Predicting Climate Tipping Points with Bayesian Early Warnings
![Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) estimates demonstrate the efficacy of binary classification in predicting the sign of [latex]H_2 - H_1[/latex] within time series data, with performance sustained across varying series lengths-1000, 500, and 200-and maintained whether classification relies on posterior probabilities or [latex]\tau_K[/latex] derived from sliding window estimates of the Hurst exponent with a window length of [latex]n/4[/latex].](https://arxiv.org/html/2602.09731v1/x12.png)
A new statistical framework uses time-varying patterns in climate data to identify subtle signals preceding critical transitions, offering improved foresight for long-range dependent systems.





