The crypto cosmos has taken a rather dismal turn, with Matrixport’s Greed & Fear index plummeting-yes, plummeting!-to levels so low they might as well be buried six feet under, signaling a market that could be on the brink of yet another melodramatic twist.
Yet, in an unexpected plot twist reminiscent of a bad soap opera, Matrixport believes Bitcoin might still be set for a rocky road ahead.
Sentiment Signals Possible Inflection Point for Bitcoin
In a recent market update that reads like a Shakespearean tragedy, Matrixport revealed that the overall sentiment has nosedived into the abyss, reflecting a widespread pessimism that would make even Eeyore feel optimistic.
The firm elaborated on its proprietary Bitcoin fear and greed gauge, claiming that “durable bottoms” typically materialize when the 21-day moving average takes a dip below zero and then graciously decides to rise again. A chart hints at this setup, but let’s not hold our breath just yet.
“This transition signals that selling pressure is becoming exhausted and that market conditions are beginning to stabilize,” the post melodramatically declared.
The report further noted, with all the gravitas of a fortune teller at a county fair, that given the cyclical relationship between sentiment and Bitcoin price action, this latest extreme reading may hint at another potential turning point. Or maybe just another round of crypto bingo.
Simultaneously, Matrixport issued a warning akin to a cautious parent telling a child not to run with scissors: prices might continue their downward dance in the near term.
“While caution remains warranted, the current environment is increasingly forcing us to sharpen our focus and prepare for the conditions that typically precede a meaningful rebound,” the firm mused, wrapped in existential dread.
On-Chain Indicators Signal Bear Market Stress
Meanwhile, technical indicators paint a picture of a beleaguered Bitcoin market akin to a soggy sponge. An analyst by the name of Woominkyu observed that the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) has slumped back into the 0.92-0.94 range-ah yes, the beloved zone that once heralded major bear-market stress periods.
“In 2019 and 2023, similar readings occurred during deep corrective phases where coins were being spent at a loss. Each time, this zone represented capitulation pressure and structural reset,” the post lamented.
Historically, multiple cycle lows have frolicked around the 0.92 to 0.93 region like wayward sheep. Woominkyu astutely noted that the current structure resembles transitions into bear market phases, rather than a mere routine mid-cycle hiccup.
If this metric fails to claw its way back above 1.0 soon, it could raise the probability that Bitcoin is entering a broader bearish phase, not merely indulging in a whimsical correction.
True market bottoms, the analyst contended, tend to form only after a deeper compression in aSOPR, peak loss realization, and a complete exhaustion of selling pressure. While the market appears to be tiptoeing into a stress zone, full capitulation seems to be playing hard to get.
“aSOPR is signaling structural deterioration. This looks less like a dip and more like a regime shift. The real bottom may still require deeper compression before a durable reversal forms,” the analyst added, with a sigh.
This perspective aligns with broader bearish projections suggesting Bitcoin may just decide to revisit levels below $40,000 before a sturdy bottom can emerge, like a bad sequel no one asked for.
BeInCrypto Markets data shows Bitcoin is currently trading around $68,000. A drop below $40,000 would imply a decline of more than 40% from current levels, underscoring the scale of downside risk some analysts believe lurks menacingly around the corner like a cat ready to pounce.
For now, sentiment indicators tease a potential turning point, but on-chain data suggests that structural weakness may still need to finish its dramatic monologue before a recovery can begin.
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2026-02-17 17:31