Can AI Predict the Next Big Thing?

A comparative analysis of project ranking predictions reveals that Gemini 2.5 Pro, alongside a highly proficient human expert, demonstrates strong alignment with actual rankings-as indicated by the close correspondence of predicted versus actual values-while rankings from the Prolific crowd, though exhibiting a similar linear trend, display greater variance around the line of best fit.

New research shows artificial intelligence is surprisingly adept at forecasting the success of startup ventures, challenging traditional methods of strategic foresight.