Altcoins Lost $450B in 3 Months: Recovery or False Start?

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Altcoins Lost $450 Billion in Three Months: The Recovery Is Selective

Key Takeaways

  • The altcoin market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum stands at $706 billion.
  • The Altcoin Season Index sits at 32.
  • TOTAL3 is recovering above its 50 SMA with RSI at 60.69.
  • Michaël van de Poppe sees TAO and NEAR as the strongest recovery candidates.
  • ARB and similar altcoins are showing bullish divergences across the board.
  • Altcoin Sherpa favors HyperLiquid structurally over Lighter.

Three Months, $450 Billion Gone

In early 2026, altcoins—cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin—were at their strongest point. The Altcoin Season Index, a measure of their performance, nearly reached its highest possible value, and most major altcoins were growing faster than Bitcoin. The combined value of all these altcoins, not including Bitcoin and Ethereum, totaled $1.4 trillion.

Its value has dropped to around $950 billion. This represents a $450 billion decrease in just one quarter, caused by overall economic challenges, investors becoming more cautious, and money shifting back into Bitcoin as concerns grew.

CoinMarketCap currently shows the Altcoin Season Index at 32. An index below 25 indicates a Bitcoin Season, meaning the market is very close to shifting its focus back to Bitcoin. Currently, money isn’t flowing into altcoins; instead, it’s remaining with Bitcoin as investors wait for clearer signs of improvement in the overall economic conditions.

We haven’t seen a clear sign of a market turnaround yet. Instead, we’re seeing small improvements in certain investments, even though the overall market is still struggling. It’s important to recognize this difference – knowing whether these gains are real opportunities or just temporary blips is key to making smart investment decisions.

The Market Structure: Improving, Not Confirmed

The TOTAL3 index, which tracks the overall performance of altcoins, currently shows a positive trend. As of April 6th, it’s at $706 billion (according to TradingView), staying above its 50-day moving average of $699 billion. The index is also showing signs of recovery, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60.69 after briefly falling into oversold territory in late March. Trading volume increased as the price rebounded, and it has consistently stayed above the moving average throughout early April.

While this looks promising on the surface, it’s important to be careful. TOTAL3 has tried to recover twice since February, but both times, a drop in Bitcoin’s price caused those attempts to fail. The current situation is very similar – the price is above the moving average, momentum is increasing, and trading volume is rising. Any real difference this time will likely come from external factors, like new economic data, global events, and whether Bitcoin can maintain its current support levels this week.

The TOTAL3 chart shows altcoins aren’t crashing, but it doesn’t guarantee a lasting recovery. Understanding this difference is key when considering the following analysis.

Where the Setups Are and What Analysts Are Actually Saying

Even though Bitcoin is still dominating the market, some other cryptocurrencies are starting to show interesting technical patterns that experts are keeping a close eye on. Two analyses released on April 6th offer contrasting perspectives, and comparing them helps to understand what’s happening in the market right now.

Michaël van de Poppe is currently watching the AI and layer-1 sectors closely. He observed that TAO quickly found support around $297 before rising back to $323, suggesting a buying opportunity if the price dips between $280 and $300. He believes both TAO and NEAR are poised for a stronger recovery than most other altcoins, not due to immediate price gains, but because of their fundamental position within the market as it potentially shifts towards riskier assets.

briefly touched that area of support and bounced back upwards.

As a researcher, I’m currently trying to determine if we’re seeing the start of another upward trend. That’s why I’m focusing on higher timeframe levels to identify potential opportunities to buy the dips.

I do think that and have a stronger leg to go for the markets.

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL)

We’re seeing a similar pattern emerge in many altcoins: after a significant price drop, indicators suggest the selling is likely ending. This happens when the price hits a new low, but momentum indicators don’t confirm it – a sign that downward pressure is weakening. If Bitcoin holds steady, these altcoins could potentially increase in value by up to 100%. However, this relies on two things: easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Bitcoin avoiding further price declines.

Just a friendly note that many charts look like this one. This is simply an example, but quite a few are showing strong bullish divergences – a technical signal suggesting a potential price reversal – and may gain momentum soon.

Usually it’s a strong run, and it’s all about…

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL)

He examined HyperLiquid and Lighter from a fresh perspective. While both charts appeared promising in the short term, he quickly clarified that this was likely due to a temporary pause in Bitcoin’s volatility, not because these other cryptocurrencies were performing well on their own.

He believes HyperLiquid generally performs better than Lighter, especially when looking at longer-term trading data. This is because HyperLiquid has a built-in advantage due to its direct involvement in on-chain trading of assets like stocks and commodities, something Lighter lacks. While Lighter might do well in the short term, he sees this as a temporary situation and not a reason to change his overall view.

Both charts appear fairly good, likely because Bitcoin hasn’t been fluctuating much recently. However, I still believe HyperLiquid will perform significantly better than Lighter over the long term, although Lighter might have brief periods of stronger performance.

— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa)

The difference between van de Poppe’s trading approach and Altcoin Sherpa’s long-term strategy highlights the current state of the altcoin market. Both short-term trades and longer-term investments are possible, but it’s important to understand which one you’re pursuing. They require different approaches, and the current market conditions demand clarity.

The Variable Neither Chart Can Price

Both analysts are cautious in their predictions, and both agree that the key factor is Bitcoin’s price. Van de Poppe explicitly states this, while Altcoin Sherpa bases their analysis of HYPE and LIT on whether Bitcoin’s price remains stable. Neither analyst is confidently predicting a large increase in altcoin prices without that stability.

The future of the altcoin market is closely linked to what’s happening in the broader economy this week. Whether altcoins recover or fall further depends on if Bitcoin can maintain its support level around $63,111 – a key floor identified by analyst Ali Martinez. If Bitcoin holds steady, the trading opportunities spotted by van de Poppe and Altcoin Sherpa could become profitable. However, if Bitcoin drops below that level, the $450 billion already lost in the altcoin market could see even greater losses.

When Van de Poppe mentions the Strait of Hormuz, it’s a pointed observation. Reduced tension in that area could lower oil prices, ease concerns about inflation, and give the Federal Reserve more flexibility with its policies. This is what altcoins need for a lasting recovery – not a quick price jump, but a stable economic backdrop that supports any positive technical patterns. Without this foundation, any gains are unlikely to hold.

Friday’s CPI print is where that chain either strengthens or breaks.

The Bigger Picture

For altcoins to truly start performing well again, the Altcoin Season Index needs to climb above 75. Currently, it’s at 32 and has been decreasing since January. Recent positive signals from coins like ARB or TAO aren’t enough to close this gap. What’s needed is a broader improvement in the overall economic environment that encourages investors to take on more risk.

Analysts are currently pinpointing assets with the potential to perform well when the market changes, rather than confirming that change has already happened. The opportunities van de Poppe is tracking – like TAO and NEAR – are for getting in early, not proof the move has begun. According to Altcoin Sherpa, HyperLiquid’s strengths will become apparent over a longer period, like months, not immediately.

As a crypto investor, I’m seeing some interesting technical setups in altcoins right now, but the overall economic picture is still uncertain. This means there are potential opportunities if you know what you’re looking for and have a plan, but it’s really easy to mistake a temporary bounce for a full recovery – and that could be costly. It’s a selective market, so you have to be careful.

This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Always do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor before investing.

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2026-04-06 18:07