Every Single Thing Happening at the 2026 Oscars Live

Will Sinners win more than it loses?

The Best Picture race is definitely the main event, but how we define success isn’t always simple. For example, if Sinners wins Best Picture but Paul Thomas Anderson wins Best Director, some fans of Sinners might be disappointed. Likewise, if One Battle After Another wins Best Picture but Sinners wins more awards overall, that victory might not feel as significant.

I’m predicting that Sinners will win five Oscars – a great achievement for any movie – but could end up tied with The Turning Point and The Color Purple as the film with the most Oscar losses, at eleven. To win more awards than losses, Sinners would need to win nine Oscars, something only seven films have ever done. Amazingly, it’s possible! Sinners is almost guaranteed to win awards for Original Screenplay, Original Score, and Casting. It’s also likely to win one or two acting awards, and could potentially win Best Picture. If it does win Best Picture, it will probably also win either Cinematography or Editing. Plus, it’s expected to win two awards from the categories of Costumes, Production Design, Makeup/Hairstyling, or Sound. This puts the film on track for eight or nine wins total, so keep that in mind as you watch the awards show tonight.

Tim-dication or Chala-mity?

The Best Actor category is shaping up to be one of the most exciting races at the Oscars, second only to Best Picture. Two weeks ago, Timothée Chalamet, who was previously considered the favorite, caused a public backlash with critical comments about ballet and opera. This controversy hit right as Oscar voting was ending, and he had already lost ground at both the BAFTA and SAG awards. Now, the question is whether the Oscars will punish him for his remarks – like the downfall of the arrogant character in Don Giovanni – or if he’ll be forgiven and achieve a triumphant victory, similar to the heroine in Swan Lake.

How many Best Picture nominees will go home empty-handed?

The Best Picture race is quickly narrowing down to just a few frontrunners – One Battle and Sinners – which doesn’t bode well for the other nominees. Hamnet seems secure, and Frankenstein is expected to win at least one award for its technical achievements. The film that doesn’t win the International Feature award between The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value will likely be shut out completely. F1 and Marty Supreme are only really contenders in one category each – Sound and Best Actor, respectively – and will have a disappointing night if they don’t win those. As for Bugonia and Train Dreams, they’re just happy to be nominated.

Will the craft categories tip off a Sinners surprise?

While other movies are predicted to win awards for things like visuals, editing, music, and sound, Ryan Coogler’s film is a strong contender in those categories as well. If Sinners surprisingly wins one of these technical awards early in the ceremony, it could be a sign that it’s in line for a major win later on.

I’m bringing you the view from Mezzanine Two

After my usual $25 smoothie from Erewhon, I’m feeling energized and ready to offer expert commentary on the Oscars! I’m currently on the mezzanine level of the Dolby Theater, frantically searching for an outlet to charge my phone. I’ll be sharing what it’s like inside the show all night – hopefully from a seat with a good view, as they’re pretty high up!

Keep an eye on these categories tonight

The awards race is incredibly tight! Both One Battle After Another and Sinners are leading contenders for Best Picture. The Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress categories are also very competitive, with Michael B. Jordan, Timothée Chalamet, and Wagner Moura all vying for Actor, and Amy Madigan, Wunmi Mosaku, and Teyana Taylor competing for Supporting Actress. This year introduces a new Best Casting award, and Sinners and KPop Demon Hunters are going head-to-head with their performances in the Best Original Song category.