Bitcoin LTH Loss at 14%: HODLers Bleed, But The Moon Is Late

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The Bitcoin long-term holders-a hardy lot who have probably never met a decision they didn’t procrastinate-have watched their losses puff up like a dragon with indigestion, yet the annals of history insist bear markets have sunk to even more dramatic depths.

Bitcoin LTH Losses Currently Equivalent To 14% Of The Market Cap

As revealed by the sober wizards at on-chain analytics firm Glassnode in a post on X, the Unrealized Loss among the Bitcoin long-term holders has been elevated again. The “long-term holders” here refer to BTC investors who have been clinging to their tokens for more than 155 days-a crowd that people pat on the head and call the resolute “HODLers” of the market.

Since the last quarter of 2025, BTC has sagged along with the wider crypto realm, and these long-term holders have naturally felt the squeeze. An indicator handy for judging the effect of a drawdown on investors is the “Unrealized Loss,” which measures, as the name implies, the total amount of loss BTC investors are currently carrying.

The metric ambles through the transaction history of every token in circulation to determine whether its last transfer price was greater than the current spot price. Coins that meet this condition are treated as at a loss equal to the difference between the two prices. The Unrealized Loss tallies up this value for all such coins.

In this context, a modified form of the indicator called the Relative Unrealized Loss is of interest. This metric expresses the holder loss as a percentage of the market cap.

Now behold the chart Glassnode shared showing the trend in the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Loss for the LTHs:

As the graph makes abundantly clear, the 30-day SMA of the Bitcoin LTH Relative Unrealized Loss has crept upward over the last few months, a blend of bearish price action and the aging of coins bought at the market top into the LTH mix.

Today, the indicator’s value sits at 14%, meaning that the pain borne by the diamond hands amounts to 14% of Bitcoin’s total valuation. This is the highest degree of discomfort the LTHs have faced since 2023.

Yet the chart also shows that the last two bear markets pushed it even higher, with notable peaks around 70% at their bottoms.

Whether the current Bitcoin cycle will demand a similar crescendo of suffering before a bottom appears remains uncertain; however, the fact that the Relative Unrealized Loss still lags behind its past peaks could be noteworthy.

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2026-04-11 00:41