Is the US Economy Wearing Spanx? GDP Drama Unfolds! 🍑📉

by

Mark your calendars, folks! On Tuesday at 13:30 GMT, the BEA will drop its latest GDP mixtape-er, report-for Q3. Analysts are betting on a 3.2% annualized growth rate, slightly less sizzling than Q2’s 3.8%. Yawn. At this rate, the economy’s growth chart looks like a poorly maintained rollercoaster 🎢.

Growth? Pfft. The US economy’s been playing hot potato with contraction all year. Remember that 0.5% dip in March? Now we’re back to “healthy progress” (eye-roll). But hey, why fret about growth when the real party’s in the labor market? Spoiler: It’s a snoozefest. The Fed’s probably staring into a crystal ball 🎱 wondering if unemployment will stop gatecrashing the inflation party.

Let’s Talk Inflation-The GDP Deflator Edition

The GDP Price Index (aka GDP deflator) hit 2.1% in Q2. Not too shabby, considering Q1’s 3.8% drama. But brace yourselves-this is the economic equivalent of your aunt Carol’s “healthy” casserole. Tastes fine, but you’re not sure what’s in it.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model says, “Hold my beer,” and predicts 3.5% growth for Q3 2025. Not an official forecast, mind you-just their “best guess” based on data. Because nothing says confidence like a model named after a Southern city 🤠.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs… Or the Lack Thereof

Q2’s job market was all sunshine and lattes, keeping consumption stable. But Q3? The labor market’s having a bit of a “meh” moment, with unemployment ticking up to 4.6% in November. The Fed’s probably tearing their hair out over the 64K jobs added-except August and September got downgraded by 33K combined. October’s data? Missing, thanks to the government shutdown. Classic.

So, will GDP hit 3%? Maybe. Will it crater? Also maybe. The economy’s basically flipping a coin while juggling chainsaws 🔥.

What Happens When GDP Meets USD?

Markets are prepping for a USD wobble when the report drops. With holiday-weekend energy and low trading volumes, even a sneeze could send the dollar south. A bad GDP number? That’s a full-blown flu season for the greenback. A good one? Just a temporary caffeine boost for USD bulls before reality kicks in.

“The DXY’s clinging to 98.30 like a bad Tinder date,” says Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet’s Sherlock Holmes of forex. “Technical indicators? Bearish. Moving averages? Also bearish. This chart’s mood is basically ‘get me outta here.’”

Bednarik adds: “If GDP tanks, the DXY might revisit its September lows. But if it defies odds? Bulls get a participation trophy-until 98.60 smacks them back down. The dollar’s 2025 resolution: ‘Be less dramatic.’”

Read More

2025-12-23 16:02