Taming Chaos: Forecasting Complex Systems with AI
A new approach combines diffusion models and adaptive sensing to improve the long-term predictability of chaotic dynamics on complex geometries.
Science
Turning Forecasts into Fortification: AI Predicts Tropical Cyclone Impacts
A new framework leverages the speed of artificial intelligence to deliver high-resolution risk assessments for critical infrastructure facing tropical cyclones.
Forecasting the Unlikely: Better Predictions for Rare Events
A new approach leverages diagnostic transport maps to refine probabilistic forecasts and improve their reliability when predicting infrequent occurrences.
Mapping Loan Risk Over Time
New research demonstrates how survival analysis can more accurately predict when loans will default, improving risk management under modern accounting standards.
Beyond Species Barriers: Predicting Antibiotic Resistance with Genomic Models
![MiniRocket and Global Pooling exhibit contrasting performance based on phylogenetic distance, with MiniRocket maintaining accuracy across increasing distances on validation sets while Global Pooling excels on unseen test sets, demonstrating that antibiotic resistance mechanisms-rather than phylogenetic relatedness alone-are the primary determinants of predictive power in assessing ampicillin resistance, a finding consistently observed across replicate analyses and further substantiated by metrics such as Matthews correlation coefficient [latex] MCC [/latex].](https://arxiv.org/html/2603.11141v1/figures/ampicillin_v1-1_phylogenetic_distance.png)
New research reveals that the key to accurately forecasting antibiotic resistance across different bacteria lies in how genomic information is analyzed, matching the method to the underlying genetic mechanisms.
Untangling City Life: How Shared Causes Reveal Urban Events
A new framework leverages the underlying connections between different incidents to more accurately reconstruct what’s happening in a city based on resident reports.
The Coordination Cost of Distributed Control
As complex engineering systems grow, distributing control via multi-agent reinforcement learning offers scalability, but new research reveals this can come at the expense of optimal performance.
Predicting Chemotherapy Success with the Power of Clinical Notes
New research demonstrates how analyzing doctor’s notes with advanced AI can forecast patient response to chemotherapy, potentially personalizing cancer treatment.
Unfolding the Future: A New Approach to Long-Term Traffic Prediction
Researchers have developed VisiFold, a novel framework that leverages graph-based techniques to dramatically improve the accuracy and efficiency of forecasting traffic patterns over extended periods.
Reading Minds, Shaping Markets
![The equilibrium mean control [latex]\bar{D}^{1}(t)[/latex] is demonstrably affected by signal precision [latex]p[/latex], exhibiting a heightened incentive for belief manipulation when precision is low due to sluggish opponent posteriors, and converging towards a perfect-information benchmark as [latex]p[/latex] approaches infinity.](https://arxiv.org/html/2603.12140v1/x3.png)
New research reveals how strategic players can both predict and influence the expectations of others, with significant implications for economic efficiency.