The Path Sinners Could Take to Oscars Victory? We’ve Seen It Before

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Every year, there’s usually one movie that comes out of nowhere during the Oscars season. These films typically aren’t released until late in the year, keeping them under wraps for as long as possible. For example, remember how Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper unexpectedly became a major contender in 2014, or how Steven Spielberg’s The Post kept everyone guessing about its chances in 2017?

This year’s Oscars have a surprising potential frontrunner: the film Sinners. Released back in April, before the major film festivals, it’s been a topic of discussion among awards experts for months. Sinners has received excellent reviews and has also been a hit with audiences, increasing the chances that Academy voters have seen it. However, its genre and subject matter are different from typical Oscar winners, leading some to question how far it can go. Despite this, the Academy has recently shown more openness to science fiction and horror films, which could benefit Sinners.

It’s easy to argue why Sinners deserves an Oscar. The film was hugely popular, earning $297 million domestically – making it the fifth highest-grossing movie of the year – and received overwhelmingly positive reviews. Critics gave it a score of 84 on Metacritic, indicating “universal acclaim,” and audiences exiting theaters gave it an “A” grade. This strong positive reception is a great starting point for an Oscar campaign. Furthermore, director Ryan Coogler is poised for a breakthrough moment. His previous films, including Creed and the Black Panther movies, have earned a total of 14 nominations and 4 wins in the last ten years. Despite this success, Coogler has never been nominated for Best Director, making him a strong candidate for a campaign highlighting that it’s finally “his time” to be recognized.

That’s where the potential challenges lie. While Sinners explores important themes – racial injustice in the Jim Crow South, Black entrepreneurship, the power of music and dance, and the exploitation of Black art – it’s fundamentally a vampire movie. This isn’t a dealbreaker, but it might discourage some Academy voters, particularly those who look down on genre films or are hesitant to embrace horror. The Academy has historically been reluctant to recognize horror movies, despite a few exceptions like The Silence of the Lambs, Carrie, and The Exorcist. There are many more critically acclaimed horror films, such as The Shining, The Thing, and recent performances by Toni Collette in Hereditary and Florence Pugh in Midsommar, that were overlooked.

Michael B. Jordan has consistently been overlooked by the Oscars, despite strong performances that seemed like clear contenders. While films like Fruitvale Station, Creed, and Black Panther generated buzz, he wasn’t nominated for his work in them. Even when he took on roles in traditionally Oscar-friendly genres, such as the dramas Just Mercy and A Journal for Jordan, he didn’t receive awards attention. Now, with Sinners, he delivers what many believe is his strongest performance yet, playing twin brothers with subtly different personalities. Like with director Ryan Coogler, there’s a chance voters will finally recognize his talent, acknowledging he’s been deserving for a while. However, there’s also the frustrating possibility that the Academy simply doesn’t fully appreciate his work.

Some other potential downsides seem less significant. It’s always a concern that films released early in the year might lose momentum before awards season, but this isn’t always the case. There’s also the unusual deal Ryan Coogler made with Warner Bros., giving him back the rights to Sinners after 25 years. When the film first became popular, many in Hollywood worried this deal could create problems for studios in the future. Now, with Sinners competing for Oscars against another Warner Bros. film, One Battle After Another, will the studio fully support a movie they know they’ll only profit from for a limited time?

There’s good reason to believe Sinners could be an Oscar contender, largely because the Academy has changed significantly. Recent efforts to diversify its membership have resulted in a younger, more international group of voters who seem open to more unconventional films. Each year, we see more nominees that challenge traditional “Oscar movie” expectations – think of films like Barbie, The Substance, or The Shape of Water. While Sinners would be a first-of-its-kind winner, so was Parasite, proving the Academy is willing to embrace truly original work.

Looking at recent Oscar winners, two films – Mad Max: Fury Road and Everything Everywhere All at Once – offer a good model for how Sinners might perform. Neither fit the traditional mold of an “Oscar movie,” yet both were hugely successful, winning six and seven awards respectively (with Everything Everywhere All at Once taking home Best Picture). The similarities between Fury Road and Sinners are especially strong: both are more action-packed and violent than most films typically recognized by the Academy, and both were praised by critics as being uniquely directed, which is becoming less common. Fury Road received significant early praise, including Best Film from the National Board of Review and Best Director for George Miller from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. While many expect Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another to dominate this year’s critics’ awards, a win for Sinners from one of the three major critics groups (NBR, LAFCA, and the New York Film Critics Circle) would be a very positive sign.

Similar to Mad Max: Fury Road, I anticipate Sinners will be a strong contender for awards recognizing technical achievements like costume design, production design, and music. Several key creatives – including costume designer Ruth E. Carter, production designer Hannah Beachler, and composer Ludwig Göransson – have already won Oscars for Black Panther and are likely nominees again. Cinematographer Autumn Durald Arkapaw, editor Michael P. Shawver, and casting director Francine Maisler could also receive their first Oscar nominations. However, Fury Road excelled in the technical categories but didn’t win the top prizes – Spotlight won Best Picture and The Revenant earned Alejandro G. Iñárritu Best Director. We might see a similar outcome this year, with One Battle After Another or Hamnet potentially winning the major awards.

A key difference between Fury Road and Sinners is their potential for acting nominations. While Fury Road wasn’t a strong contender in acting categories, Sinners boasts a wealth of talented performers. In addition to Michael B. Jordan as a potential Best Actor nominee, several supporting actors – including Delroy Lindo, Miles Caton, and Jack O’Connell – and actresses, especially Wunmi Mosaku and Hailee Steinfeld, could also be nominated. The cast might be Sinners‘ biggest strength during awards season. As my colleague Nate Jones noted last year, films with strong ensemble casts have frequently won Best Picture. He called it the “big, happy family” effect, but as Anora demonstrated, a close-knit cast doesn’t necessarily need to be a family onscreen; sometimes, the camaraderie shown by actors like Yura Borisov and Mark Eydelshteyn during promotional events is enough.

The film Sinners is gaining momentum with features like the one in Elle, where stars Mosaku, Steinfels, and Jayme Lawson discuss their work on the movie. The cast will also be honored with the Ensemble Tribute Award at next month’s Gotham Awards, recognizing the collective performance of Jordan, Lindo, Caton, O’Connell, Mosaku, Steinfeld, Lawson, Omar Benson Miller, Li Jun Li, and Buddy Guy.

The possibility of earning acting nominations positions the film Sinners on a similar path to Everything Everywhere All at Once. Like Sinners, that film debuted early in the year, sparked widespread conversation, and made people question whether the Academy Awards would recognize such an unconventional movie. Ultimately, it achieved a near-sweep of the major awards. However, it wasn’t until the precursor awards began to be announced – with Ke Huy Quan winning Best Supporting Actor repeatedly and Stephanie Hsu gaining traction alongside Jamie Lee Curtis for Best Supporting Actress – that it became clear how deeply voters connected with the film’s unique style.

For Sinners to win big, everything would need to go perfectly, and that’s a tough ask. This year’s competition is particularly strong. All Quiet on the Western Front doesn’t have the same directorial buzz as One Battle After Another, and Tár simply doesn’t evoke the same emotional response as Hamnet. To really succeed, Sinners also needs voters to rally around specific performances from its cast. While ensemble awards are helpful—and will likely position Sinners well for the new Best Casting award—they won’t give an actor like Delroy Lindo the individual recognition he deserves. It’s also unclear whether having both Wunmi Mosaku and Hailee Steinfeld competing in the Supporting Actress category will help or hinder their chances. The Oscars have nominated co-stars together in the past, quite often in fact. However, Sinners is a truly unique film, and there are no guarantees when it comes to its Oscar prospects.

Best Picture

Up ⬆ Sinners

As my colleague Nate Jones pointed out earlier this year, we’re now wondering which of Ryan Coogler’s films will be his breakthrough hit, similar to how Christopher Nolan’s films were. Will it be Sinners, like Nolan’s Inception which received several award nominations and wins? Or will it be a film like Dunkirk, which finally earned Nolan a Best Director nomination? Or could it be his next big blockbuster, something like Oppenheimer that’s impossible to ignore? After all the buzz around Sinners, I’m hoping for that kind of success – the possibilities are endless!

Down ⬇ Nuremberg

I was hoping a film about the Nuremberg trials – bringing those responsible for the Nazis’ crimes to justice – would resonate with audiences right now, but unfortunately, it hasn’t been successful. Low ticket sales and average reviews suggest it hasn’t captured the public’s interest.

Current Predix

Here’s a list of titles: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Is This Thing On?, It Was Just an Accident, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, and Train Dreams.

Best Director

Up ⬆ Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Honestly, I was so excited thinking this director was about to make history as the first Black winner of Best Director! I was even going to point out he’d be the first Sacramento State grad to ever win an Oscar, but then I found out Tom Hanks also went to Sac State, so that part wasn’t quite true. Still, a huge moment if he wins!

Down ⬇ Lynne Ramsay, Die My Love

Given the recent conversations about changing tastes at the Academy Awards, I’m still not sure if Lynne Ramsay’s intense and dynamic filmmaking will ever appeal to Oscar voters.

Current Predix

Several filmmakers are currently working on new projects: Chloé Zhao is directing Hamnet, Jafar Panahi is working on It Was Just an Accident, Josh Safdie is directing Marty Supreme, Paul Thomas Anderson is helming One Battle After Another, and Ryan Coogler is working on Sinners.

Best Actor

Up ⬆ Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Each year, one movie consistently appears in photos across news websites and social media. Recently, that movie has been The Secret Agent, with images of Wagner Moura at a gas station – looking intense and rebellious with his shirt open – getting a lot of attention. This is a smart move by the film’s distributor, Neon, as they aim for Oscar recognition.

Down ⬇ Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

There was a lot of excitement before the film festival about Jesse Plemons’s acting in Bugonia, and he truly delivers. However, since Focus Features started heavily promoting the movie with images of Emma Stone’s shaved head, she’s been getting all the attention. Plemons really needs a surprise Golden Globe nomination to get the recognition he deserves.

Current Predix

Timothée Chalamet is starring in Marty Supreme, Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another, Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon, Michael B. Jordan in Sinners, and Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent.

Best Actress

Up ⬆ Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Everyone’s saying Kate Hudson is fantastic in the new movie Song Sung Blue, directed by Craig Brewer. It’s about a couple who perform as a Neil Diamond tribute act, and Hugh Jackman is also in it. But please, don’t get too excited if it doesn’t live up to the hype!

Down ⬇ Sydney Sweeney, Christy

The movie’s poor performance in theaters is already a problem, and now it’s become a news story in itself. This makes it unlikely Sweeney will win any awards, which is disappointing, especially since the film received a very positive reaction when it first screened at the Toronto Film Festival.

Current Predix

As a total film buff, I’ve been keeping track of some amazing performances lately. Jessie Buckley really blew me away in Hamnet, and Rose Byrne was fantastic in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. I’m also incredibly excited about seeing Cynthia Erivo in Wicked: For Good. Renate Reinsve’s work in Sentimental Value has been getting a lot of buzz, and I’ve heard great things about Amanda Seyfried’s performance in The Testament of Ann Lee.

Best Supporting Actor

Up ⬆ Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

In his latest film, Bradley Cooper stepped behind the camera as director and made a surprising choice: he didn’t star as the lead. Instead, he took on a supporting role and clearly relished it, delivering all of the movie’s best jokes. He’s a delight, and deserves recognition for how much fun he’s having.

Up ⬆ Billy Crudup, Jay Kelly

With The Morning Show still being talked about, I want to highlight Billy Crudup’s outstanding performance as Jay Kelly – he truly deserves recognition for it.

Current Predix

The cast includes Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn in One Battle After Another, Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein, Paul Mescal in Hamnet, and Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value.

Best Supporting Actress

Up ⬆ Amy Madigan, Weapons

You know, I’m starting to think the Academy might actually give some love to films like Weapons and Sinners – they’re not completely dismissing more gritty stuff anymore. And that’s fantastic news for Amy Madigan, a truly amazing actress. Plus, she’s got a real advantage in the Supporting Actress race because she’s one of the few nominees who doesn’t have another actor from her own film competing against her for the same award. That always helps!

Down ⬇ Glenn Close, Wake Up, Dead Man

If Glenn Close doesn’t receive serious Oscar consideration for Wake Up, Dead Man – a film directly addressing the emergence of leaders similar to Trump and J.D. Vance – especially after the strong push for her nomination for Hillbilly Elegy, that will be very noteworthy!

Current Predix

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas stars in Sentimental Value; Amy Madigan appears in Weapons; Wunmi Mosaku performs in Sinners; Ariana Grande is featured in Wicked: For Good; and Teyana Taylor is in One Battle After Another.

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2025-11-15 02:59