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BAFTA Longlist Predictions: How the Vital International Voting Bloc Could Shape the Oscar Race

Dec 24, 2024

As a seasoned film enthusiast and connoisseur of all things cinematic, I eagerly anticipate the BAFTA longlist every year. With my trusty popcorn bucket by my side and a lifetime of movie-watching under my belt, I can’t help but feel like I’m on the red carpet myself. The BAFTAs hold a special place in my heart as they often predict the winners of the Oscars, and this year looks particularly tantalizing.

The BAFTA Longlist marks an essential step in the award season timeline. Every year, it presents a carefully chosen group of contenders across various categories, acting as a stepping stone towards the official BAFTA nominations. It frequently serves as a strong indicator of potential victory at the Oscars.

The deadline for the Round One voting is fast approaching.

As a movie enthusiast, I’m always eager to see which films are gathering steam during the awards season. This phase is particularly intriguing because it gives us a sneak peek into the movies that have strong international backing – a crucial voting bloc within the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS).

As a movie enthusiast, I’ve noticed that the nominees for BAFTA and the Oscars have often shared common ground, especially in significant categories such as Best Picture, Director, and Acting awards. However, introducing juries more recently has brought an element of surprise to some of these categories. Lately, rule changes have been implemented with the intention of making the nominations better represent the diverse membership of BAFTA.

For best film, the top 10 vote-getters — determined by the entire BAFTA membership — will make the longlist, which will eventually be narrowed to five nominees. This process can provide key boosts for films like RaMell Ross’ “Nickel Boys” while potentially leading to stumbles for others, such as Greg Kwedar’s “Sing Sing.” Notably, “American Fiction” (2023) earned a single BAFTA nomination for adapted screenplay, which it won, alongside four Oscar nominations, including best picture. However, these outcomes remain far from being an exact science. Also, remember, “All of Us Strangers” had a terrific BAFTA longlist showing and went on to nab zero Oscar noms.

As a passionate cinephile, I’d say it like this: In the acting categories, the seven performers who receive the most votes automatically advance to the longlist. A distinguished jury then chooses the remaining three candidates from among those ranked from eighth to 13th. The top six nominees are selected purely based on the chapter votes, without any involvement from the jury in this final selection process.

In this film awards system, the top five male and female directors are chosen for the longlist without any jury involvement. If a nonbinary director or co-director pair ranks among the top 10, an extra spot is provided. This structure benefits European filmmakers such as Edward Berger (“Conclave”), who won two years ago for “All Quiet on the Western Front,” and Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Pérez”). However, it potentially disadvantages directors like RaMell Ross (“Nickel Boys”), Jon M. Chu (“Wicked”), and Sean Baker (“Anora”) by risking their exclusion. Furthermore, longer films like Brady Corbet’s “The Brutalist,” with its lengthy 215-minute runtime, might encounter challenges in securing votes from busy industry members during the holiday season and may not yet have been watched by them.

In the category of female directors, Payal Kapadia (“All We Imagine as Light”), Coralie Fargeat (“The Substance”), and Halina Reijn (“Babygirl”) appear to have strong chances for making it onto the longlist. Ellen Kuras (“Lee”) might be boosted by Kate Winslet’s star power, while Zoe Kravitz (“Blink Twice”) could potentially make an unexpected appearance on the list.

The acting chapter’s voting closes on Dec. 23, with the remaining categories wrapping up on Dec. 30. Big names expected on the longlist include Daniel Craig (“Queer”), Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), and Angelina Jolie (“Maria”). However, surprises are always possible.

Barry Keoghan and Sebastian Stan are both strong contenders, with multiple roles that could potentially earn them awards. Keoghan is sharing the lead role in “Bring Them Down” with Christopher Abbott, and he also has a supporting part in “Bird”. Either of these performances might secure him a nomination. On the other hand, Stan finds himself in a tough position as he delivers two leading performances: one as Donald Trump in “The Apprentice”, and another as a disfigured man in “A Different Man”. The jury might step in to boost one of his chances by favoring one role over the other.

In the running for best leading actress, Saoirse Ronan might pick up momentum with “The Outrun,” even though she’s also in contention as a supporting actress for “Blitz.” The longlist for best supporting actress could include pop stars like Selena Gomez (“Emilia Pérez”) and Ariana Grande (“Wicked”). For best supporting actor, we might see Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”), Yura Borisov (“Anora”), and potentially Denzel Washington in “Gladiator II,” though his past lack of nominations from BAFTA should be noted.

As a movie enthusiast, I’m eagerly anticipating the unveiling of the BAFTA longlist on January 3rd. On that same day, the nominations voting process begins and continues until the 10th of January. Just two days later, on the 15th, the final nominees will be announced – a mere couple of days after the Oscar voting concludes. In many ways, the longlist plays a pivotal role, as it sets the stage for narratives and influences the direction of Oscar campaigns as they gather momentum.

Check out the longlist predictions in all categories below.

See all Academy Award predictions

EbMaster Awards Circuit: Oscars

    Film Categories

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    Director and Performers

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    Artisans

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2024-12-24 00:46