BTC’s ‘Uptober’ Dreams Crashing: Glassnode’s ‘Exhaustion’ Warning 😅

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Bitcoin (BTC) is tanking so hard right now, even the squirrels in my neighborhood know something’s wrong. On-chain firm Glassnode just dropped a report saying the market’s “exhausted,” which is just Wall Street code for “we told you so.” Meanwhile, everyone’s clinging to this “Uptober” myth like it’s the last slice of pizza at a party. Spoiler: it’s probably expired.

But hey, some analysts are still betting on “Uptober” as if it’s a magic spell. Seasonal tailwinds? Please. October’s just the month retail investors panic-sell and crypto bros start wearing bear-market sweaters. Let’s see how bullish this “bullish” phase is when your portfolio looks like a deflated balloon.

Why Bitcoin’s Price May Drop Further

Glassnode claims BTC is “exhausted” after the Fed’s rate cut sent prices to $117k. Classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” – because of course, the second the Fed says “hello,” everyone says “goodbye.”

“Bitcoin has transitioned into a corrective phase,” Glassnode wrote. Translation: we’re all broke now. Congrats.

Long-term holders (LTHs) are cashing in like it’s Black Friday at the crypto mall, moving 3.4 million BTC in gains. That’s more than any cycle before it. Glassnode adds this usually happens right before the market tops… which is just a polite way of saying “we’re about to hit rock bottom.”

“This cycle has seen three distinct multi-month surges,” they said. Three? That’s more than my attention span for a single Netflix show. And guess what? Every time profit-taking hits 90%, the market peaks. Now we’re post-peak, so enjoy the “cooling phase.” Code for: your gains are now a memory.

Meanwhile, ETF netflows collapsed from 2,600 BTC/day to zero faster than my dating app streak after a bad breakup. LTH selling? It’s a fire sale, baby.

“ETF inflows balanced LTH selling, but with little margin for error,” Glassnode said. Margin for error? What’s that? Oh right, it’s the thing we lost last week when prices tanked.

Spot markets are a circus of chaos. Futures markets? Total deleveraging. Open interest dropped like a bad habit. Options markets? Traders are buying puts like they’re discount candy. And Glassnode’s latest obsession: holding above $111,800. Which BTC just slipped below. Congrats, we’re now in “deeper cooling” territory. Which is just a fancy way of saying: your HODL strategy is dead.

“Short-term holder cost basis at $111k is the key level to hold,” they stressed. Key level? More like a death sentence for your savings.

Analyst Quinten Francois summed it up best: “We’re in a no-trade zone.” Translation: don’t touch crypto until next year. Or maybe the year after that.

“BTC fell under support and the uptrend,” he said. Yup, because nothing says “bull market” like falling through every line on a chart like it’s a stepstool.

Can Uptober Save Bitcoin? Historical Data Suggests Strong Gains

Seasonal factors say October is “Uptober,” with BTC averaging 21.89% returns. Historically, BTC has only closed October in the red four times since 2009. That’s comforting… until you realize three of those years were during global pandemics or recessions. Coincidence? I think not.

“If you invested in BTC on October 1st since 2009, you’d be profitable 12 times,” Darkfost said. Oh, great! Let me pack my bags for 2025 and start praying to the crypto gods.

And don’t get me started on that “Uptober” tweet: “Position yourself before Q4.” Because nothing says “smart investing” like jumping on a hype train that’s already derailed.

October is called UPTOBER for a reason.

This is highly bullish in post-halving years.

Position yourself before Q4.

– Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) September 24, 2025

As BTC trades below key levels, the coming weeks will decide if “Uptober” is a miracle or just another crypto fairy tale. Spoiler: it’s the latter. But hey, at least we’ll have alts to cry over. 💸

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2025-09-26 13:09