Bitcoin’s Bearish Ballet: Is the Crypto Waltz Over?

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Oh, the drama! The on-chain data is throwing a tantrum, and the Bitcoin Supply in Loss indicator is doing the cha-cha toward bearish town. Could this be the crypto equivalent of a soap opera plot twist? Stay tuned, folks!

The 365-Day SMA Tango: A Rising Star in the Bearish Broadway

As our intrepid analyst from CryptoQuant Quicktake post points out, the Bitcoin Supply in Loss is back on the dance floor, twirling its way upward. This metric, with a name as straightforward as a sledgehammer, measures the percentage of BTC holders currently sobbing into their keyboards over unrealized losses.

Here’s how it works: the metric scans each Bitcoin’s transaction history like a nosy neighbor, comparing the last purchase price to the current spot price. If the result is a financial frown, that coin is officially “underwater”-a term that sounds more like a swimming accident than a financial predicament.

The Supply in Loss then adds up all these drowning coins and calculates what fraction of the total supply they represent. Its counterpart, the Supply in Profit, is just the Supply in Loss subtracted from 100%. It’s like a zero-sum game, but with more tears and fewer confetti.

Behold, a chart that illustrates the 365-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Bitcoin Supply in Loss, a saga as dramatic as a Mel Brooks comedy:

In October, the 365-day SMA Bitcoin Supply in Loss took a nosedive, hitting rock bottom just as Bitcoin soared to its all-time high of $126,000. It was like a financial rollercoaster-thrilling for some, nauseating for others. But since then, the indicator has been climbing faster than a cat up a curtain, thanks to the bearish momentum that’s been slapping BTC around like a misbehaving piñata.

Sure, the indicator hasn’t reached capitulation levels yet, but its change in direction is as unmistakable as a clown at a funeral. “Historically, this shift has marked the early phase of bear markets,” our quant explains, “when losses spread like a rumor at a high school.” From the chart, it’s clear that past bearish transitions happened when the indicator shot up, with its peak coinciding with the cycle bottom. It’s like a financial Groundhog Day, but with fewer cute rodents.

Is this recent reversal the start of another bear market, or just a temporary stumble? Earlier in the cycle, a similar upward turn fizzled out, giving way to renewed bullish momentum instead of a prolonged bear phase. Will history repeat itself, or is Bitcoin destined for a dramatic encore of despair? Only time will tell, folks-grab your popcorn and stay tuned!

BTC Price: The Never-Ending Saga

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $89,000, up over 1% in the last 24 hours. Will it moon, or will it doom? Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen-the crypto circus is in town!

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2026-01-29 01:54