The High-Frequency Forecast: How Institutional Money Changes Prediction Markets

New research examines the impact of large-scale investment on the accuracy and fairness of prediction markets, revealing potential benefits alongside uneven distribution of gains.

![The study models spatiotemporal risk propagation within semiconductor supply chains using a five-module process-initialization of network topology [latex]G(V,E)[/latex], endogenous attenuation via recovery rate γ, exogenous filtering based on activation threshold τ, spatial aggregation of upstream disturbances, and state transition-to simulate how disruptions exceeding resilience limits can cascade through the system and potentially trigger systemic collapse.](https://arxiv.org/html/2604.11041v1/Semi-Sim.png)



