to win without a nomination for Directing and Screenplay? That was “Grand Hotel” (1932), and it was its sole nomination.

The religious thriller “Conclave,” produced by Focus Features, faced a setback when it was overlooked for nominations in cinematography and directing. Typically, such snubs might dampen its chances of winning the Best Picture award. But we’re not dealing with typical circumstances; just look at the recent Presidential Inauguration! Despite this, with eight nominations in total, “Conclave” might still find a route to success, mirroring the path taken by “Argo” (2012), which won Best Picture, Screenplay, and Editing without a directing nomination.

Another intriguing fact I’m tracking is this: Ralph Fiennes has now been nominated for the Oscars three times, following his roles in “Schindler’s List” (1993) and “The English Patient” (1997), both of which won the Best Picture award. If we include his role in “The Hurt Locker” (2009), he’s currently tied with 18 others for having acted in three Best Picture winners. Should “Conclave” win, he would stand alone as the only one to have been in four Best Picture-winning films. Could it be that he brings luck to Oscar-winning films?

In the category of best actor, Timothée Chalamet (from “A Complete Unknown”) is neck-and-neck with Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”). Both films have been critically acclaimed, as “A Complete Unknown” garnered a directing nomination for James Mangold and “The Brutalist” received recognition in editing and supporting actress categories for Felicity Jones.

Timothée Chalamet and Adrien Brody are closely competing for the best actor award, and their respective films have been highly praised – “A Complete Unknown” got James Mangold a directing nomination, while “The Brutalist” was acknowledged in editing and Felicity Jones’ supporting actress performance.

As a follower, I find it quite intriguing to see a reunion of sorts from the hit series “Succession” with Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) and Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”). However, neither film they’ve starred in this year seems to have made it to the best picture nominations list, which might be a setback for Culkin’s campaign. Interestingly, Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”), a four-time nominee in this category, is the only previous contender here. He hasn’t taken home the award yet and could potentially surprise us, especially if his co-star Chalamet wins the lead actor prize. If both of them were to win, it would echo the successes of “Mystic River” (Sean Penn and Tim Robbins) and “Dallas Buyers Club” (Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto).

As a follower, I find myself in a promising position this award season, having clinched the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress. I’m Zoe Saldana, and history might be made if I manage to secure an acting Oscar – a feat that would make me the third Latina ever to achieve this honor. Unlike Rita Moreno in 1964 and Ariana DeBose from the recent “West Side Story” adaptation, I’m not playing Anita. Ariana Grande, with her role in “Wicked,” poses a formidable challenge, especially if she manages to pick up Critics Choice and SAG awards along the way. Notably, my film has garnered an impressive ten nominations, tying it with 2021’s “Dune” as the most nominated movie that didn’t receive a nod for Best Director.

This year’s lineup of directors includes several newcomers – Sean Baker with “Anora”, Brady Corbet with “The Brutalist”, James Mangold with “A Complete Unknown”, Jacques Audiard with “Emilia Pérez”, and Coralie Fargeat with “The Substance”. In fact, 13 out of the 20 actors nominated are experiencing their first nominations. This hasn’t happened since 1997 when James Cameron’s “Titanic” dominated the ceremony.

A record-breaking number of Latino actors were recognized in various celebrations, with Colman Domingo, Fernanda Torres, Monica Barbaro, and Zoe Saldaña all being nominated – a historical first. Interestingly, Domingo is now the second Black actor to be honored for two consecutive years, following Denzel Washington. Additionally, Cynthia Erivo, who is chasing the EGOT title, became the second Black woman ever to receive a second best actress nomination, after Viola Davis. If Erivo manages to complete her EGOT status, she would be the first actor to do so on the Oscar stage.

So, what do the next 38 days look like before the ceremony?

Even though “Emilia Perez” is currently leading as favorite for Best Picture, the Guild Awards might cause a shift in the competition. The Directors Guild Awards (DGA) appear to be backing “The Brutalist,” while the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) may align with “Wicked.” The BAFTA Awards could tilt toward “Conclave,” and when it comes to the Producers Guild (PGA), it’s anyone’s guess.

The movie “Emilia Perez” is currently favored for Best Picture, but other awards like the Guild Awards could change things up. The DGA Awards seem to support “The Brutalist,” SAG Awards might favor “Wicked,” BAFTA Awards could go to “Conclave,” and it’s hard to predict who will win at the PGA.

In 2015, I found myself amidst a flurry of film releases, each vying for the favor of various guilds. “Spotlight” ultimately emerged victorious at the Oscars, having only secured a Screen Actors Guild (SAG) award prior to that. Fast forward to 2016, and “Moonlight” pulled off an unprecedented upset. With just a Golden Globe best picture (drama) and Writers Guild of America Award for original screenplay under its belt, it later moved the category to adapted for the Oscars, making history in the process.

As the Oscars become increasingly uncertain, everyone is watching closely to see if the guilds will provide clarity or add even more complexity and confusion to the storyline.

The first crack at the winners is below.

See all Academy Award predictions

EbMaster Awards Circuit: Oscars

Oscars Predictions Tracking (Winners)
(Jan. 23, 2024)

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2025-01-23 23:47