AVAX ETF: A Triumph of Hope Over Experience?

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One begins to suspect that the current mood surrounding these ‘digital assets’ – a term one uses with a quite deliberate lack of enthusiasm – is, shall we say, less than buoyant. 2026 dawns, and not a few of these speculative bubbles appear to be deflating with a rather audible hiss.

The latest illustration of this scarcely surprising phenomenon is the launch of VanEck’s U.S. spot Avalanche [AVAX] ETF. A venture, it transpires, greeted with something resembling indifference, judging by its frankly pathetic showing of zero inflows and a mere $330,000 in trading volume. One shudders to think of the marketing budget involved.

Contrast this, if one may, with the Bitwise Solana [SOL] ETF, which bloomed into existence after a market correction of the sort that usually precipitates thorough self-reflection. Yet, despite the prevailing gloom, it managed a respectable $69 million in inflows and $58 million in trading volume. A veritable windfall, comparatively speaking.

And then there’s Ripple’s first spot XRP ETF (Canary Capital, naturally), which arrived with a flourish of $245 million. Even Chainlink’s Grayscale LINK ETF managed to attract $41 million. The AVAX ETF’s debut, one feels obliged to point out, was a touch…understated.

Whether this is merely a sluggish beginning, or a grim portent for the wider altcoin ETF market remains, as the Americans say, to be seen. Mr. James Seyffart of Bloomberg – a man who quite possibly spends too much time staring at charts – suggests many of the top 20 crypto assets will have their own ETF, but confesses to a preference for index products. A sagacious admission, perhaps.

AVAX’s debut met with ‘extreme fear’

Indeed, ‘extreme fear’ seems a rather apt description of the prevailing sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index deigned to drop to a dismal 20 at launch, improving only marginally to a slightly less despairing 29. As one might expect.

In short, speculators viewed the altcoin with the sort of intense distaste typically reserved for unpleasant relatives. The ETF’s arrival did nothing to alter this assessment, which is, in a way, entirely predictable.

The Open Interest (OI) – a measure of speculative mania, one supposes – offers a similarly uninspiring narrative. Since the rather dramatic crash of October, AVAX’s OI has plummeted from nearly $1 billion to a rather forlorn figure below $200 million. A truly precipitous decline.

Demand, one concludes, is demonstrably flat. The price, predictably, managed a paltry 2% bounce, remaining stubbornly stuck in the $11-$15 range.

The bulls offered a rather half-hearted defence of the $11 level in mid-December, and have attempted a similar effort this week. However, the tepid reaction to the ETF news does not inspire confidence in their chances of pushing toward $13 or $15.

A breach of the $11 support level would, naturally, herald further decline, quite possibly plunging the price below the psychologically important $10 mark, should the prevailing bearishness continue. One anticipates a rather tiresome period of recriminations and blame assignment.

Final Thoughts 

  • The inaugural AVAX ETF, unlike its more fortunate brethren, managed to attract precisely zero inflows and a modest $330,000 in trading volume. A truly remarkable feat of market apathy.
  • Speculative interest remains profoundly sluggish, and the general mood is, to put it mildly, decidedly glum.

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2026-01-28 08:07