BTC’s Secret Surge: How Spot Buyers Are Turning the Tables on Short-Term Sellers at $70K

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<a href="https://minority-mindset.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a> Spot Buying Returns While Short-Term Holders Sell Every Rally Above $70K

Key Takeaways:

  • Short-term holders are dumping BTC at every rally above $70K, stalling momentum
  • Buyer volume on Binance and Coinbase has flipped positive for the first time since February
  • A contested “23-bar cycle” theory suggests Bitcoin may be near a macro bottom
  • Institutional accumulation is accelerating – Strategy and Metaplanet are buying aggressively

What the Federal Reserve says about future interest rate increases will be the most important part of this week’s meeting. Everyone expects rates to stay the same, so the focus will be on the Fed’s overall message, not on any actual changes. Generally, things are still difficult for investments. With the Fed likely to keep interest rates high for a while, it’s not a good time for risky investments, and even a suggestion that rates might go *up* could cause concern in the market.

Unlike many other assets, Bitcoin is remaining surprisingly stable. This resilience, even in a difficult market, suggests that the strong selling pressure seen in February is starting to ease up. It doesn’t necessarily mean prices will go up, but it indicates sellers are losing control.

The Flow Data Is Turning

CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler notes a recent shift in Bitcoin trading on major exchanges. Both Binance and Coinbase are now seeing more Bitcoin bought than sold, a change from earlier this year. Just a month and a half ago, these exchanges showed a net negative volume, with Binance at -$145 million and Coinbase at -$88 million. Now, those numbers have reversed, reaching approximately +$21 million and +$14 million respectively.

This is a big shift in market behavior. Back in February, both individual and institutional investors were mostly selling. A combination of fear, unclear economic policies, and a nearly 30% drop in price from its peak led to widespread selling. The data from that time clearly shows consistent, strong selling pressure with very little buying to counteract it.

The market dynamic has shifted. We’re seeing renewed interest from buyers, although trading volume is still relatively low compared to the gains seen in October and November. This change in who’s participating – not just the amount of trading – is a key sign that the market might be starting to turn around, and it’s happening gradually.

If this pattern continues, it might be enough to drive Bitcoin beyond its current price levels. However, trading volume is still low across the crypto market, so even small changes could lead to big price swings. We need to see further evidence to confirm this trend.

The $70K Ceiling Isn’t Moving Yet

Despite increasing positive data, the price of Bitcoin continues to face strong resistance around $70,000, with sellers consistently stepping in to prevent it from rising further.

When the price of Bitcoin briefly rose above $74,000 this week, short-term Bitcoin holders quickly sold for a profit. These profits reached $18.4 million per hour, according to a 12-hour average.

We’ve seen this happen repeatedly since February: whenever Bitcoin gets close to or goes above $70,000, investors who hold it for a short time tend to sell, which slows down any potential for a lasting price increase.

This group of investors purchased their holdings fairly recently, probably during the price increase in late 2025. Now, they’re either making a small profit or just breaking even. Each time the price recovers to around what they originally paid, they see it as a chance to sell. This creates a situation where the market repeatedly hits the same price limit, because the selling pressure comes from the same investors. Until these investors either sell all their holdings or are willing to hold on for further gains, this price limit will likely remain in place.

A Cycle Theory That’s Getting Attention

Beyond the usual market data, a technical analysis gaining traction this week comes from analyst Merlijn The Trader. He’s identified a consistent pattern in past Bitcoin cycles: the drop from a peak to the lowest point of a bear market has always lasted exactly 23 months. He believes the recent all-time high was 23 months ago, suggesting a potential bottom may be near.

THE MOST PRECISE BITCOIN PATTERN JUST COMPLETED.

Every cycle: exactly 23 monthly bars from ATH to bottom. Not 22. Not 24. 23.

The 2025 ATH was 23 bars ago.

Above $77K: bottom confirmed. Next leg up. Below $65K: one more bar before the floor.

Bitcoin has an internal clock.…

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader)

He believes the market’s direction will soon become clear. If the price stays above $77,000 at the end of the month, it likely means the worst is over and prices will start to rise again. However, if the price falls below $65,000, it suggests there might be one more drop before it reaches a low point.

This trading strategy is straightforward and has shown some consistency in the past, which is hard to ignore. However, simple strategies often fail at critical times. As more traders use a particular idea, it can become predictable, altered, or simply stop working. Despite this, it currently reflects the conflicting feelings of traders – it appears to be establishing a solid foundation, but sellers continue to exert pressure.

Institutions Aren’t Waiting for Confirmation

Although shoppers are still hesitant and cryptocurrency transaction data is only starting to improve, large institutional investors seem to have already reached a conclusion.

Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has significantly increased its Bitcoin holdings. After a quieter period, the company made a large purchase of 22,337 BTC for about $1.57 billion, averaging $70,194 per Bitcoin. Interestingly, this buying spree happened while short-term Bitcoin holders were selling. Strategy now owns 761,068 BTC – the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury globally – and doesn’t seem to be stopping its accumulation.

The trend of institutional investment in Bitcoin is also apparent in Asia. Metaplanet, a Japanese company that has been consistently increasing its Bitcoin holdings, recently secured $255 million from institutional investors by issuing new shares. This deal also includes options that could generate an additional $276 million, potentially bringing the total raised to $531 million. Currently, the company holds 35,102 BTC, valued at approximately $2.47 billion. The fact that these investors chose to buy shares rather than simply loan money suggests strong, independent demand for Bitcoin exposure, beyond Metaplanet’s own belief in the cryptocurrency.

Overall, the actions of major institutions don’t match the cautious behavior seen in short-term trading. These large investors aren’t waiting for a price of $77,000 to be certain of anything; they seem to be actively buying within the current price range.

Where This Leaves Things

The market’s direction over the next few weeks is uncertain. While buying activity is increasing, it hasn’t been definitively proven. Larger investors are steadily adding to their positions, but short-term traders are still quick to sell when prices rise. Overall economic conditions are still challenging, and a key market cycle indicator is at a critical juncture.

Despite falling from its peak, Bitcoin has held its value surprisingly well and hasn’t hit new lows. This strength, along with increasing interest from buyers – especially large institutions – is encouraging for those who believe the price will go up. If Bitcoin can break through and stay above $70,000, it’s likely to set a positive trend for the next few months.

This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Always do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor before investing.

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2026-03-18 09:52