Is Bittensor Set for a Dramatic 115% Surge? Spot Buyers Are in on the Secret!

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Ah, Bittensor (TAO), that delightful little token now flirting with $268, down a dainty 3.5% over the past week. Yet, lo and behold, two consecutive days of exchange outflows suggest our dear spot buyers are positioning themselves with a cheeky twinkle in their eye for something rather grand.

This AI-centric darling has been a splendid fixture on CoinGecko’s trending list, boasting a rather impressive 22.5% uptick year-to-date. It did have a rather audacious peak near $310 on March 20 before deciding to correct itself, but fear not! This pullback might just be crafting the handle of a much larger and fabulous pattern. The delightful disconnect between the waning price and the persistent spot buying is the juicy tension at play here, and one cannot help but wonder what the buyers are seeing on the daily chart.

Outflows Slow but Persist, and the Chart Reveals Why

Exchange flow data from Coinglass reveals TAO recorded a rather extravagant $3.71 million in net outflows on March 21, followed by a modest $2.06 million on March 22. That translates to a handsome $5.77 million fluttering away from exchanges whilst Bittensor was busily correcting itself.

However, I must say, the pace has clearly slowed. The 44% drop from $3.71 million to $2.06 million reveals that while spot buyers are still accumulating, they’re doing so with the caution of a cat crossing a busy street. They haven’t stopped buying entirely, but rushing in has become so last season. This hesitation perhaps aligns with the short positioning that’s brewing in the derivatives pot, which we shall explore shortly.

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The daily chart on Coinbase illustrates what these cautious buyers might be positioned for. Since January, the TAO price has taken to carving a charming cup-and-handle formation. The rounded bottom of this delightful cup stretches from early February through mid-March, with both the left and right rims flirting around the $310 neckline. The current pullback from $310 is forming the handle-a small consolidation before the potential breakout, darling.

The measured move from this whimsical pattern targets a dazzling 115% upside from the neckline. However, let us not pop the champagne just yet; the pattern only activates with a daily close above $310, also known as the cup’s neckline level. Until then, the handle could deepen further. Whether it breaks depends on the derivatives’ positioning and the conviction of those buyers already accumulating-hold onto your hats!

Shorts Are Building Again, and That Could Be the Fuel

Now, the derivatives picture adds a crucial layer of intrigue. On March 15, when TAO was building momentum towards $310, open interest peaked at a staggering $199.73 million with a negatively charged funding rate of -0.0247%. This intoxicating mix of rising open interest and negative funding meant shorts were the reigning monarchs of the day. When the price surged through resistance anyway, those shorts were forced to cover, providing a delightful rally to $310.

A similar setup is brewing now, my dear. Since March 22, open interest has climbed from $165.48 million to $173.45 million-a sprightly 5% increase. The funding rate has flipped back to negative, landing at -0.002%. This current short buildup is less aggressive than the -0.0247% reading from March 15, a mere 90% smaller! But the direction remains the same. Derivatives traders seem to be betting on further consolidation or decline, while our spot buyers continue to whisk tokens off exchanges, albeit cautiously.

This delightful tension between short positioning and cautious spot accumulation creates quite the squeeze fuel if the neckline chooses to break. The shorts provide a forced buying frenzy, while the spot holders lay a solid foundation. Together, they craft the perfect stage for an encore performance. But wait-there’s one more indicator suggesting the bulls might just be waiting in the wings.

Our good friend, the Smart Money Index (SMI), which tracks the positioning of informed participants during key trading hours, remains triumphantly above its signal line. The SMI has been on the rise since the March lows, despite the price pulling back from $310. Oh, what a plot twist!

Informed traders have not abandoned ship, which perfectly aligns with our exchange outflow data. Bravo!

Bittensor Price Breaks Out or Breaks Down As Key Levels Surface

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), that ever-so-charming momentum indicator, adds one final layer of confirmation. Between December 7 and March 22, TAO’s price made a lower low while the RSI delivered a higher low. This standard bullish divergence on the daily chart suggests downside momentum is gracefully fading even as prices frolic within the handle.

For our bullish case to take center stage, TAO needs a daily close above $299, the 0.236 Fibonacci level, followed by a triumphant push through the $310 neckline. Above that, the targets open up magnificently toward $364 and $428. If the AI narrative strengthens and the cup-and-handle decides to play out fully, we could be looking at a dazzling 1.618 extension at $532 and a projected target near $670!

On the flip side, should fortune frown, $260 stands as the immediate floor. Below that, $242 is the next support level to ponder. A daily close under $172 would spell doom for the entire cup-and-handle structure. Currently, a daily close above $310 is what our Bittensor bull desperately requires. So, dear reader, keep your monocles polished and your wits about you!

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2026-03-23 17:06