Bitcoin’s Snooze Fest: DXY’s Dive and Trump’s Dollar Drama

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Well, I say, old bean, the market’s in a bit of a pickle, what? The greenback, that stalwart chap, seems to be having a spot of bother, rather like a fellow who’s overindulged at the club and can’t quite keep his footing. Zooming out, as the chaps say, one spots that investor confidence is as shaky as a debutante’s resolve at her first ball. Rising debt, tariff tomfoolery-it’s all rather like a game of cricket where the rules keep changing mid-match.

Now, the numbers don’t lie, though they occasionally fib through their teeth. The DXY, poor blighter, took a 9.4% tumble in 2025, its worst show since it last tripped over its own shoelaces eight years ago. And 2026? Well, it’s off to a ripping start, down 2.23% already. One can almost hear it muttering, “Carry on, mustn’t grumble.”

Historically, this sort of carry-on has been music to Bitcoin’s ears. Back in 2017, when the DXY dipped below 96, Bitcoin rallied like a chap who’s just spotted the bar opening. Eightfold, no less! And in 2020, with liquidity injections flowing like champagne at a society wedding, Bitcoin climbed sevenfold. One might say it’s got a knack for turning up trumps when the dollar’s down in the dumps.

So, the question on everyone’s lips-or at least on the lips of those who haven’t dozed off mid-sentence-is whether history’s set to repeat itself. From Donald Trump’s perspective, a weaker dollar is as constructive as a butler who knows exactly when to pour the next drink. He’s been banging on about how it boosts exports, keeps rates low, and generally gives the GDP a jolly good kick along. A potential tailwind, he calls it, though one suspects he’d call a hurricane a “brisk breeze” if it suited him.

Meanwhile, his relentless nagging of Fed Chair Powell for rate cuts is like a dog with a bone-or perhaps a dog with a rather large, expensive bone. It’s only reinforcing the dollar’s weakness, suggesting that this 2.23% dip might just be the overture to a full-blown symphony of decline. Investors, one imagines, are eyeing their portfolios with the same trepidation as a fellow about to face a particularly fierce aunt at tea.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s historical rallies look as solid as a well-built cricket pavilion. Yet, here’s the rub: Bitcoin’s been chopping about below $90k like a chef who’s lost his recipe. The key question, of course, is whether investors will follow through on this setup, or if they’ll simply wander off in search of a stiffer drink.

Key Bitcoin Divergences

The Fed, bless their cotton socks, has been doing its level best to assert its “independence,” rather like a teenager insisting they’re perfectly capable of managing their own allowance. At the FOMC meeting, Chair Jerome Powell stood firm, resisting Trump’s pressure and keeping rates steady. Bitcoin, in response, took a modest 1.3% intraday dip, but it’s holding steady around $85k, like a chap who’s had one too many but is determined to see the evening through.

However, this isn’t the only divergence putting the market at a crossroads. Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs, to those in the know) have offloaded 143,000 BTC over the past month, the fastest pace in four months. It’s as if they’ve decided the DXY thesis is all poppycock and are heading for the hills-or at least for something they consider a safer bet.

According to AMBCrypto, this suggests that LTHs aren’t buying into the whole “weak dollar equals Bitcoin rally” narrative. Even with Trump championing a softer dollar, analysts remain as wary as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs. The U.S., being the world’s top importer, faces inflation risk, a headwind that could undermine Trump’s rate-cut narrative faster than a poorly tied cravat.

Final Thoughts

  • DXY’s decline, coupled with Trump’s enthusiasm for a softer dollar, sets the stage for Bitcoin-though whether it’s a tragedy or a farce remains to be seen.
  • LTHs are offloading like there’s no tomorrow, and rising inflation risk may well scupper the rate-cut narrative, leaving investor confidence as shaky as a three-legged stool. Capital, one suspects, will be heading for safer assets faster than you can say “tally-ho.”

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2026-01-29 14:15