‘Captain America: Brave New World’ Opened to $100 Million. Does a ‘B-’ CinemaScore Spell Trouble For Staying Power?

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“The movie ‘Captain America: Brave New World’ demonstrates that Marvel still packs a punch. This fourth Captain America installment, featuring Anthony Mackie as Sam Wilson wielding the star-spangled shield for the first time, earned an impressive $100 million in its domestic opening during the extended Presidents Day weekend. The film also raked in another $92.4 million internationally, bringing its worldwide total to a strong $192.4 million, making it the standout start of the year so far.”

Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe typically has a strong start on opening weekends, as seen by the fact that all 35 films in the series have debuted at No.1, including those criticized as “a pile of dirt.” So, when it comes to “Captain America: Brave New World,” what will be closely watched is its longevity – a term used in the industry to describe how well a movie maintains its box office performance over subsequent weekends. This is particularly important because the MCU has faced challenges in maintaining consistent commercial success since the record-breaking success of “Avengers: Endgame” in 2019, and producing these superhero sequels doesn’t come cheap. For instance, “Captain America: Brave New World” had a production cost of over $180 million and another $100 million was spent on marketing worldwide. It’s one of three Marvel movies scheduled for this year, with “Thunderbolts” and “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” coming later in the summer.

According to Jeff Bock, a movie industry analyst from Exhibitor Relations, there doesn’t seem to be any upcoming release that could compete with ‘Captain America’. If people are seeking big-budget entertainment, ‘Captain America’ is the only choice available right now.

In other words, there’s no major four-quadrant blockbuster scheduled until Disney’s “Snow White” remake on March 21st. For cinemas to be financially successful, “Captain America: Brave New World” needs to perform as strongly as “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” did in 2023, instead of being comparable to “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” or “The Marvels”.

In the opening week of summer’s movie season, “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” raked in an impressive $118 million domestically. It managed to keep audiences hooked during subsequent weekends, although its earnings gradually decreased by approximately 47% in its second and third showings and 35% in its fourth. Compared to similar-sized superhero films, these figures represent fairly stable viewership retention. Ultimately, the third “Guardians” movie grossed $358 million in North America and a substantial $845 million worldwide. This success serves as an optimistic forecast for Captain America’s upcoming cinematic journey.

Even Marvel’s most successful blockbusters have seen a drop after setting new records following the “Endgame” era. For instance, “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” and “Thor: Love and Thunder,” which grossed $955 million and $760 million respectively in 2022, each experienced a 67% decrease in their second weeks at the box office.

Stepping into the realm of cinema criticism, I must share my thoughts on “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania,” which raked in an impressive $120 million during its debut over Presidents Day weekend in 2023. However, it’s worth mentioning that this third installment received some of the harshest reviews within the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU), leading to a staggering 70% decrease in ticket sales just one week later. Despite its initial success, the film ultimately fell short of reaching the $500 million mark globally – a modest milestone for Marvel productions. On a related note, “The Marvels,” the only MCU movie to stumble at the starting line, experienced a 78% decline in its second weekend as well.

According to Bock, these movies (such as “Cocaine Bear” and “Jesus Revolution”) have a potential for extended viewership, unlike “Ant-Man,” which he’s comparing to sleeper hits that premiered following “Quantumania.

Brave New World” isn’t getting very positive feedback from critics or audiences, which might impact its longevity in cinemas. The movie has received rather low ratings, especially compared to other Marvel Cinematic Universe films, with a 51% average rating on Rotten Tomatoes and a mediocre “B-” grade based on audience exit polls conducted by CinemaScore.

Despite some negative buzz, it’s possible that the film, backed by Cap and his team, could still generate significant box office revenue. The movie attracted a wide audience, with 35% of its opening weekend viewers being Caucasian, 26% Latino and Hispanic, 23% Black, and 10% Asian. This diverse appeal suggests that the film has the potential to transform from a simple hit into a blockbuster sensation (comparable to the Hulk).

Furthermore, reliable sources connected to the superhero adaptation suggest that CinemaScore may not accurately represent audience opinions towards the movie. This is due to the fact that these grades are given based on a limited number of theater-goers polled. In contrast, Rotten Tomatoes, which provides a broader measurement, shows “Captain America: Brave New World” with a stronger 80% positive rating from verified audience members. Similarly, PostTrak, another audience rating system, indicates that parents and children gave the film a high score of four out of five stars. However, it’s noted that general audiences only awarded three out of five stars to the movie.

In my opinion, the highly anticipated film “Captain America: Brave New World” made quite an impact when it debuted, particularly in premium formats like Imax, Dolby, and others. Interestingly, these pricier tickets accounted for an impressive 44% of the initial sales. This boost has been crucial in countering a noticeable dip in overall attendance, making it a win-win situation for both moviegoers and the box office.

According to Chris Randleman from Flix Brewhouse in Texas, they’re quite pleased with their situation. Surprisingly, foot traffic has been excellent despite some reviews. The movie is easy to understand and has a compelling premise.

He notes, “It seems like we’re experiencing a significant decrease in ticket sales. However, this can be explained by the fact that this weekend is unusually busy due to the combined celebrations of Valentine’s Day and President’s Day.

Following some less-than-impressive performances from “Ant-Man” and “The Marvels,” Disney’s CEO Bob Iger implemented a new company policy to prioritize quality over quantity. During a 2023 earnings call, he stated, “Before the pandemic, we were heavily investing in producing more content.” He admitted that this focus had been lost. In that year, apart from three cinematic releases, there were also three Disney+ television series. The following year, 2024, was unusual with only one film (and another three seasons of television) scheduled. The R-rated comedy “Deadpool & Wolverine,” starring two highly popular comic book characters, turned out to be a massive success, earning $1.33 billion worldwide.

Marvel returns to its normal lineup with two highly anticipated releases scheduled over the next six months: “Thunderbolts” on May 2nd and “The Fantastic Four: First Footsteps” on July 25th. Meanwhile, DC Comics is set to release a new take on Superman, directed by James Gunn, on July 11th. The upcoming four comic book adaptations of this year are expected to breathe new life into the unpredictable superhero genre in Hollywood.

According to Bock, the film industry greatly benefits from Marvel productions. In fact, no other movie opens to earnings exceeding $100 million in the month of February. Having three such films scheduled is certainly an optimistic sign.

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2025-02-17 19:18