Let’s Indulge in Some Way-Too-Early Emmy Predictions

It’s definitely too soon to predict who will win Emmys – we’re only at the beginning of May, and nominations aren’t announced until mid-July. Plus, some shows haven’t even aired yet! That’s all true. But what’s the point of making predictions if you can’t have a little fun and take some educated guesses?

Okay, let’s talk Emmys. I’m already seeing some clear frontrunners – shows like The Bear, Hacks, and Beef are definitely back and look strong. Plus, a lot of last year’s nominees could be in the running again. And it’s wild how quickly things change – half the cast of Euphoria are huge movie stars now! All the pieces are in place, so it’s time to really dive in and start figuring out who’s going to win.

Just a quick heads-up before we get started: we won’t know exactly how many acting nominations there will be until the Academy officially announces everything. It all depends on how many actors and actresses were submitted in each category – the more submissions, the more potential nominees!

The number of nominees will depend on how many submissions we receive. Here’s the breakdown: 20–80 submissions will result in five nominees, 81–160 submissions will result in six nominees, 161–240 submissions will result in seven nominees, and if we receive more than 240 submissions, there will be eight nominees.

Last year’s nominations included: five actors and actresses for leading roles in a drama, seven for supporting roles in a drama, five for leading roles in a comedy, seven for supporting roles in a comedy, five for leading roles in a limited series or movie, and six for supporting roles in a limited series or movie.

For the purpose of this exercise, we’ll assume those numbers will remain constant.

Outstanding Drama Series

Four shows nominated for Outstanding Drama Series last year – The Pitt, Slow Horses, The Diplomat, and Paradise – are eligible again this year. This marks the most returning nominees in six years, and it’s the first time in four years that more than one show from the previous year is in the running. Several other past nominees are also back after a break, including Euphoria, Stranger Things, The Boys, The Morning Show, The Gilded Age, and Fallout. This creates strong competition for new series like Apple’s Pluribus, AMC’s The Audacity, and HBO’s Task and A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms, all of which will need to impress to win.

As the current champion, The Pitt is the one to beat. While its second season didn’t have one big, shocking event, it consistently built tension and dramatically changed its main character, Dr. Robby, from a reliable leader to someone much more troubled. However, it’s unclear if the show improved as much as previous Emmy winners like Succession or Breaking Bad. This leaves the door open for competition from shows like The Diplomat, Slow Horses, and Paradise. These three shows all offer engaging political thrillers, but their similar themes might prevent any one of them from standing out. Then there’s Pluribus, a new series from the creator of Breaking Bad, which could be exactly what Emmy voters are looking for: a thought-provoking show like Severance with a compelling, flawed protagonist in Rhea Seehorn’s Carol.

My pick for a surprising Emmy contender is Euphoria, which is currently capturing a lot of public attention. Zendaya has become a major movie star since the show last competed at the Emmys – her film The Drama earned over $100 million globally – and Sydney Sweeney and Jacob Elordi have also become well-known actors. But does this widespread popularity outweigh the fact that Euphoria feels too edgy, immature, and unconventional for what typically wins Emmys?

The competition for the final two nomination slots is going to be tight. The Testaments is hoping to benefit from the same voters who supported The Handmaid’s Tale during the previous election, and from the Oscar buzz surrounding Chase Infiniti. Task comes from the team behind Mare of Easttown and stars Emmy winner Mark Ruffalo, but it faces stiff competition from other HBO shows like The Pitt and Euphoria (and potentially The Gilded Age). The Morning Show received 16 nominations in 2024, so it’s surprising to see it potentially out of the running – was the latest season truly weak, or is this year’s competition just exceptionally strong?

Here are some predicted outcomes: The Diplomat, Euphoria, The Morning Show, Paradise, The Pitt, Pluribus, Slow Horses, and The Testaments.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

It’s ironic that Dr. Robby’s storyline this season has made his character less appealing, even though Noah Wyle deserves another Emmy award for his performance. Last year’s nominees, Gary Oldman and Sterling K. Brown, still seem likely to remain strong contenders. This leaves only a few potential spots open, creating a competitive race. The Diplomat is gaining traction because it’s consistently good in a year lacking truly dominant shows, and Rufus Sewell is the actor most likely to benefit, especially with his character now holding a prominent new position after three seasons.

Both Walton Goggins and Idris Elba received nominations two years ago for their roles in Fallout and Hijack, making them strong contenders this year as well. However, the initial excitement around Fallout diminished in its second season. Interestingly, Hijack didn’t generate a lot of buzz initially, but still earned Elba a nomination, which raises questions about how much buzz actually matters.

Mark Ruffalo (known for Task), Billy Magnussen (The Audacity), and Peter Claffey (A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms) represent different levels of fame, playfully compared to the story of the Three Little Pigs. Ruffalo has the strongest, most lasting fame (like brick), followed by Magnussen (like wood), with Claffey having the newest and most fragile recognition (like straw).

Billy Bob Thornton, like other stars in Taylor Sheridan’s shows, is hoping this role will finally get noticed by Emmy voters, who haven’t shown much interest in Sheridan’s work so far. Similarly, Jon Hamm is hoping enough Emmy voters will remember how much they like him thanks to his work in ‘Your Friends & Neighbors’.

Predictions: Sterling K. Brown, Gary Oldman, Mark Ruffalo, Rufus Sewell, Noah Wyle

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Zendaya has won this Emmy twice and has never lost, and her star power has only grown since then, along with the popularity of Euphoria. While some media outlets and TV fans online might favor Rhea Seehorn for Pluribus, she’s almost certainly guaranteed a nomination. Keri Russell (The Diplomat) completes the top three, as Emmy voters consistently support her work.

Kathy Bates is expected to be nominated again, but the fact that she didn’t win last year, despite strong support, suggests Emmy voters may not be as enthusiastic about Matlock as its audience. Meanwhile, Jennifer Aniston’s chances are being overlooked this year because the latest season of The Morning Show aired a while ago and didn’t generate the same level of attention as previous seasons. However, it would be a mistake to underestimate Aniston or The Morning Show.

The final nomination spot is a tight race. Sydney Chandler from Alien: Earth, Carrie Coon from The Gilded Age, and Sarah Goldberg, who benefited from positive buzz around Barry, are all contenders. However, Chase Infiniti from The Testaments is a strong possibility. Her recent recognition during awards season, combined with the Emmys’ history of favoring shows connected to The Handmaid’s Tale, gives her a good chance of being nominated.

Predictions: Kathy Bates, Chase Infiniti, Keri Russell, Rhea Seehorn, Zendaya

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

This category could be particularly interesting during Emmy voting. Voters often support actors from the most popular shows, and with two seasons of The Pitt under their belts, the show is likely to receive several supporting nominations. This benefits Patrick Ball, who plays Dr. Langdon, and Shawn Hatosy, last year’s Guest Actor winner for his role as Dr. Jack Abbot. If voters are really enthusiastic about The Pitt, they might also nominate Gerran Howell, who plays Dr. Whitaker.

Emmy voters often reward actors who are already popular – like when Melissa McCarthy won for Mike & Molly shortly after her breakout role in Bridesmaids. This could be good news for Jacob Elordi from Euphoria, who recently received an Oscar nomination. Plus, the Academy often favors actors previously nominated for Emmys, meaning Billy Crudup (a two-time winner for The Morning Show) is likely to be a contender. Jack Lowden (Slow Horses) and James Marsden (Paradise) – both recent Emmy nominees – could also be in the running.

With seven nominees in this category for the past two years, many strong performances are hoping for recognition. Carlos-Manuel Vesga had a significant role in the latter part of the first season of Pluribus. Tom Pelphrey wasn’t nominated in 2020 for Ozark, but he received a Guest Actor nomination in 2022. If his career continues on this path, a nomination for his highly praised work in Task would be likely – he’s already received a Gotham nomination. Babou Ceesay (Alien: Earth), Dexter Sol Ansell (A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms), and Zach Galifianakis (The Audacity) are also strong contenders. All four actors would see their chances improve if their shows gain more attention in the Drama Series category.

This season, both Ken Leung and Kit Harington delivered particularly strong performances. They’d likely have a better shot at nominations if there were fewer outstanding actors in the running. Also worth mentioning as a potential surprise nominee is Rory Kinnear. His frustratingly compelling portrayal of the British Prime Minister in The Diplomat really stood out this season, and Emmy voters have shown they enjoy the show.

Here are the actors predicted to be featured: Patrick Ball, Billy Crudup, Jacob Elordi, Shawn Hatosy, Gerran Howell, Tom Pelphrey, and Carlos-Manuel Vesga.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Katherine LaNasa won in this category last year as the only supporting cast member from The Pitt to be nominated. This year, I think several others will also be in contention. Taylor Dearden and Isa Briones seem like the strongest contenders, given their screen time and storylines. Sepideh Moafi could also be nominated as the new interim chief introduced in season two, though it’s a less certain possibility. The fact that Supriya Ganesh won’t be back for season three might generate some sympathy votes from Emmy voters, but that didn’t help Tracy Ifeachor’s chances last year.

If Emmy voters like Pluribus as much as critics and TV fans, Karolina Wydra is almost guaranteed a supporting actress nomination. I’m also optimistic about Sydney Sweeney receiving a nomination for Euphoria. Despite being the subject of a lot of debate, she was nominated twice in this category in 2022 (for both Euphoria and The White Lotus), and her popularity has only grown since then. Hunter Schafer could also be nominated for Euphoria, though the show’s uneven writing for her character might hinder her chances.

Allison Janney has won seven Emmy Awards, but her last win was in 2015. Many felt she deserved an Emmy last year for her role in The Diplomat, though she was nominated as a supporting actress despite only appearing in a few episodes. She plays a major role in the current season, and if the actresses from The Pitt divide the votes, it’s very possible Janney could win.

Julianne Nicholson’s Emmy nomination last year for Paradise was a bit unexpected, but she played the show’s most compelling character, making her a strong contender for another nomination this year. Ann Dowd, who previously won this award in 2017 and received two additional nominations, could also be nominated again for her role in The Handmaid’s Tale as her story continues in The Testaments. While Marisa Abela has dedicated fans supporting her work on Industry, the show hasn’t translated into Emmy success in the past.

Here are the actors predicted to be involved: Isa Briones, Taylor Dearden, Allison Janney, Katherine LaNasa, Julianne Nicholson, Sydney Sweeney, and Karolina Wydra.

Outstanding Comedy Series

For the last four years, five comedies – Hacks, Abbott Elementary, Only Murders in the Building, The Bear, and Shrinking – have received a large portion of the nominations for Outstanding Comedy Series, accounting for 15 out of 32 total nominations. Shrinking is the only one of these shows that wasn’t nominated every year it was eligible. While it feels inevitable that newer comedies will eventually dominate the nominations, The Studio seemed poised to lead that change but won’t be back in time to qualify this year. I don’t think this year’s new comedies are strong enough to cause a major shake-up. Therefore, if you’re looking for a safe bet, I’d predict these five shows will be nominated again, though The Bear‘s chances seem a little less certain than the others.

There are still three spots open, and several shows are competing for them. Last year, “Nobody Wants This” filled one of those spots and might again, even though its second season didn’t generate much excitement. In fact, most of Netflix’s returning comedies haven’t created a lot of buzz. “Wednesday,” “A Man on the Inside,” and “The Four Seasons” aren’t generating much anticipation for their next seasons either. Netflix’s biggest comedy hope might be “Big Mistakes,” a new series co-created by Dan Levy and Rachel Sennott. It’s a darkly funny show about adult siblings involved in the drug trade, and feels like a mix of “Weeds” and “The Other Two.” While it doesn’t offer anything completely original, the jokes are good, the acting is strong, and it received a lot of nominations at the Gotham Awards. Despite all of this, I’d happily make room for NBC’s “The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins,” produced by Robert Carlock and Sam Means, if it meant getting it a nomination.

Apple TV is hoping several of its shows will gain recognition like Shrinking. Palm Royale has already been nominated for an Emmy (in 2024), and Widow’s Bay is a charming series starring Matthew Rhys. However, Margo’s Got Money Troubles seems like the strongest contender. Created by David E. Kelley, a veteran with 30 Emmy nominations and 11 wins, the show has a lot going for it: it touches on current economic worries, features a relatable portrayal of sex work, and boasts an impressive cast including Michelle Pfeiffer and Nicole Kidman. It’s shaping up to be a major Emmy contender.

Now that Hacks has a nomination, everyone’s wondering if HBO can also get nominations for The Comeback or Rooster, both produced by Bill Lawrence. The Comeback hasn’t been nominated for Outstanding Comedy Series before, but its recent season heavily focused on the dangers of AI, which could resonate with voters at the Television Academy.

Here are some shows that are predicted to be popular: Abbott Elementary, The Bear, Big Mistakes, The Comeback, Hacks, Margo’s Got Money Troubles, Only Murders in the Building, and Shrinking.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Now that Seth Rogen, last year’s winner, isn’t in contention, voters have a real choice to make. They can either award the prize to Jeremy Allen White from The Bear, or choose a newcomer – possibly Martin Short or Steve Martin, both 76 and 80 years old respectively, for their work on Only Murders in the Building. Another option is to continue the trend of recognizing actors from Freaks and Geeks by giving the Emmy to Jason Segel from Shrinking. The race is wide open, and that makes it surprisingly exciting.

Several past Emmy winners, including Ted Danson (for A Man on the Inside) and Matthew Rhys (for Widow’s Bay), are potential nominees this year. Dan Levy delivers a surprisingly intense performance as a pastor turned drug runner in Big Mistakes, even more so than in Schitt’s Creek. And Steve Carell, who has been nominated for an Emmy six times without a win, gives a charming performance in Rooster that helps viewers forget his unsettling role in The Morning Show.

Adam Brody, who was nominated for Nobody Wants This last year, received Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and Actor Award nominations for the second season of his show. He’s a strong contender, but Ethan Hawke, recently nominated for an Oscar for FX’s The Lowdown, is also one to watch.

Tim Robinson’s work in The Chair Company feels similar to Nathan Fielder’s approach in The Rehearsal – an ambitious idea for a more innovative awards show that likely won’t happen. I’m really hoping Tracy Morgan gets nominated for The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins, though. It definitely echoes his comedic style from 30 Rock, but he’s incredibly funny when performing like that. Among all the actors who blend drama and comedy, Morgan would be a welcome burst of pure humor.

Predictions: Adam Brody, Steve Carell, Jason Segel, Martin Short, Jeremy Allen White

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

For years, Jean Smart has been the clear favorite to win the award for her role in Hacks. But this year, she might face some real competition. Lisa Kudrow, nominated twice before for The Comeback, is a comedy icon, and the Television Academy seems more open to trying new things than they were over a decade ago, making this a strong possibility for Kudrow to win.

Elle Fanning received a nomination in 2022 for her role in The Great and is likely to be nominated again for Margo’s Got Money Troubles, where she plays a single mother earning money through OnlyFans. She joins a talented group of comedic actresses who have also been nominated, including Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary, with four nominations and one win), Ayo Edebiri (The Bear, with two nominations and a 2023 win), Kristen Bell (Nobody Wants This, nominated in 2025), Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building, nominated in 2024), Kristen Wiig (Palm Royale, nominated in 2024), Maya Rudolph (Loot, nominated in 2024), and Jenna Ortega (Wednesday, nominated in 2023). Veteran actresses Tina Fey (The Four Seasons) and Jane Kaczmarek (Malcolm in the Middle: Life’s Still Unfair) each have seven nominations to their names as well.

I think Brunson and, surprisingly, Ortega are the strongest contenders. Despite Wednesday‘s disappointing second season, its lead actress received nominations from both the Golden Globes and the Actor Awards. I’m particularly curious to see if the Emmys will recognize Kaczmarek’s past work and nominate her for Malcolm in the Middle for an eighth time – she’s never actually won. She might also submit her work in the Supporting Actress category this year.

Beyond Fanning, Rachel Sennott represents a strong possibility for fresh nominees. She could be nominated for her HBO series, I Love LA, and Taylor Ortega might also be considered for her role in Big Mistakes, where she plays a character similar to Sennott. While it’s uncertain if Emmy voters will embrace them, there’s a chance that popular shows like The Bear and Only Murders in the Building could see a decline in nominations, opening the door for these newer contenders.

Predictions: Quinta Brunson, Elle Fanning, Lisa Kudrow, Jenna Ortega, Jean Smart

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Last year’s Emmy winner, Jeff Hiller (from Somebody Somewhere), and Ike Barinholtz (The Studio) aren’t competing this year. However, five of last year’s nominees are back in the running: Harrison Ford and Michael Urie for Shrinking, Ebon Moss-Bachrach for The Bear, Colman Domingo for The Four Seasons, and Bowen Yang, who performed on SNL for half a season before leaving. The TV Academy might give Yang one last nomination – they’ve done it before with SNL cast members like Amy Poehler, Kristen Wiig, Bill Hader, and Kate McKinnon. It’s also possible voters will recognize both Yang and Marcello Hernández, potentially signaling a changing of the guard with two nominations.

I feel pretty confident about the guys from Shrinking – they seem like sure things. But honestly, with everything else, it’s anyone’s guess! I’m expecting Moss-Bachrach to be recognized, but I’m a little worried The Bear might not hold up as well this year. Last year, I really thought Paul W. Downs was a lock for Hacks, and he didn’t even get nominated, but I’m still hoping to see him back in the mix for the final season. I’m just less sure about Tyler James Williams. That snub last year made me wonder if his three-year run with Abbott Elementary is over, or if it was just a one-time thing.

I’m predicting some new names will be nominated this year. Nick Offerman, despite his excellent work on Parks and Recreation, never received a nomination for that show. However, he’s since won an Emmy and been nominated four times for The Last of Us. His role as Elle Fanning’s wrestling-dad in Margo’s Got Money Troubles could finally earn him a comedy nomination. Andrew Scott’s performance as the cunning CEO on The Comeback might also attract attention, even though the show wasn’t previously recognized in supporting categories. But I’m most hoping to see Daniel Radcliffe nominated; he’s been a comedic standout this season as a worried documentarian in The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins.

Here’s who people are predicting will be involved: Paul W. Downs, Harrison Ford, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Nick Offerman, Daniel Radcliffe, Michael Urie, and Bowen Yang.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Hannah Einbinder is the frontrunner to win again for her role in the final season of Hacks, so she’s a safe bet for your predictions. Jessica Williams, who has been nominated twice before, is also likely to be nominated again this year thanks to the expected success of Shrinking. Janelle James and Sheryl Lee Ralph have both been nominated for Abbott Elementary for the last four years, which is unusual for a show that’s been on the air for so long. The last show to receive multiple nominations in the Supporting Actress (Comedy) category after its fourth season was Sex and the City back in 2004.

Okay, so looking at the lead actress in a comedy series race, Liza Colón-Zayas has won before, and honestly, Carol Burnett is always a contender. But I’m starting to think their chances aren’t quite as strong this year. The Bear hasn’t been as impactful lately, and Palm Royale is already off the air. I think Michelle Pfeiffer, who’s fantastic in Margo’s Got Money Troubles – playing a former Hooters waitress, which is a fun role! – and Laurie Metcalf, who’s always an Emmy favorite with her part as a tough mom and mayoral candidate in Big Mistakes, are going to be seriously tough competition this time around.

With the success of The Comeback, Laura Silverman could finally receive an Emmy nomination for her documentary work as Jane. After years of being ignored, Erika Alexander deserves recognition for her outstanding performance in The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins. And while Megan Stalter might be nominated for the final season of Hacks, voters could also acknowledge Robby Hoffman, who is consistently delivering memorable scenes as the show ends.

Here are some predicted outcomes or potential winners: Erika Alexander, Hannah Einbinder, Janelle James, Laurie Metcalf, Michelle Pfeiffer, Sheryl Lee Ralph, and Jessica Williams.

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

This year’s competition features returning champions. Beef, the 2023 winner, is back with a second season, while Richard Gadd, who won in 2024 with Baby Reindeer, presents the intense new series Half Man. Jack Thorne, the 2025 winner with Adolescence, brings a television adaptation of Lord of the Flies. These three shows represent some of the most acclaimed and diverse options available.

Both “The Beast in Me” and “All Her Fault” initially felt like companion pieces. Each series features award-winning actresses – Claire Danes and Sarah Snook – and tells stories centered around believing women’s accounts, blending a sensational, yet compelling, style with elements of true crime, despite being works of fiction. Their nominations at the Golden Globes and other awards give them a strong position among this year’s contenders.

HBO hasn’t received multiple nominations in this category since 2021, when both Mare of Easttown and I May Destroy You were nominated. This year, DTF St. Louis, a darkly comedic sex mystery created by Steven Conrad (known for Patriot), gives them their best shot at achieving that again. The show boasts a strong cast – including Jason Bateman, David Harbour, and Linda Cardellini – and has received generally positive reviews, making it a potential surprise contender for a nomination.

Last year, Netflix earned three nominations in this category and is aiming for even more this time around. Their contenders include the series Beef, Lord of the Flies, and The Beast in Me, along with new offerings like the historical drama Death by Lightning, the crime thriller Black Rabbit, and Ryan Murphy’s Monster: The Ed Gein Story. While previous seasons of Monster were nominated, this year Murphy’s Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette offers a more refined and potentially award-winning approach – blending the celebrity fascination typical of Murphy’s work with the high-society drama of shows like The Crown’s storylines about Princess Diana.

Here are the predicted outcomes: Beef, DTF St. Louis, Half Man, Lord of the Flies, and Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette.

Outstanding TV Movie

The TV Movie category is, as usual, a mixed bag of films that often feel like leftovers from the major studios. However, this year, two movies stand out: both tell touching stories about widows who develop surprising connections with younger men, suggesting this year’s selection isn’t all bad. Netflix is hoping to score an Emmy with Remarkably Bright Creatures, which premiered over Mother’s Day weekend. The film stars Sally Field and Lewis Pullman as an unexpected pair in a charming coastal town, and features the delightful addition of Alfred Molina narrating as an octopus – it’s a potential winner!

Also debuting in May is Miss You, Love You, starring award-winning actress Allison Janney. The film, directed by Jim Rash and acquired by HBO at Sundance, tells the story of a widow who must work with her estranged son’s assistant (Andrew Rannells) to plan her husband’s funeral. While Rash is known for his comedic work – including playing Dean Pelton on Community – he also won an Oscar for co-writing the drama The Descendants, suggesting this movie could be surprisingly moving.

The remaining options are quite diverse. Hulu’s Swiped and Prime Video’s Deep Cover both came out last autumn, with Deep Cover receiving generally positive feedback. Swiped wasn’t as well-received by critics, but its portrayal of Bumble’s origins as a feminist success story is interesting enough to include given the limited number of choices.

Hulu’s Mike & Nick & Nick & Alice and Prime Video’s Deep Cover are both aiming to be the go-to action-comedy series, and People We Meet on Vacation is hoping to prove that romantic comedies can still be award-worthy.

Here are some anticipated book releases: Deep Cover, Miss You, Love You, People We Meet on Vacation, Remarkably Bright Creatures, and Swiped.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie

If the second season of Beef performs as well as the first at the Emmys, its main actors will likely be strong contenders for both nominations and awards. This is particularly encouraging for Oscar Isaac, who received an Emmy nomination in 2022 for Scenes From a Marriage but was surprisingly overlooked for his work in the David Simon-created HBO series Show Me a Hero back in 2016. Beef excels at revealing the vulnerabilities and flaws within its characters, and Isaac fully embraces that challenge. However, if awards were based solely on passion and commitment, Matthew Rhys of The Beast in Me might easily win his second Emmy (following his win for The Americans in 2018). His portrayal of a potentially dangerous neighbor is so intense and captivating that it’s no surprise he was nominated for numerous awards leading up to the Emmys.

With Isaac and Rhys already nominated, the remaining three slots are highly competitive. Jamie Bell has a strong chance at winning a major award, potentially his first since Billy Elliot, for his role in Richard Gadd’s intense exploration of masculinity in Half Man. Charlie Hunnam also received early nominations from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and Actor Awards for his performance in Monster: The Ed Gein Story. Actors playing monstrous characters have historically done well at the Emmys – just look at Evan Peters and Cooper Koch in previous years. Paul Anthony Kelly delivers a compelling performance as John F. Kennedy Jr., but he might be overlooked due to the standout performances of Bell, Hunnam, and Riz Ahmed, who plays an actor auditioning for James Bond in Bait.

Netflix has two shows with strong performances from their male leads that could end up splitting votes. Death by Lightning features excellent work from Michael Shannon and Matthew Macfadyen, who play President James Garfield and his assassin, and both deserve award nominations. However, since the show came out in November, I worry they might be overlooked. Black Rabbit, which premiered even earlier in September, also has a potential nominee – Jason Bateman – but he’s also being considered for a supporting role in another show, which could further complicate things.

Predictions: Jamie Bell, Charlie Hunnam, Oscar Isaac, Matthew Macfadyen, Matthew Rhys

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie

Carey Mulligan delivers a standout performance in Beef as Oscar Isaac’s frustrated wife – it’s powerful, funny, and often unlikeable in the best way. While Ali Wong won an Emmy for the first season, Mulligan faced a particularly strong comparison to the Kennedy family. Meanwhile, Sarah Pidgeon shines in Love Story, quickly establishing herself as a major talent. She carries the show with confidence and brings a captivating beauty and grace reminiscent of Carolyn Bessette Kennedy, even alongside a talented cast and complex storyline.

It once looked like Claire Danes and Sarah Snook would be the main contenders for leading roles in dramatic TV movies. While Carey Mulligan and Naomi Pidgeon have become strong competitors this spring, I still believe Danes and Snook are likely to receive nominations.

With one spot still available, who will earn a nomination? Will Tessa Thompson be recognized for her role in the popular Netflix series His & Hers, playing part of a former married couple investigating a murder? Or will Emmy veterans Kerry Washington or Elisabeth Moss secure a nomination for the surprisingly addictive, though critically panned, Imperfect Women? Alternatively, could Sally Field (Remarkably Bright Creatures) or Allison Janney (Miss You, Love You) break the streak and become the first film nominee in this category since Laura Dern in 2018 for The Tale?

Predictions: Claire Danes, Carey Mulligan, Sarah Pidgeon, Sarah Snook, Tessa Thompson

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie

It’s clearly strange that everyone from DTF St. Louis is being submitted as a supporting actor. Unlike films with large ensembles and no central characters, this show has definite leads. While it’s complicated by the fact that Jason Bateman and David Harbour are also promoting Black Rabbit and Stranger Things, they are undeniably the main stars of their show – and that includes Linda Cardellini. You could even argue that Charles Melton (Beef) and Richard Gadd (Half Man) are co-leads, but let’s not get bogged down in category debates right now. The important thing is that these actors have significant roles and should get noticed by Emmy voters.

When it comes to supporting actors, the many bearded faces in Death by Lightning seem likely to be strong contenders. While Bradley Whitford (playing James Blaine) and Shea Whigham (as Roscoe Conkling) both give excellent performances, Nick Offerman has a particularly compelling role as Chester A. Arthur, transforming from a tough party leader to Garfield’s devoted vice president.

Though Calvin Klein and Chester A. Arthur lived very different lives, Alessandro Nivola’s acting could earn him Emmy recognition for portraying both of them.

Here are the predicted winners: Richard Gadd, David Harbour, Charles Melton, Alessandro Nivola, Nick Offerman, and Shea Whigham.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie

I’m really looking forward to seeing the dynamic between Cailee Spaeny, playing this clever Gen-Z character in Beef, and the incredible Youn Yuh-jung as a seriously tough CEO. And honestly, I’m also fascinated to see Naomi Watts in Love Story – she’s bringing Jackie Kennedy back to life, and it’s wild how much her voice sounds just like her! This competition for the trophy feels like it’s going to be absolutely captivating.

She’ll be up against some impressive fellow nominees. I predict Grace Gummer will receive her first major award nomination for playing Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg in Love Story. This nomination could be the start of a long line of accolades, just like her mother’s!

Linda Cardellini might have an advantage due to the award category she’s in, but a nomination isn’t guaranteed. She’s competing against Betty Gilpin, a three-time Emmy nominee who plays a presidential widow in Death by Lightning, and Laurie Metcalf, a twelve-time nominee and four-time winner, who portrays the woman who raised both Norman Bates and Leatherface in Monster. You could even argue she was the most terrifying character! (But really, it was Ed Gein.)

Predictions: Linda Cardellini, Betty Gilpin, Grace Gummer, Cailee Spaeny, Naomi Watts, Youn Yuh-jung

We previously misstated where to watch The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins. It actually airs on NBC.

2026-05-02 16:04