Bitcoin: Euphoria or Just a Fleeting Dream?

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Ah, Bitcoin. It seems to have stirred, a slight convulsion of a digital beast, rising nearly 5% from the depths of near $88,400. One might almost call it a rebound…almost. The daily chart, however, reveals a more modest truth – a mere 2% uptick. A paltry showing, really, considering the fleeting enthusiasm of the past few hours. 🙄

This little tremor occurred with a suddenness that momentarily suggested a potential bottom. But alas, hope flickers dimly. Two imposing resistance zones, like stern guardians, remain to be conquered before we can speak of a true reversal of fortune. One wonders if the market is simply teasing us.

A Falling Wedge and a Peculiar On-Chain Waltz

For weeks, Bitcoin’s descent has been guided by that ominous falling wedge. Today’s reluctance to fall further does suggest that lower boundary still holds some sway. But more intriguing, if one is so inclined to be intrigued by such arcane matters, is the curious dance unfolding on the blockchain.

Between the 14th and 19th of November, while the price deigned to visit lower levels, the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) dared to climb, shifting from 0.98 to 0.99. A curious defiance, wouldn’t you agree? This SOPR, you see, reveals whether coins are being sold at a profit or, more commonly these days, a loss. A drop below 1 denotes a rather gloomy assembly of sellers.

Should you find yourself yearning for more pronouncements on the fleeting world of tokens, I direct you to the daily missives of Editor Harsh Notariya. Sign up, if you must, here. Though I suspect, enlightenment is never truly free. 📜

The climb in SOPR, while the price stumbled, hints at a stubborn refusal to succumb to panic. A show of conviction, perhaps? Or merely a denial of reality? One can never be certain. A similar scene played out earlier, between March 30th and April 8th, with the price dipping while SOPR ascended. That divergence, as they say, was a precursor to a rally. A 46% surge, no less, from $76,270 to $111,695. A rather dramatic flourish, wouldn’t you say?

And now, we see it again, this on-chain discord within the confines of the falling wedge. But do heed this caution: technical patterns are, at best, suggestive. On-chain behavior, reflecting actual spending habits, offers a slightly more reliable, though still imperfect, glimpse into the mind of the market.

Supply Zones: Obstacles on the Path to Recovery

However, this charming divergence requires a little cooperation from the price itself. It must, you see, overcome certain obstacles.

Glassnode’s URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) reveals two rather imposing supply clusters looming just above our current rebound. The first around $95,900 and the next near $100,900. These, naturally, align with certain key technical resistance levels, as is often the case.

URPD, for the uninitiated, illustrates at what prices coins were last moved. It highlights where hordes of hopeful – or desperate – holders reside, often acting as obstacles to further progress.

These are zones where former buyers, perhaps regretting their impulsiveness, may seek an opportunity to extricate themselves. Negotiating these levels, overcoming this resistance, is the true sign that a mere bounce has transformed into a genuine trend reversal.

Levels of Significance

First, the price must scale $95,700, a level that rebuffed previous attempts at recovery on November 15th. It also conveniently aligns with our aforementioned URPD cluster. Should it succeed, it may then dare to challenge $100,200, a Fibonacci barrier and a neighbor to that larger URPD cluster at $100,900. Only beyond this zone can we truly declare the falling wedge defeated.

Should Bitcoin falter, and succumb to weakness, losing the support near $88,400, further declines may be in store. Sentiment, alas, is a fickle mistress.

For now, Bitcoin has exhibited a rather neat bounce within the wedge, accompanied by this curious on-chain divergence. These two, combined, do offer a glimmer of hope for a bottom. But the resistances at $95,700 and $100,200 remain the arbiters of fate. Will it turn bullish, or is this merely a temporary reprieve? Only time, that relentless observer, will tell. 🤷

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2025-11-20 09:57