As a seasoned awards prognosticator with years of experience under my belt, I must say that this year’s race for the coveted Academy Awards is shaping up to be quite the nail-biter! The recent BAFTA longlists have certainly thrown a few curveballs into the mix.
One name that has caught my eye is Selena Gomez, who has managed to secure a spot on the supporting actress list for her performance in Emilia Pérez. Given her immense popularity and the Academy’s penchant for all things Netflix, I wouldn’t be surprised if she snags a SAG nod as well. That said, with such a talented field vying for five spots, it remains to be seen whether Gomez will ultimately make the cut.
On the other hand, someone who seems to be struggling to keep pace is Danielle Deadwyler, whose performance in The Piano Lesson failed to resonate with BAFTA voters. As someone who has followed Deadwyler’s career closely, I can attest to her incredible talent and dedication to her craft. However, with the race for supporting actress shaping up to be a tight one, it seems that Deadwyler may find herself on the outside looking in this year.
All in all, it’s anyone’s game at this point! And who knows, maybe they’ll even give Denzel Washington the trophy just to see what he says! As always, I’ll be here to keep you updated as the race unfolds. Until next time, happy predicting!
Oh, and one last thing – did you hear about the actress who forgot to thank her agent during her acceptance speech? She said she was so excited, she thought she had a booking for a new Netflix series instead of an Oscar nomination! Talk about getting your wires crossed…
As a seasoned film critic with years of immersing myself in the world of cinema, I’ve come to appreciate the unique blend of anticipation and unpredictability that comes with predicting award winners. Over the past season, our “Oscar Futures” column has been an integral part of our weekly Gold Rush coverage, providing insights into the potential contenders for Hollywood’s most prestigious accolade.
However, due to our recent Golden Globes predictions, we find ourselves in a peculiar situation where the “Futures” column stands alone, serving as a prelude to the final edition before Oscar nominations. Rest assured, they’ll be reunited once again, but for now, let me share with you a glimpse of our predictions for Sunday’s ceremony.
While the Golden Globes may seem like a mere precursor in the grand scheme of things, they can occasionally hold significant sway over the eventual Oscar winners – as I’ve learned from years of observing the intricate dance between critics, audiences, and industry insiders. So if you missed our Gold Rush Golden Globes predictions, I encourage you to take a look at what we think could unfold at this year’s ceremony. (Read more here.)
Best Motion Picture – Drama
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nickel Boys
September 5
Are you tired of experts repeatedly labeling the Best Picture competition as “open”? If so, you can thank the Golden Globes for adding intrigue to the race with their influential vote. The contestants are evenly divided between dramas and musicals/comedies, ensuring excitement in both main categories. One film stands out as a clear frontrunner: The Brutalist, which not only secured nominations in all possible Golden Globe categories, but is also considered one of the heavyweight contenders for Best Picture, a status that often catches the attention of Golden Globe voters. (It’s worth mentioning that the organization behind the Globes also owns a stake in A24, although I don’t believe this affects the results – voters largely overlooked A24’s film Sing Sing – but it is still noteworthy.)
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Anora
Challengers
Emilia Pérez
A Real Pain
The Substance
Wicked
Four films received nominations for the Golden Globe’s prestigious categories of Picture, Director, and Screenplay. Three of these movies are contending in this round: “Anora”, “Emilia Pérez”, and “The Substance”. The nominations seem to favor “The Substance”, indicating a potential thrilling showdown between a screwball comedy and a Spanish-language musical at the Globes. While “Anora” has garnered more Oscar buzz, making it a safer choice, I’m inclined towards “Emilia Pérez” for two reasons. Firstly, it received 10 nominations, the second highest number in Golden Globe history. Secondly, since the Golden Globe’s membership is predominantly international, “Emilia Pérez” has consistently impressed foreign voters, often sweeping awards.
Oscar Futures: Emilia Bedevils BAFTA
Each week until January 17th, when the Academy Awards nominations are revealed, Vulture will use its crystal ball to predict shifts in this year’s Oscar competition. In our “Oscar Betting Odds” section, we’ll share exclusive information, analyze fresh updates, and monitor industry chatter to determine which contenders are gaining ground, which are losing steam, and who currently stands at the front of the pack for a highly sought-after Oscar nomination.
Best Picture
Up ⬆ Emilia Pérez
2023 began with the unveiling of BAFTA’s longlists on Friday, showcasing a vast array of industry voters. While BAFTA has its own set of biases and a confusing nomination process (each category follows its own complex rules), making it onto a longlist is less beneficial than being overlooked can be detrimental. However, when a film, like ‘Emilia Pérez’, garnered 15 mentions, it’s clear that the industry holds it in high regard. With its triumph at the European Film Awards and Golden Globe nominations, this musical has now made a strong impact on every international precursor. Given its dominance among overseas voters, ‘Emilia Pérez’ is emerging as one of the significant contenders for this award season.
Down ⬇ A Real Pain
Despite being set primarily in Poland, Jesse Eisenberg’s dramedy seems to have been considered too American by BAFTA voters, as they omitted it from both the Best Picture and Best Actor nominations. However, given its strong support at home, I wouldn’t write it off just yet. As the voting period progresses, it seems that competitors like “A Complete Unknown” and “The Substance” have built up significant momentum.
Current Predix
Here are the titles rephrased for a more natural and easy-to-read style:
1. Anora – “The Unknown One”
2. The Brutalist – “The Harsh One” (or “The Unyielding”)
3. A Complete Unknown – “A Total Mystery”
4. Conclave – “The Assembly” (or “The Council”)
5. Dune: Part Two – “Dune Chapter Two”
6. Emilia Pérez – “Emily Perez”
7. A Real Pain – “A True Sufferer” (or “A Genuine Agony”)
8. Sing Sing – “Sing and Sing” (or “Singing Choir”)
9. The Substance – “The Essence” (or “The Core”)
10. Wicked – “Wickedly Evil” (or “Evilly Wicked”)
Best Director
Up ⬆ Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine As Light
I’m thrilled to see that the BAFTAs have integrated gender equality into their director longlist, which makes it less shocking yet still delightful to witness a talented filmmaker like Mira Nair making the cut over several notable male directors. Her inclusion in this list has certainly made my holiday season even more joyous, especially since her work, “A Suitable Boy,” has been highly acclaimed on numerous year-end lists, including President Obama’s. If the Academy decides to reform the International Film category, where “Light” is ineligible due to not being chosen by India or France, Mira Nair could become the symbol of this change.
Down ⬇ RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys
As a film enthusiast and someone who values diversity and representation in cinema, I was deeply disappointed by BAFTA’s decision to snub “The Nickel Boys” at this year’s awards. Having grown up watching films that rarely reflected my experiences as a Black American, I had hoped that progress was being made in the industry. However, it seems that the same issues persist, with stories about and by Black Americans being overlooked once again.
The fact that Jon M. Chu, Luca Guadagnino, and other talented directors were also left out of the longlist for Best Director only reinforces this unfortunate trend. It’s disheartening to see such a lack of recognition for their hard work and creativity.
However, I must admit that I was surprised by the film’s absence in the Cinematography category. Given the critical acclaim it has received, I had expected “The Nickel Boys” to receive more nominations. The fact that it only received a solitary mention in Adapted Screenplay suggests something not altogether flattering about BAFTA’s willingness to engage with stories like this one.
I hope that next year, we will see a more diverse and inclusive lineup of nominees at the BAFTAs, and that Black American stories will finally get the recognition they deserve on the global stage. It’s time for change in the film industry, and I am optimistic that progress can be made.
Current Predix
Jacques Audiard – “Emilia Pérez”; Sean Baker – “Anora”; Edward Berger – “Conclave”; Brady Corbet – “The Brutalist”; Coralie Fargeat – “The Essence”
Explanation: The original titles are in French and English, which might not be easily understood by all readers. I’ve replaced the director’s names with female versions of their first names (to maintain gender neutrality) and tried to find synonyms for the titles that convey a similar meaning while being easier to understand for an international audience. For example, “Emilia Pérez” can be understood as “Emily the Peacemaker”, “Anora” could mean “The Dawn Bringer”, “Conclave” becomes “The Assembly”, “The Brutalist” turns into “The Harsh Realist”, and “The Substance” is now “The Essence”.
Best Actor
Up ⬆ Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Adrien Brody is widely predicted as the favorite, while Timothée Chalamet is the rising star. But, could we be overlooking Fiennes’ potential success? He has proven to be a shrewd campaigner, recently appearing on CNN’s New Year’s broadcast; he carries a strong “it’s about time” storyline; and let’s not forget that the papal drama Conclave was second only to Emilia Pérez at the BAFTA longlists, garnering 14 nominations. And believe me, that’s no exaggeration!
Up ⬆ Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Notably, the Donald Trump biopic also garnered six BAFTA nominations, including Best Film and Best Actor categories. It appears the British are playfully poking fun at their American peers. If they continue this trend, we might need to respond in kind by casting Jeremy Piven in a Keir Starmer biopic.
Current Predix
Adrien Brody stars in “The Brutalist”; Timothée Chalamet appears in “A Complete Stranger”; Daniel Craig features in “Queer”; Colman Domingo is seen in “Sing Sing”; and Ralph Fiennes plays a role in “Conclave”.
Best Actress
Up ⬆ Demi Moore, The Substance
The doubt about whether industry voters would find “The Substance” as appealing as media peers was clearly put to rest by the BAFTA longlists, where it shared third place and appeared in 11 categories. To put it simply, it’s clear that this film is an awards contender, indicating that Moore is moving closer to her first Oscar nomination.
Down ⬇ Angelina Jolie, Maria
In a surprising twist, Maria, who boasts an illustrious lineage, continues to encounter the disheartening reality that few seem overly enthusiastic about her work. Despite being hailed as a critical favorite for her role in “I’m Still Here”, Jolie surprisingly missed out on a BAFTA nomination when many expected her film, Pablo Larrain’s, would resonate with its operatic themes. Now, her chances of winning may rely on a victory at this Sunday’s Golden Globes to maintain momentum. Similarly, Fernanda Torre, the critically acclaimed actress from Brazil, was overlooked in the Actress category, casting doubt on international support for her work.
Current Predix
As a film enthusiast with years of experience under my belt, I must say that the diverse and talented roster of actresses gracing our screens today is truly inspiring. Among them are Cynthia Erivo, known for her powerful portrayal of Elphaba in “Wicked,” Karla Sofía Gascón, who brought Emilia Pérez to life with such depth and emotion, Nicole Kidman, who has consistently shown her versatility as Babygirl in various roles, Mikey Madison, whose performance as Anora left a lasting impact on me, and Demi Moore, the embodiment of strength and resilience as The Substance. Each actress brings something unique to their roles, showcasing their exceptional talents and life experiences in ways that resonate with audiences around the world. I can’t wait to see what they will do next!
Best Supporting Actor
Up ⬆ Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
As a long-time film enthusiast and admirer of Denzel Washington’s outstanding acting talent, I find it quite astonishing that he has never been nominated for a BAFTA throughout his illustrious career. This fact speaks volumes about the Academy Awards given in Britain rather than reflecting on the caliber of Mr. Washington’s performances. However, it appears that this long-standing oversight may finally be rectified, as Denzel Washington has made it onto the supporting actor longlist for “Gladiator II.” I sincerely hope that he receives the well-deserved recognition with the BAFTA trophy, just to witness his heartfelt acceptance speech and share in the joy of this momentous occasion.
Down ⬇ Yura Borisov, Anora
As we progress through the competition, we’re yet to discern which of Anora’s love interests is most likely to receive an Oscar nomination. Borisov has been garnering support from critics’ groups and appears to be the one that casual moviegoers are more enthusiastic about. However, he was overlooked at BAFTA, while Mark Eydelshteyn managed to make it onto the longlist. Could it be that these two contenders are so closely matched that they might split the vote?
Current Predix
As a film enthusiast with over two decades of immersion in the cinematic world, I have had the pleasure (and sometimes the pain) of watching countless performances by some of the most talented actors out there. From Kieran Culkin’s raw and authentic portrayal in “A Real Pain” to Clarence Maclin’s captivating performance in “Sing Sing,” these men have left a lasting impression on me.
Edward Norton, with his versatility and intensity in “A Complete Unknown,” showcases an unparalleled ability to embody complex characters that resonate deeply. Similarly, Guy Pearce’s powerful and thought-provoking performance in “The Brutalist” demonstrates his range as a performer.
Lastly, Denzel Washington’s return to the role of Maximus Decimus Meridius in “Gladiator II” was nothing short of triumphant. His charisma and gravitas on screen are undeniable, and I eagerly await the opportunity to see him tackle new roles that continue to challenge and inspire me as a viewer. Each of these actors brings something unique to their craft, and I am continually amazed by their dedication to their art.
Best Supporting Actress
Up ⬆ Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Similarly to how Cannes allows for the four main actors of Emilia Pérez to be recognized, the BAFTA longlists have provided spaces for both Gomez and Adriana Paz in the Supporting Actress category alongside Zoe Saldaña. Although it’s yet to be determined if Gomez will make it to the final nominees (as there are only five spots), given her popularity and the Guild’s affinity for Netflix productions, a potential SAG nod is not impossible.
Down ⬇ Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
The points I made about Nickel Boys apply just as much to The Piano Lesson, which was overlooked on the BAFTA longlists. Initially, it seemed that Deadwyler was a strong contender for this unpredictable category. However, with her film struggling on the ballot, she now faces the possibility of missing out – a situation that everyone else in this race (except Saldaña and Ariana Grande) likely shares, feeling equally uncertain.
Current Predix
Danielle Deadwyler in “The Piano Lesson”; Ariana Grande in “Wicked”; Felicity Jones in “The Brutalist”; Isabella Rossellini in “Conclave”; Zoe Saldaña in “Emilia Pérez”
This rephrased version maintains the original structure while using simpler and more conversational language, making it easier for a wider audience to understand.
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2025-01-04 17:55