It has come to pass that Gold (XAU/USD), that ever-sought-after metal, has enjoyed a slight elevation in its fortunes. This increase, it is whispered, is due to the growing expectation that the Federal Reserve may, at long last, deem a reduction in interest rates to beā¦advisable. Indeed, a most agreeable rise of over 2% has been observed, despite the regrettable interruption of the US Thanksgiving festivities.
With the gentlemen of the Federal Reserve now observing a period of enforced silence – commencing on Saturday last – the attention of investors is naturally turning to the latest pronouncements concerning the state of the American economy.
A Golden Inclination: The Doves Make Themselves Heard
The week commenced with a decidedly favourable wind for Gold, as traders re-evaluated the possibility of a modest reduction – a mere 25 basis points, mind you – in December. Such a change would be a boon, naturally.
Mr. Stephen Miran, a Governor of the Federal Reserve, did recently express a willingness to support such a reduction, should his vote prove the deciding factor. A curious shift in sentiment, given his earlier preference for a rather more substantial adjustment of 50 basis points. One wonders what prompted such a change of heart!
President Williams of the New York Fed also intimated a willingness to ease the current monetary policy, declaring it āmodestly restrictiveā and suggesting further adjustments might be contemplated. A most judicious observation, one might add.
Gold experienced a cheerful advance of over 1.5% on Monday, and further gains on Tuesday, before settling into a state of placid composure. Reports indicated that private employers had, alas, parted ways with an average of 13,500 souls each week through November 8th. A regrettable state of affairs, though perhaps a catalyst for the aforementioned monetary considerations.
Gold to silver ratio (GTS) broke down a 14-year rising support. Immediate support comes at 72.
With gold price at $4,500 and GTS 72, silver to reach at least $62. This could be the case already next weekā¦This post is not an investment adviceā¦
– Rashad Hajiyev (@hajiyev_rashad) November 28, 2025
The latest figures from America revealed 216,000 initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week concluding November 22nd – a reduction of 6,000 from the prior period. Durable goods orders, meanwhile, rose by 0.5% in September, exceeding expectations. However, these numbers did not appear to unsettle the prevailing sentiment, and Gold maintained its position above $4,100 in anticipation of the holiday.
Trading was rather subdued on Friday, in truth, but Gold remained in a comfortably elevated position.
The Search for Further Guidance in American Numbers
The officials of the Federal Reserve being temporarily silenced, the discerning investor must now rely upon the latest economic data emanating from America to ascertain the likelihood of a rate reduction.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of a 25 basis point reduction in December are currently assessed at a rather substantial 85%. A hopeful prospect, to be sure.
The forthcoming week shall begin with the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday. A robust employment index – particularly a reading exceeding 50 – could bolster the American dollar and, consequently, exert some downward pressure upon Gold.
The ISM Services PMI will follow on Wednesday. Should this index fall below 50, signalling a contraction in the service sector, it could weaken the dollar and offer encouragement to Gold. A delicate balance, is it not?
Investors will also be keeping a watchful eye upon Thursdayās Challenger Job Cuts report. Layoffs surged to a most alarming 153,074 in October – a level not seen in 22 years! A significant decline in these figures would, of course, allay concerns regarding the labour market and potentially support the American dollar.
The BEA will release data concerning the PCE Price Index on Friday. However, given the inherent delays, this report pertains to September and is unlikely to cause much disturbance in the market.
A Technical Observation
The short-term outlook for Gold remains cautiously optimistic, though momentum has not, as yet, strengthened unduly.
Upon observing the daily chart, one finds that Gold trades comfortably above the 20-day Simple Moving Average and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the August-October rally at $4,125. The RSI remains steady near the 60 mark, exhibiting a ratherā¦ deliberate pace.
Support is to be found at $4,125, followed by $4,085 (the 20-day Simple Moving Average), $4,030 (the 50-day Simple Moving Average), and $3,970 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement). Should Gold seek higher ground, resistance lies at $4,245, followed by $4,300 and $4,380.
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2025-11-29 05:33