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‘Anora,’ ‘Nosferatu,’ ‘Nickel Boys’ and More Could Use DGA, PGA and WGA Noms for Big Boosts in Oscar Race

Jan 8, 2025

Following the Golden Globe Awards on Sunday, Hollywood has now moved into the “tournament” phase of the Oscar season. More than two dozen movies are competing for nominations in every category at the Academy Awards, making the coming week crucial for each campaign’s success.

On January 8th at 9 a.m. Pacific Time, members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will start casting their votes for nominations. In anticipation, studios are intensifying their efforts to ensure their films make it onto the prestigious list of nominees. The intense excitement is further fueled by the upcoming announcements of nominations from major Hollywood guilds such as SAG, DGA, WGA, PGA, and ASC, which will be revealed over the next three days while voting is ongoing. These acknowledgements from these guilds can either propel a film to the frontrunner position or potentially halt its campaign altogether.

As the tension mounts, the Critics Choice Awards take place on January 14th at 5 pm PT, which is only an hour before Oscar nomination voting ends. Every honor and news article this week matters significantly as studios and publicists race against time to keep their films in contention for recognition.

There’s a five-way race for best picture, and that’s not hyperbolic.

At present, “Anora,” directed by Baker, is in the lead for the season’s most prestigious film awards with 16 victories under its belt. This low-key drama has been highly praised by critics, received a standing ovation at Cannes, and won the Palme d’Or. Yet, it’s missing from this year’s Golden Globes lineup, which is causing some discontent. But remember the team behind “Spotlight” (2014)? They might say it can still make a comeback.

Following closely behind is “The Brutalist” by Corbet, which has garnered nine wins, one of them being a significant triumph at the Globes. This 215-minute epic has shown itself to be a strong competitor. On the other hand, “The Substance,” a body-horror thriller directed by Coralie Fargeat, is starting to look like a potential underdog in major categories. With six best picture critics’ awards, it’s been winning over audiences with its gripping narrative, feminist themes, and visceral storytelling.

At the Directors Guild of America (DGA), it’s anticipated that the Best Director category will mirror the frontrunners for Best Picture. Potential nominees might be Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Pérez”), Sean Baker (“Anora”), Edward Berger (“Conclave”), Jon M. Chu (“Wicked”), and Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”). At the moment, Corbet is ahead in director awards with 10 wins, which is two more than Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”), who needs a strong performance to maintain his chances.

Keep an eye on the DGA’s First-Time Feature category, as it highlights debuting narrative filmmakers. This year, former documentary filmmakers like Payal Kapadia (“All We Imagine as Light”) and RaMell Ross (“Nickel Boys”) are eligible for nominations and may be strong contenders to win the award. The competition is also expected to feature several prominent female directors, given the dominance of women in the last three years. Additionally, two cinematographers, Rachel Morrison (“The Fire Inside”) and Ellen Kuras (“Lee”), are making their directorial debuts, as well as possible actor-turned-directors Anna Kendrick (“Woman of the Hour”) and Zoë Kravitz (“Blink Twice”).

The First-Time Feature category is a key one to watch at this year’s DGA Awards. It recognizes new narrative filmmakers, with former documentary makers Payal Kapadia and RaMell Ross being potential candidates for the prize. The field also includes multiple talented female directors, as they have been prominent in recent years. Don’t forget to check out Rachel Morrison and Ellen Kuras, who are now directing their first films, along with actor-turned-directors Anna Kendrick and Zoë Kravitz.

During the upcoming PGA nominations set to be announced on Friday, the guild is following closely in the footsteps of last year’s Oscar best picture lineup with a perfect 10-for-10 match (an unprecedented feat). However, we don’t predict this trend to continue this year, as it’s been dubbed “Year Without a Frontrunner.” Movies like “Challengers” and “Inside Out 2,” which are popular blockbusters, could potentially shake up the competition. This is especially crucial for independent films such as “A Real Pain” and “Sing Sing,” which will need to secure a place in the nominations if they hope to make an impact.

Often, the nominees chosen by the Writers Guild of America (WGA) differ from those at the Oscars because of eligibility limitations. This year, here are some works that don’t qualify for WGA consideration:

1. “All We Envision as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow) -> “What Shines Within Us” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
2. “The Brutalist” (A24) -> “Harsh Architecture” (A24)
3. “Didi” (Focus Features) -> “Beloved Sister” (Focus Features)
4. “A Different Man” (A24) -> “An Uncommon Hero” (A24)
5. “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) -> “Unyielding Realities” (Bleecker Street)
6. “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) -> “Three Generations” (Netflix)
7. “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24) -> “The Luminous Screen” (A24)
8. “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon) -> “The Mysterious Fruit” (Neon)
9. “September 5” (Paramount Pictures) -> “Remembrance of September 5th” (Paramount Pictures)
10. “The Substance” (Mubi) -> “Essence and Existence” (Mubi)

Unadapted screenplays that are not yet produced: “Conclave” (Focus Features), “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix), “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics), the sequel to “Inside Out” (Pixar), “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics), “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics), “Sing Sing” (A24), and “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)

Or, in a more conversational tone: These are the scripts that haven’t been turned into movies yet: “Conclave”, “Emilia Pérez”, “I’m Still Here”, the second installment of “Inside Out”, “The Outrun”, “The Room Next Door”, “Sing Sing”, and “The Wild Robot”.

The list in question will feature “Anora” and “A Real Pain,” both strong possibilities. Particularly interesting is that this lineup could serve as a decisive move for “Challengers,” produced by Amazon MGM, if it aims to compete with debut screenwriter Justin Kurtz (who also has “Queer” in the adapted category). Conversely, this could be the final opportunity for “Saturday Night,” produced by Sony Pictures, to appear on the nomination list.

With more original works likely in contention than adapted ones, the absence of “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez,” and “Sing Sing” – all predicted to receive Oscar nominations – creates an opportunity for movies such as Searchlight Pictures’ “A Complete Unknown,” Amazon MGM Studios’ “The Nickel Boys,” and Universal Pictures’ “Wicked.” It also presents another chance for “Dune: Part Two” to gain momentum, with the last spot possibly going to the streaming success “Hit Man,” surprise box office smash “Nosferatu,” or indie film “Nightbitch.

Ultimately, the American Society of Cinematographers is predicted to recognize veterans such as Ed Lachman (“Maria”) and Greig Fraser (“Dune: Part Two”). Meanwhile, Lol Crawley (“The Brutalist”), who was nominated for a spotlight award for Corbet’s debut film “The Childhood of a Leader”, may gain attention for his exceptional cinematography and captivating visual effects.

In the countdown to the Oscars, the upcoming five days are crucial for defining this year’s awards storyline. By next week, we should have a clearer picture — or maybe an even more excitingly unpredictable one. Here are EbMaster’s final predictions in the following four guild categories:

1. Producers Guild of America (PGA) Award for Best Picture
2. Directors Guild of America (DGA) Award for Outstanding Directorial Achievement
3. Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
4. Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Explore Awards Circuit Predictions Pages
Oscars  |  Emmys  |  Grammys  |  Tonys
See all Academy Award predictions

EbMaster Awards Circuit: Oscars

    DGA – Feature Film

    !function{“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;e[r].style.height=i}}}))};

    DGA: First-Time Director

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    WGA: Adapted Screenplay

    !function{“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;e[r].style.height=i}}}))};

    WGA: Original Screenplay

    !function{“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;e[r].style.height=i}}}))};

    ASC: Best Cinematography

    !function{“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;e[r].style.height=i}}}))};

    PGA: Best Motion Picture

    !function{“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;e[r].style.height=i}}}))};

    PGA: Animated Feature

    !function{“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;e[r].style.height=i}}}))};

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2025-01-08 02:17