Bitcoin’s Liquidity Mirage: Hayes Bets on 2026 Boom

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BitMEX’s co-founder Arthur Hayes, with the sly wink of a conjurer who has misplaced his wand, suggests that Bitcoin may sash to fresh records if the U.S. monetary weather rises to a more lenient breeze next year. He points to a bouquet of possible nudges for a torrent of dollar liquidity in 2026, all while tying the latest market theater to where capital drifted in 2025-as if liquidity itself were a restless poet and we merely its stagehands. 😏💸

Hayes Links Bitcoin To Dollar Liquidity

According to Hayes, the hinge of Bitcoin is the amount of money merrily sloshing through the system’s arteries. He mentions the Fed’s balance sheet fattening through what he calls more aggressive money creation, mortgage rates leaning backward as lenders loosen, and commercial banks stepping up loans to industries cradled by government strategy-an orchestra conducted in a hall of inflated promises.

Bitcoin fell about 15% in 2025 while gold vaulted 44%. Technology stocks led the S&P 500 with a total return of 25%, against the index’s overall 18% return. Hayes argued that those figures narrate last year as a story about where liquidity landed, not a confession that crypto’s core thesis was peeling away like wallpaper.

Government Support Sends Tech Higher

Hayes also glossed on how governments have funneled capital into certain tech projects. He suggested that both China and the U.S. used executive actions and public funds to push money into artificial intelligence, saying this has helped tech firms attract heavy flows regardless of immediate return on equity. The implied wink here is that value is often a rumor dressed in future tense.

He named US President Donald Trump when pointing to policy moves that favor AI investment. That dynamic, he said, helped explain why the Nasdaq still strutted proudly even as Bitcoin slumped-while we all pretended not to notice the irony with a nonchalant shrug. 😂

Policy And Military Spending Matter

He added a sharper claim about military spending. Hayes said the U.S. will keep employing its military might and that such efforts require large-scale production financed through the banking system-an operatic chorus of invoices and epaulettes. 🎭

That, in his view, can augment broader liquidity if the banking sector begins funding big government-backed projects. Reports have suggested that Hayes believes these forces could push dollar liquidity higher in 2026, creating fertile ground for risk assets-including Bitcoin-like rain on a thirsty cactus.

Inflation Data Pushed Crypto Higher This Week

Markets reacted when the latest U.S. inflation figures arrived cooler than expected. Bitcoin inched toward $97,000 and rose more than 5% in 24 hours. Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano each posted gains near 8% in the same span, because who doesn’t love a moonlit rally? The bond yields fell and the dollar weakened, leaving cash craving a new home. That familiar pattern-softer inflation easing borrowing costs and inviting risk-poked its head as if to say, “Hello there, speculative theater.”

Bond yields sank and the dollar softened, making cash seek a fresh domicile. A familiar refrain: easing inflation often paves the way for appetite and audacity.

A Bull Case With Conditions

Based on Hayes’ logic, Bitcoin’s upside depends on ongoing fiat debasement. He casts Bitcoin as a monetary technology whose value ascends when fiat weakens. The notion is elegant enough, yet it wears conditional boots. If central banks choose to stay tight, or if inflation flares and forces a policy pivot, Hayes’ scenario may not materialize. For the moment, his forecast remains a liquidity romance-a drama that will be tested by policy choices in 2026, with us as the obliging audience. 🎭😉

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2026-01-16 10:14