It Looks Like Emilia Pérez Is the Best Picture Front-runner Right Now

After the announcement of the Oscar nominations, the following week tends to be relatively quiet on the awards scene. However, this year is different as the film industry takes a moment to assess after the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles. The media has been buzzing with negative headlines about one particular contender, but things will pick up again next weekend with the Critics Choice Awards. These events will kick off a busy February filled with precursor ceremonies. Although these awards can provide some insight into the Best Picture race, which remains unpredictable at this stage, it’s important to remember that much can change between now and Oscar night. So, think of this as a current view of the contenders rather than a prediction of how things will unfold, given the fluid nature of the field at the start of Phase Two.

10. Dune: Part Two

Compared to its predecessor, the movie Dune has fewer major awards nominations and significantly less chance of winning the Best Picture award, making its path seem as slim as Timmy’s stillsuit. While it is theoretically possible for the sequel to win a precursor prize, in reality, this series may need to return to Arrakis before it can be seriously considered for contention again.

In the running at: Critics Choice, PGA.

9. I’m Still Here

The most unexpected nomination on the morning of announcements, and the nominee who is simply happy to be included, is the Brazilian drama that has become particularly relevant due to the current political climate. Unfortunately, neither the film nor its star Fernanda Torre failed to secure a nomination in the major categories at previous precursors. A late-breaking surge similar to CODA could only potentially occur if Walter Salles’s film somehow manages to outshine Emilia Pérez in the BAFTA international film category.

In the running at: Best Film Not in the English Language at BAFTA.

8. Nickel Boys

If the path to Best Picture involves recognition in Director or Screenplay categories, then “Nickel Boys” remains a potential contender since it received a nomination for Adapted Screenplay. However, the film didn’t convert its initial acclaim from influential critics into awards at the guilds. Therefore, making it to this list feels like a triumph following its missed opportunity in Cinematography.

In the running at: The DGA’s First-Time Feature Prize.

7. Wicked

An intriguing incident transpired during the campaign for the musical “Wicked”: Those who vehemently argued it was a strong contender for Best Picture were also the very ones who despised it, using its potential award wins as a means to criticize further. This phenomenon was seen with “Don’t Look Up” a few years ago. Now that “Wicked” has settled as a secondary candidate in the race, there’s been less of such debate. Fans might find comfort knowing that the last film to win Best Picture without a Director or Screenplay nomination was “Chicago,” another musical. However, Rob Marshall’s movie at least received nominations in both categories, whereas “Wicked” was completely overlooked.

In the running at: Critics Choice, PGA, SAG.

6. The Substance

The darkly humorous French film is currently leading Wicked in terms of Coralie Fargeat’s screenplay and direction recognition. Although it might be too eccentric to secure a win through popular vote, it has a strong possibility of taking home awards for Best Actress and Makeup on Oscar night – achievements that streaming service Mubi would have eagerly embraced at the start of the season.

In the running at: Critics Choice, PGA.

5. Conclave

For the film “Conclave,” there’s a highly likely route to winning the Best Picture award: It should win at BAFTA, where it has the most nominations, followed by winning the Adapted Screenplay Oscar. After that, it could potentially secure victory using the preferential ballot system. However, the omission of Edward Berger from the Best Director category is a disappointing blow, and “Conclave” might lose its title as this season’s audience favorite if the next film on the list takes over.

In the running at: Critics Choice, DGA, PGA, BAFTA, SAG.

4. A Complete Unknown

In an unprecedented change akin to Bob Dylan electrifying his Stratocaster, James Mangold’s biopic swept through the award precursors like a hurricane, dismissing comparisons with “Walk Hard” effortlessly. The morning of nominations brought two unexpected delights in the form of Monica Barbaro for Best Supporting Actress and James Mangold as director. Given the film’s broad acclaim, Timothée Chalamet might just make history as the youngest-ever winner of the Best Actor award. However, it’s important to remember that musical biopics are a favorite genre of the Academy, but they rarely take home the top prize. The last time a musical biopic won Best Picture was “Amadeus” four decades ago.

In the running at: Critics Choice, DGA, PGA, BAFTA, SAG

3. Anora

In theory, the movie “Anora” has been acting like a strong contender, appearing at all the preliminary events and receiving the anticipated nominations. However, its loss at the Golden Globes has caused some unease, leading many to predict it might only win the Original Screenplay award at the Oscars. If this occurs, we can debate whether the film’s content was too risqué for the Academy’s more conventional voters. Yet, there’s still plenty of time left in the season, and it’s important to remember that feelings or vibes can shift suddenly.

In the running at: Critics Choice, DGA, PGA, BAFTA, SAG.

2. The Brutalist

The immigrant drama had an effortless journey with Oscar nominations, yet potential turbulence could be brewing ahead. A lackluster performance at SAG suggests that actors might not fully support it, and it remains to be seen if the AI controversy will impact Adrien Brody’s Best Actor bid. Could we be facing another scenario like Power of the Dog, where a meticulously crafted period piece triumphs in Director but fails to win in other categories?

In the running at: Critics Choice, DGA, PGA, BAFTA.

1. Emilia Pérez

When a film gathers numerous Golden Globe awards, qualifies for all the preliminary contests, and receives the second-highest number of Oscar nominations, it appears to be the clear front-runner. This has been unsettling to many online critics of Emilia Pérez, who find its flashy musical style less appealing than its controversial handling of trans issues and its oversimplified portrayal of Mexico. Unfortunately for them, voters who aim to deliver a political message have chosen Emilia Pérez as their representative, viewing the trans-empowerment opera as a challenge to the current administration. This week’s series of scandals may impact its chances, and Netflix productions often struggle in the final stages, but for now, everything seems to be going in Emilia’s favor. Prepare yourself.