The illustrious creator of the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model, a mathematical masterpiece that was supposed to predict the unpredictable, has begun to question his own magnum opus 🤔. It appears that the four-year market cycles, a notion that has been etched into the minds of crypto enthusiasts, might just be a “BIG misunderstanding” 🙅♂️, according to PlanB, the mastermind behind the model.
The bears, those pesky creatures that always seem to be lurking in the shadows, think that $,000 was the top, and that BTC will plummet below $,000, with being a bear market – all because of the four-year cycle 🐻. But PlanB is not convinced, and who can blame him? After all, three cycles are not enough to establish a reliable pattern 📊. It’s like trying to predict the trajectory of a butterfly 🦋 based on a few fluttering movements.
“What I do know is: there has not been a fundamental Bitcoin phase transition yet in this cycle,” he said, leaving us all wondering what exactly that means 🤷♂️.
“Either the big jump has yet to come, or we have transitioned into a more stable price regime, dominated by institutions, fund mandates, and rebalancing … Both scenarios are very bullish for Bitcoin,” he added, trying to sound as optimistic as possible 🌞.
But wait, there’s more! PlanB took to Twitter to express his skepticism about the four-year cycle 📱.
Bears think $k was the top, and btc will fall below $k, and will be a bear market mainly because … the year cycle!?
IMO that is a BIG misunderstanding.
– PlanB (@trillionUSD) October ,
And he’s not the only one who’s skeptical. Willy Woo, another analyst with a keen eye for detail, observed that the liquidity driving the cycle top of the last bull market came from paper derivative markets, a short-term instrument 📝. But this cycle? It’s shaping up differently, with longer-term spot liquidity holding up for now 📈.
“This cycle is shaping up differently. Paper has already started dropping away, while longer term spot liquidity is holding up for now,”
Bitcoin, the mercurial beast that it is, has tanked more than % over the past few hours, crashing back to $, during the Tuesday morning Asian trading session 📊. What remains clear is that crypto markets are still very jittery and need some solid fundamentals to get the boost that analysts are looking for 💪.
So, buckle up, folks! 🚀 It’s going to be a wild ride 🚗.
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2025-10-21 11:22