Bitcoin’s Golden Decade Ends? 5-Year Curse Strikes Again!

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According to Mike McGlone, Bloomberg’s senior strategist, Bitcoin’s golden decade may be fading into metallic mediocrity 🐍. Represented by the XBT/XAU chart, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio just dropped to 20.18 – almost exactly where it was five years ago. It’s like a broken clock, but even worse because it’s a cryptocurrency 🪙.

After reaching 40 in late 2024, the benchmark has been cut in half, reviving fears of a complete return to the 10 zone, which was last seen during crypto’s darkest consolidation phase. Remember when Bitcoin was just a joke? Well, it’s back to that level, but now with more drama 📉.

McGlone has been sounding this alarm for months. His core thesis is that Bitcoin had massive overperformance after 2020 due to liquidity-driven hype, and that excess is now bleeding out. It’s like a cryptocurrency version of a hangover, but with more graphs and fewer regrets 💸.

In this case, the “5-Year Curse” is a warning to macro allocators who are still clinging to the digital gold narrative. For McGlone, the next most likely thing to happen is a return to 10 – or another 50% crash for Bitcoin vs. gold. It’s like a crypto version of a “I told you so,” but with more math 🧠.

This is not an abstract theory in dollar terms either. He notes that Bitcoin’s yearly chart shows a failure to break $100,000 in 2025, a rollover below the 200-day moving average, and a weak bounce into early 2026. These factors align with a potential breakdown. It’s like a crypto version of a slow-motion car crash, but with more spreadsheets 📊.

He views this as a setup for a full mean reversion, with $50,000 as the baseline retrace and $10,000 as a possible overshoot, particularly if risk assets deflate post-inflation. It’s like a crypto apocalypse, but with more financial jargon 🧨.

Key trigger? Equities

Over the past decade, Bitcoin’s alpha has correlated with a rising S&P 500 and suppressed volatility. However, the volatility index has remained low since late 2022, and McGlone warns that an increase in equity risk could cause a major decline in the beta of speculative cryptocurrencies. It’s like a party where the host says, “Don’t worry, everything’s under control,” but the music is playing in a different key 🎵.

The real takeaway is that Bitcoin’s chart against gold is no longer bullish, but symmetrical. In this context, symmetry may mean another 50% drop before the bleeding stops. So, if you’re holding Bitcoin, maybe consider a “golden” exit strategy… or just a regular one 🚨.

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2026-01-19 13:17