Coastal Resilience: Forecasting Storm Surge with Spatial Intelligence
![The system dissects hurricane storm surge forecasting by constructing a spatio-temporal graph-nodes representing gauge stations and edges quantifying their correlations-to predict localized water level offsets [latex]\hat{o}_{i}(t)[/latex] and refine physics-based ADCIRC models, effectively learning to correct inherent biases in surge prediction.](https://arxiv.org/html/2604.20688v1/x2.png)
A new graph neural network model, StormNet, leverages connections between coastal monitoring stations to significantly reduce biases and improve the accuracy of storm surge predictions.
![The heat-exchanger model leverages prior probability densities-established for the changepoint time τ, fouling strength [latex]\beta_f[/latex], leak rate [latex]\beta_l[/latex], and fouling-event arrival rate λ-to constrain parameter estimation within the scenarios detailed in Table 1, acknowledging the inherent uncertainty in predicting system degradation.](https://arxiv.org/html/2604.20735v1/x3.png)

![The study demonstrates that cosine similarity of latent feature vectors-calculated both with a limited set of the most activated channels and the full channel set-effectively captures forecast relationships, exhibiting distinct patterns when analyzed across regions-specifically, one mirroring the analysis region of Figure 1 and another centered at [latex]50^{\circ}N, 48^{\circ}W[/latex] with a [latex]5.81^{\circ}[/latex] radius-thereby highlighting the spatial dependence of forecast correlations.](https://arxiv.org/html/2604.20467v1/x3.png)



![The simulation, parameterized with [latex]\theta = 0.3[/latex], demonstrates that a shock to a specific Brazilian asset ([latex]VIVT3.SA[/latex]) triggers a localized cascade of defaults within the Brazilian financial subnetwork, while developed-market assets remain insulated from contagion, underscoring the inherent vulnerabilities of emerging economies.](https://arxiv.org/html/2604.19796v1/figure_7.png)