Gold, that ancient and ever-reliable blighter, was up to its old tricks again on Tuesday, flirting with $4,305 per ounce-just a hop, skip, and a judiciously timed central bank intervention away from Octoberās all-time high of $4,381.
The yellow metal, much like a butler whoās just discovered the silver has been polished without his supervision, has been basking in the glow of investor panic. With the markets betting (76% chance, no less!) on yet another rate cut in January, goldās status as a non-yielding asset has never looked more⦠well, non-yielding. š¦šø
Goldās Glorious Run vs. Bitcoinās Bruised Ego
The US dollar, currently slouching toward a two-month low, has been playing the role of dutiful valet to goldās aristocrat, providing just the right tailwind to keep things interesting. Gold, ever the show-off, has surged a whopping 64% this year-its best performance since disco was still a thing (1979, for those keeping score).
Meanwhile, Bitcoin-that digital upstart-has been languishing around $86,000 like a party guest whoās just realized the champagneās run out. After a brutal selloff that vaporized $200 million in long positions, BTC remains a sad 30% below its October peak. Gold, of course, merely sips its tea and nods sympathetically. āš
The widening chasm between gold and Bitcoin has not gone unnoticed. Crypto trader MichaĆ«l van de Poppe, ever the optimist, pointed out that Bitcoinās RSI against gold has dipped below 30 for only the fourth time in history-a statistic that either means “buy now” or “abandon all hope,” depending on whom you ask.
For the fourth time in the history of #Bitcoin, the RSI against Gold is hitting <30.
The previous three times this occurred:
– Bottom in 2015 bear market.
– Bottom in 2018 bear market.
– Bottom in 2022 bear market.It’s not a guarantee, but it can clearly say that one of theā¦
– MichaĆ«l van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) December 15, 2025
Technical analysts, those modern-day soothsayers, are waving their charts like torches in a storm. One particularly enthusiastic fellow (misterrcrypto, if you must know) insists that the BTC/Gold pair is testing a long-term support line for the fourth time since 2019. The Z-Score is -1.76-which sounds ominous, like a golf score after a particularly disastrous round. ā³š¬
But letās not get ahead of ourselves. The macroeconomic landscape is about as predictable as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs. Inflationās still lurking, geopolitical tensions are simmering, and gold-ever the safe haven-is sitting pretty while Bitcoin sweats bullets.
The Fedās Latest Parlor Trick
The markets, ever the drama queens, are hanging on every scrap of US economic data like a debutante awaiting her first dance invitation. Thanks to a six-week government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been forced to cobble together employment reports for October and November-though key details (like Octoberās unemployment rate) are mysteriously absent. How very bureaucratic. šš¤·āāļø
Economists predict a modest 50,000 increase in payrolls and a 4.5% unemployment rate-numbers so bland they could put a caffeine addict to sleep. Still, even a hint of weakness could send the Fed scrambling for another rate cut, because why not?
The Fed, ever the cautious host, delivered a 25-basis-point cut last week but hinted it might take a breather-unless, of course, it changes its mind. Fed Governor Stephen Miran, meanwhile, insists that inflation is “stable,” a statement that would be more convincing if prices werenāt currently behaving like a toddler on a sugar rush. šš
Whatās Next? (Spoiler: Nobody Knows)
Bitcoin options traders are eyeing the December 26 expiry like a pack of wolves circling a particularly plump sheep. With heavy positioning at the $100,000 strike, things could get⦠interesting. Silver, goldās flashier cousin, has more than doubled this year (121%, if youāre counting) but has taken a slight breather after hitting record highs.
So, will investors ditch gold for Bitcoin? Or will Bitcoin continue its impression of a deflating balloon? Stay tuned-the markets, much like a Wodehouse novel, are full of twists, turns, and the occasional misplaced monocle. š©š®
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2025-12-16 06:04