Free Money? Crypto’s Hopeful Sigh 😮

So, Trump, bless his heart, is promising everyone a “dividend.” Like we’re all shareholders in the Trump Organization. He announced this on One America News, which, if you haven’t been, let’s just say it’s a very…enthusiastic news source. Apparently, this windfall is thanks to tariffs. Tariffs! As if making everything more expensive is a gift. It immediately reminded everyone in crypto of the good old days of 2020-2021, back when stimulus checks were basically gift cards to the moon.

He claims we’ve collected $215 billion in tariffs since April 2025 and that it’ll climb to a trillion annually. A trillion! Where does he *get* these numbers? My grocery bill certainly isn’t reflecting a tariff surplus. But getting that money into our hands? That’s…complicated. There’s Congress, which functions at roughly the speed of continental drift, and the Supreme Court, which, let’s be honest, is always ready for a good argument. 🙄

The Political Battle Over Stimulus Checks

Senator Josh Hawley, always thinking of the common folk (or his reelection), proposed giving everyone $600. $600! That’s, like, two tanks of gas and a sad lunch. A family of four gets $2,400, enough for…a slightly less sad lunch and a smaller tank of gas. It’s progress, I guess.

Of course, not everyone’s on board. Several Republican senators think it’s “ridiculous” because, you know, $37 trillion in debt isn’t enough. Apparently, the responsible thing to do is let the debt continue to balloon while simultaneously denying people a small check. Fiscal conservatism at its finest. 🧐

Economists, those party poopers, are warning it’ll backfire. JPMorgan’s David Kelly said it’s like “dessert before spinach.” Technically accurate, but I’d rather have dessert. The logic is, more cash in the economy means higher prices, especially considering tariffs *already* make things pricier, thanks to all that lovely surplus.

What Happened Last Time: The 2020-2021 Crypto Boom

Oh, the memories. Those stimulus checks were magical. Bitcoin exploded from $6,000 to $69,000. I’m still kicking myself for not emptying my 401k back then. If I’d thrown all $3,200 in stimulus money into Bitcoin, I’d be sipping margaritas on a yacht right now. Instead? More sensible shoes.

But the *real* insanity was in altcoins. Bitcoin started looking, dare I say, stable. Everyone ran screaming into Ethereum, Dogecoin, Shiba Inu… all sorts of questionable projects. “Alt season” they called it. It was less investing and more digital Beanie Babies. 🐕

A Harvard study confirmed it. Stimulus checks made people more willing to play financial roulette with their money. Looser budgets + boredom + inflation fears = a very chaotic crypto market. It was…a time.

Why This Time Could Be Different

Things are different now. Interest rates aren’t at zero. The Fed isn’t just printing money and tossing it out of helicopters. It’s all very…responsible. Less fun, but responsible.

And crypto itself has grown up. Now we have spot Bitcoin ETFs, which basically means grown-ups are getting involved. Billions are flowing into regulated products. BlackRock even has a Bitcoin fund. BlackRock! It’s like realizing your eccentric uncle is a secret millionaire.

Some guy named Jasper De Maere from Wintermute (whatever that is) pointed out on LinkedIn (as one does) that in 2020 crypto didn’t even have the infrastructure for all the money. Now, it’s slightly less of a Wild West. Fewer people chasing quick gains, or so they say.

The crypto market is larger now, around $4 trillion. Bigger boats move slower, I guess. Which means the impact of stimulus might be, well, less explosive.

The Government Shutdown Factor

Oh, and to add to the drama, the government shut down on October 1, 2025. Because why not? Bitcoin jumped above $119,000 because panicked investors figured the Fed would have to lower interest rates. It’s all very logical, when you think about it. 🤷‍♀️

The shutdown messes with economic data, which means everyone is just guessing. Uncertainty is good for Bitcoin, apparently. It’s now considered a safe haven from…the US government. Which is a sentence I never thought I’d write.

But the shutdown also slows down regulations. The SEC put everything on hold. Solana ETFs? Delayed. Everyone’s frustrated. The partisan bitterness is increasing. It’s a mess, really.

Legal Threats and Reality Checks

The Supreme Court is hearing arguments about Trump’s tariff authority on November 5th. Apparently, the lower courts didn’t think he had the authority. If Trump loses, we might have to refund $750 billion to $1 trillion. So much for that stimulus. 💸

Even if the tariffs survive, Congress still needs to approve the payments. Good luck with that. And those revenue projections? A little optimistic. The Treasury reported $214.9 billion so far in 2025. It’s substantial, sure, but not *trillion* substantial.

The Road Ahead: Stimulus or Speculation?

The market is optimistic. The CoinDesk 20 Index (whatever *that* is) is up 48% in 2025. People are predicting Bitcoin will hit $130,000, and some even say $150,000. It’s all very exciting. Or foolish.

Will Congress actually send checks? Will the Supreme Court let them? How much money will actually end up in crypto? These are excellent questions.

Some crypto analyst on X (formerly Twitter, which continues to be a strange place) thinks it’ll be “a massive catalyst.” Others say, “Hold your horses.” Different interest rates, a more mature market…it’s not 2021 anymore.

And the Fed meeting on October 29th? Everyone thinks they’ll lower rates. Lower rates = more money floating around = good for crypto. Combined with stimulus, maybe things will get crazy again.

Final Take: Waiting for Clarity

Trump’s stimulus plan has everyone in crypto looking hopeful. 2020-2021 proved stimulus can cause explosions, especially with altcoins. But there’s a lot that needs to happen. Legal battles, Congressional infighting, questions about the tarifas… it’s a lot to unpack.

Crypto has changed. Big investors are involved, interest rates are up, and the market isn’t in crisis mode. These factors could dampen the impact of any stimulus checks.

For now, everyone is betting on hope. Will Trump’s “dividend” actually happen? Will it spark another altcoin frenzy? We’ll have to wait and see. Until then, I’m stocking up on sensible shoes.

2025-10-08 03:05