Bitcoin’s Leverage Mirage: Can It Leap to $100K?

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Leverage, that sly mule, once again paces Bitcoin forward, not with the sunrise of demand but with the clatter of forced bets. The breakout came howling, a short squeeze that pulled traders from their hedges, as if a town square had suddenly filled with gusts of wind and new opinions. 😏

Glassnode tells a plain truth wrapped in market fog: this was the largest short-liquidation event among the top 500 coins since October 10, 2025. A ledger of rusted horses and loud promises, stamped in red ink on the wall of a sleepy market. 🐎

On the chart, the spikes of liquidation march in lockstep with Bitcoin’s ascent to local peaks, as if the town clock itself were whooping for a rise. The numbers dance, and the crowd pretends not to hear the drums. 📈

Traders vanished billions of dollars in short exposure in a blink, and then the buys, pressed by hurried hands, chased the price higher, giving the upside one more shove before it settled into its chair for a spell. The street talks, and you can hear the murmur of profit in the air like a cicada over a summer field. 💸

This tune has been playing since late 2025, but the tempo sharpened as Bitcoin refused to waver, standing tall where the fog should have rolled in.

If these liquidations keep marching, Bitcoin might wander toward the $100,000-$105,000 rung, carried on momentum like a stubborn wagon. 🚜

Yet calm could return if funding cools and open interest resets; the price may simply linger, pavilioned by old memories. Squeezes of the past suggest that what holds the rhythm together is spot demand taking the baton from leverage.

OG supply pullback signals…

Old-guard Bitcoin holders aren’t showing the same hand as in the late innings of this cycle. The pace of distribution has softened, like a farmer slowing his plow as a dry wind blows through the corn. 🌾

STXO data from coins resting for more than five years shows a clear slowdown in the long-haul spenders’ rhythm.

CryptoQuant records say OGs were bustling into 2024, using institutional demand and government buying as a handy exit light. But that behavior has drifted ashore. Earlier in the cycle, OG spending crested near 3,800 BTC, then eased to 3,200 BTC, and finally to 2,200 BTC.

In the short run, lighter selling from the OG crowd eases overhead supply and lends a kind of quiet stability to the market. In the long run, it speaks of conviction-the kind that sits in the bones and waits for a harvest. Historically, OG restraint has walked with accumulation, not the late-cycle scatter of the crowd.

Whales hedge as retail commits: Who breaks first?

The chart exposes a stubborn divergence. Whales loosen their long holds, then drift into shorts, a deliberate pivot like an old shepherd changing his gate. Meanwhile, price stays buoyant even as momentum sighs and leverage quietly rebuilds its muscle.

All told, these threads pull the risk toward a needle’s eye: the downside. Whales move first because they glimpse crowded positions and late-cycle folly before the dust settles.

Moreover, OG Bitcoin holders have stopped scattering coins as before. That leaves the organic selling pressure a little friendless, with leverage standing as the stage manager.

Retail traders tend to walk in the opposite direction, chasing the bright lights of momentum, reacting to price rather than the floor beneath it. When volatility grows, they often add long bets as if seasoning a stew with bravado. 🥘

Alphractal’s on-chain whispers tell of whales closing longs and flipping to shorts as Bitcoin neared $69,000, while the everyday trader piled into leveraged longs. Then, as if the wind shifted, Bitcoin slid almost 20%, from $69,000 to $56,000 before finding its breath again.

This read says we might be on the edge of a shakeout or a cooling stretch. If leverage unravels, the price could pull back before any lasting march upward can take root.

All told, Bitcoin’s shape is plain: leverage, not spot demand, keeps the momentum warm. Short liquidations jolted the price, OG selling slowed, and whales turned defensive. That tightens the supply and leaves a fragile fortress standing.

Upside remains delicate. Sustainable gains will require spot demand to step in and replace leverage. Until then, volatility rides shotgun, and any broader move carries the risk of a corrective breath. 💨

Final Thoughts

  • Leverage now drives Bitcoin’s momentum, with short liquidations lifting price while spot demand remains secondary, increasing the risk of volatility-driven pullbacks. 😅
  • Smart money is turning cautious, as whales hedge and OG holders slow selling, signaling tighter supply but a fragile rally unless spot buyers step in. 🤨💡

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2026-01-16 00:54