Bitcoin’s $42B Exodus: A Tale of Greed, Gold, & Glorious Gains! 💸🐻

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Key Takeaways 

What’s next for Bitcoin’s price?

Per an analyst, an extended price range was likely to occur until OGs and LTH finish offloading.  

How’s the market positioned in the near-term? 

Options flows show mild bullish bias through November, but traders remain cautious heading into year-end.

Ah, dear reader, what a tedious spectacle this Bitcoin hath become! Once a daring venture for the bold, it now behaves with the predictability of a well-heeled matron at a ball-dancing to the tune of U.S. equities and liquidity, as if such a thing were ever remotely thrilling. 🤷‍♀️

Yet, in its infinite caprice, the crypto asset hath shown a most vexing dislocation from the Nasdaq Composite and even gold. A state of affairs so perplexing, one might require a cup of tea and a brisk walk to comprehend. 🌿

In October, for example, gold had its moment; now Nasdaq has followed suit, but BTC continued to underperform, noted CryptoQuant’s Head of Research, Julio Moreno.  

While the Nasdaq and gold printed new highs last month, BTC was in a pullback, shedding over $16,000 from $126,000 to $110,000. A performance so lackluster, one might mistake it for the plot of a Regency romance. 📜

The results? BTC saw its first red “Uptober” since 2028. The sentiment hath soured, unnerving a section of CT (Crypto Twitter), which feared that we could be entering the cyclical “bear phase.” A most dramatic turn, to be sure-though perhaps less harrowing than a sudden downpour at a garden party. 🌧️

‘IPO moment’ or consolidation phase?

However, others have made a contrarian bet- A consolidation instead of a “bear phase” into 2026. 

According to Jordi Visser, Analyst at 22V Research, BTC may be in its “IPO moment”, citing the OG distribution and drawing parallels to traditional initial public offerings (IPOs). 

Visser noted, 

“When a company goes public and early investors begin to sell their positions, the stock often consolidates, even during broader market rallies.”

The BTC OGs, who’ve held the asset for several years and other LTHs (long-term holders), have been dumping into the rally. A most unseemly display of greed, one might say. 💸

In fact, LTHs have been offloading throughout H2, dumping 383K BTC (about $42B) in October alone, outpacing ETF demand. A veritable feast for those with the stomach to partake. 🍽️

However, Visser said that the distribution doesn’t mean BTC is dying. In contrast, it’s a sign of maturity as treasuries and ETFs step in to offer exit liquidity for early investors, similar to IPOs. 

As a result, BTC could enter a consolidation phase, similar to those experienced by Facebook and Google after their IPOs. He added, 

“IPO distribution periods typically last 6-18 months. We’re probably several months into this process, but likely not done.”

Following the post-IPO consolidation, tech stocks rallied, Visser highlighted. His outlook was echoed by Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, calling the projection an “accurate state of the BTC market.” A most harmonious duet of doom and gloom, if you ask me. 🎵

Options flows tilt bullish into November

That said, Options flows underscored bullish expectations into the end of November, but with a more cautious positioning towards year-end.

Notably, there were heavier call volumes (green bars) around $112K-$120K, suggesting bullish inclinations in the near term (end-November). 

However, in December, there was a slight uptick in put activity around $105,000, suggesting hedging or a cautious tone at year-end. A prudent move, perhaps, for those who fear the wrath of Mr. Market. ⚖️

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2025-11-02 15:10