Final Golden Globes Predictions: ‘Conclave,’ ‘Emilia Pérez’ and ‘Wicked’ Expected to Lead Nominations

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As a seasoned critic with a soft spot for the art of storytelling and comedy, I must say that this year’s lineup is nothing short of extraordinary! The array of talents showcased here is a testament to the richness and diversity of our contemporary scene.

And we’re off.

Voters for the Golden Globe Awards have received their ballots and are now contemplating their picks for the top accomplishments in both film and television. With 15 movie categories (half of them divided between drama and comedy/musical), the Golden Globes serve as a precursor to the Oscars. In the past, the awards were accused of leaning towards celebrity status rather than quality, as seen with their excessive praise for the 2010 film “The Tourist” starring Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie. However, with a refreshed voting system in place, the Golden Globes have become more selective, opting for more diverse choices that reflect global cinema. The acknowledgment of Alma Pöysti for the Finnish film “Fallen Leaves” last year symbolizes this shift towards a more discerning approach.

What can we expect this time around?

Comedy/Musical

The competition within these categories is turning out to be quite intense. “Emilia Pérez” by Netflix and “Wicked” from Universal are currently dominating. In “Emilia,” Karla Sofía Gascón, who could make history as the first transgender performer to win in a film category, delivers an exceptional performance. On the other hand, Cynthia Erivo’s emotionally charged portrayal of Elphaba in “Wicked” has garnered significant attention. Lastly, Mikey Madison, playing a stripper involved with a Russian oligarch’s son in “Anora,” produced by Neon, is earning praise for her bold and funny performance. This has made her a strong contender at both the Globes and the Oscars.

The lead comedy actor race is less crowded. On the heels of his Cannes best actor win for Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Kinds of Kindness,” Jesse Plemons could score his first nom. But he’ll have to contend with Glen Powell’s shape-shifting performance in Richard Linklater’s “Hit Man,” as well as Ryan Reynolds’s motormouthed return as one-half of “Deadpool & Wolverine”’s costumed duo. Aside from those, the field is wide open.

Drama

These categories are brimming with A-list talent. The Best Actor category boasts heavyweights such as Adrien Brody from “The Brutalist”, Ralph Fiennes from “Conclave”, Colman Domingo from “Sing Sing” and Timothée Chalamet from “A Complete Unknown”. They are all prominently featured in their respective films, giving powerful performances that tug at the heartstrings.

Actress Angelina Jolie has seen a revival in her acting career through her depiction of a troubled diva in “Maria”. However, she faces stiff competition from Tilda Swinton, powerfully portraying a terminally ill woman in “The Room Next Door”, and Nicole Kidman, who delivers an emotionally charged performance as an executive involved with an intern in “Babygirl”. With six nominees per category, there’s potential for unexpected wins – maybe Pamela Anderson could surprise us with her role in “The Last Showgirl”?

Supporting Performances

The supporting actor race offers a sturdy slate, including Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) and Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”), who commit cinematic grand larceny with their scene-stealing work. And don’t count out “Challengers” ace Josh O’Connor, who has been largely overlooked so far.

All eyes are on the supporting actress category, which could be one of the most A-list heavy in years. Music heavyweights like Selena Gomez (“Emilia Pérez”) and Ariana Grande (“Wicked”) should get the call, alongside Jennifer Lopez in Amazon MGM’s “Unstoppable.” And “Joker: Folie à Deux” may have bombed, yet Lady Gaga could hear her name when the nominations are announced on Dec. 9. Star power still goes a long way at the Globes.

The final Golden Globe predictions are below, which also includes the television categories.

In the predictions, Edward Berger’s “Conclave” is expected to take the top spot with seven nominations, while Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked” is anticipated to trail closely with six.

See all Academy Award predictions

EbMaster Awards Circuit: Oscars

Motion Picture (Drama) 

  • “The Brutalist” (A24)
  • “Conclave” (Focus Features)
  • “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
  • “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
  • “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
  • “Sing Sing” (A24)

Alternate: “Blitz”

Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical) 

  • “Anora” (Neon)
  • “Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios)
  • “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
  • “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
  • “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

Alternate: “The Substance”

Actor (Drama) 

  • Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist” (A24)
  • Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Daniel Craig, “Queer” (A24)
  • Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing” (A24)
  • Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave” (Focus Features)
  • John David Washington, “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)

Alternate: Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”

Actor (Comedy or Musical) 

  • Jesse Eisenberg, “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Hugh Grant, “Heretic” (A24)
  • Jesse Plemons, “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Glen Powell, “Hit Man” (Netflix)
  • Ryan Reynolds, “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
  • Sebastian Stan, “A Different Man” (A24)

Alternate: Michael Keaton, “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice”

Actress (Drama) 

  • Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
  • Angelina Jolie, “Maria” (Netflix)
  • Nicole Kidman, “Babygirl” (A24)
  • Tilda Swinton, “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • Kate Winslet, “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)

Alternate: Pamela Anderson, “The Last Showgirl”

Actress (Comedy or Musical) 

  • Amy Adams, “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
  • Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
  • Mikey Madison, “Anora” (Neon)
  • Demi Moore, “The Substance” (Mubi)
  • Zendaya, “Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios)

Alternate: June Squibb, “Thelma”

Supporting Actor 

  • Jonathan Bailey, “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
  • Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Clarence Maclin, “Sing Sing” (A24)
  • Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist” (A24)
  • Stanley Tucci, “Conclave” 
  • Denzel Washington, “Gladiator II” 

Alternate: Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”

Supporting Actress 

  • Danielle Deadwyler, “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
  • Selena Gomez. “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
  • Ariana Grande, “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
  • Saoirse Ronan, “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
  • Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave” (Focus Features)
  • Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)

Alternate: Jennifer Lopez, “Unstoppable” 

Director 

  • Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
  • Sean Baker, “Anora” (Neon)
  • Edward Berger, “Conclave” (Focus Features)
  • Jon M. Chu, “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
  • Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist” (A24)
  • Denis Villeneuve, “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

Alternate: Ridley Scott, “Gladiator II”

Screenplay 

  • “Anora” (Neon) — Sean Baker
  • “The Brutalist” (A24) — Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
  • “Conclave” (Focus Features) — Peter Straughan
  • “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) — Jesse Eisenberg
  • “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Pedro Almodóvar
  • “The Substance” (Mubi) — Coralie Fargeat

Alternate: “Sing Sing”

Original Score 

  • “The Brutalist” (A24) — Daniel Blumberg
  • “Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
  • “Conclave” (Focus Features) — Volker Bertelmann
  • “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Hans Zimmer
  • “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) — Jon Batiste
  • “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) — Kris Bowers

Alternate: “The Room Next Door” 

Original Song 

  • “Forbidden Road” from “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
  • “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
  • “Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
  • “Folie à Deux” from “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
  • “Sick in the Head” from “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • “Beautiful That Way” from “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions)

Alternate: “Not My Fault” from “Mean Girls”

Animated Feature  

  • “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
  • “Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
  • “Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
  • “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)
  • “Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
  • “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)

Alternate: “Moana 2”

Non-English Language Film 

  • “All We Imagine as Light” from India 
  • “Emilia Pérez” from France 
  • “Flow” from Latvia 
  • “Kneecap” from Ireland 
  • “I’m Still Here” from Brazil 
  • “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany  

Alternate: “The Girl with the Needle”

Cinematic Box Office Achievement 

  • “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
  • “Deadpool and Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
  • “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
  • “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
  • “Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
  • “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
  • “Twisters” (Universal Pictures)
  • “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

Alternate: “A Quiet Place: Day One” 

TV Series (Drama)

  • “Fallout” (Prime Video)
  • “House of the Dragon” (HBO/Max)
  • “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
  • “Presumed Innocent” (Apple TV+)
  • “Shōgun” (FX)
  • “Squid Game” (Netflix)

Alternate: “The Diplomat”

TV Series (Comedy or Musical)

  • “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
  • “Agatha All Along” (Disney+)
  • “Hacks” (HBO/Max)
  • “A Man on the Inside” (Netflix)
  • “Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
  • “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

Alternate: “The Bear”

TV Series (Limited or TV Movie)

  • “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
  • “Disclaimer” (Apple TV+)
  • “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)
  • “The Penguin” (HBO/Max)
  • “Ripley” (Netflix)
  • “True Detective: Night Country” (HBO/Max)

Alternate: “American Sports Story: Aaron Hernandez”

TV Actor (Drama)

  • Jake Gyllenhaal, “Presumed Innocent” (Apple TV+)
  • Lee Jung-jae, “Squid Game” (Netflix)
  • Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
  • Eddie Redmayne, “The Day of the Jackal”
  • Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun” (FX)
  • Billy Bob Thornton, “Landman” (Paramount+)

Alternate: Rufus Sewell, “The Diplomat”

TV Actor (Comedy or Musical)

  • Brian Jordan Alvarez, “English Teacher” (Hulu)
  • Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
  • Ray Romano, “No Good Deed” (Netflix)
  • Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
  • Vince Vaughn, “Bad Monkey” (Apple TV+)
  • Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear” (FX)

Alternate: Theo James, “The Gentleman”

TV Actor (Limited Series or Movie)

  • Nicholas Alexander Chavez, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)
  • Colin Farrell, “The Penguin” (HBO/Max)
  • Richard Gadd, “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
  • Cooper Koch, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)
  • Josh Andres Rivera, “American Sports Story: Aaron Hernandez” (FX)
  • Andrew Scott, “Ripley” (Netflix)

Alternate: Tom Hollander, “Feud: Capote vs. The Swans”

TV Actress (Drama)

  • Marisa Abela, “Industry” (HBO/Max)
  • Kathy Bates, “Matlock” (CBS)
  • Myha’la Herrold, “Industry” (HBO/Max)
  • Keri Russell, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
  • Anna Sawai, “Shōgun” (FX)
  • Richard Gadd, “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)

Alternate: Maya Erskine, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith”

TV Actress (Comedy)

  • Kristen Bell, “Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
  • Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
  • Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear” ‘(FX)
  • Kathryn Hahn, “Agatha All Along” (Disney+)
  • Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO/Max)
  • Kristen Wiig, “Palm Royale” (Apple TV+)

Alternate: Selena Gomez, “Only Murders in the Building”

TV Actress (Limited Series or Movie)

  • Cate Blanchett, “Disclaimer” (Apple TV+)
  • Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country” (HBO/Max)
  • Cristin Milioti, “The Penguin” (HBO/Max)
  • Lola Petticrew, “Say Nothing” (FX)
  • Natalie Portman, “Lady in the Lake” (Apple TV+)
  • Sofía Vergara, “Griselda” (Netflix)

Alternate: Julianne Moore, “Mary and George”

Supporting Actor (Television)

  • Javier Bardem, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)
  • Robert Downey Jr., “The Sympathizer” (HBO/Max)
  • Harrison Ford, “Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
  • Jack Lowden, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
  • Peter Sarsgaard, “Presumed Innocent” (Apple TV+)
  • Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)

Alternate: Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”

Supporting Actress (Television)

  • Carol Burnett, “Palm Royale” (Apple TV+)
  • Liza Colón-Zayas, “The Bear” (FX)
  • Jessica Gunning, “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
  • Patti LuPone, “Agatha All Along” (Disney+)
  • Nava Mau, “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
  • Meryl Streep, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

Alternate: Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”

Stand Up Comedy Performance

  • Ellen Degeneres, “For Your Approval” (Netflix)
  • Alex Edelman, “Just For Us” (HBO/Max)
  • Nikki Glaser, “Someday You’ll Die” (HBO/Max)
  • Adam Sandler, “Love You” (Netflix)
  • Ramy Youssef, “More Feelings” (HBO/Max)
  • Ali Wong, “Single Lady” (Netflix)

Alternate: Katt Williams, “Woke Foke”

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2024-12-06 01:21