Bitcoin Just Can’t Catch a Break: Why QT and Rate Cuts Still Didn’t Help

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So, markets decided to throw a little tantrum this week, because why not? Despite some amazing news, like the Federal Reserve announcing the end of quantitative tightening (QT), the US and China sharing a hug over their “trade truce,” and two rate cuts that might have been a hint at more monetary easing, Bitcoin was like, “Nah, I’m good.”

Oh, and let’s not forget the altcoin staking ETF approval. You’d think that would be a big deal, right? Well, apparently not, because rather than jumping up like it’s New Year’s Eve, Bitcoin and US equities decided to sink instead. How fun. On-chain data suggested institutions were like, “No thanks, we’re good,” and Jerome Powell’s “cautious” tone didn’t exactly fuel any optimism either.

By Friday, sentiment was about as stable as a toddler on a sugar rush, with Bitcoin hovering around a still-respectable $109,000.

Here’s the Data That Knew BTC Was Going to Take a Nap

So, there was this thing called the Coinbase Premium Gap, and it flipped negative again after teasing us with a recovery. This metric measures the price difference between Coinbase (a playground for US institutions) and global exchanges. Historically, this has been a sneaky way to track American institutional demand. When it goes negative, it basically means US investors are like, “Yeah, no thanks” or “We’ll wait until this is less of a dumpster fire.”

It’s safe to say that Bitcoin’s price didn’t exactly have the strong institutional backing it needed. Meanwhile, retail traders-blinded by all the great macro news-misread the liquidity signals and were probably like, “Oh, look, money!” They likely mistook it for demand. Spoiler alert: it wasn’t.

CryptoQuant, the ever-wise oracle of crypto analytics, blamed Powell’s “cautious” tone for the drop. Although QT officially ends on December 1 (mark your calendars, folks), Powell was like, “Don’t get too excited, a rate cut in December is NOT guaranteed,” causing everyone to second-guess their entire life choices. This threw off the market and-surprise!-Bitcoin took another dive. Oh, and by the way, the US-China truce wasn’t exactly holding hands forever, and don’t even get me started on the US nuclear testing drama.

Still, the silver lining (kind of) is that CryptoQuant believes this correction is just a cool-down from too much speculative heat. They’re not crying over Bitcoin’s little stumble; in fact, they think that once QT is fully over and liquidity gets its act together, Bitcoin-and the whole market-might see some upside into early 2026. That’s IF monetary and geopolitical conditions decide to stop being so extra, of course.

BTC’s Got a Tough Job: Hold $98,000

Meanwhile, TeraHash’s analytics team, looking at the situation through their crystal ball, says that Bitcoin’s long-term journey is still a “thing,” but its speed has noticeably slowed. According to a statement from CryptoPotato (fancy), they’re looking at $98,000 as the magic number. If Bitcoin falls below that, it could plummet to as low as $70,000. Drama, right?

“Look, it’s super important for Bitcoin to hold onto that $98,000 level like it’s holding onto the last slice of pizza. If it doesn’t, things could get ugly, and we could see it dip to the $90,000-$74,000 range. Beyond that? Well, say hello to a correction all the way down to $70,000-$60,000. But let’s not forget, Bitcoin is still getting love from the world’s biggest funds and is steadily gaining credibility. So, any major dip is probably not going to be a wild rollercoaster ride.”

They also threw in some hope for the future, saying that if the Fed keeps cutting rates and the macro conditions aren’t a mess, Bitcoin might just find its way to a shiny new all-time high by late 2025 or early 2026. But don’t hold your breath. Seriously.

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2025-10-31 14:07