What to know:
- Two of Canada’s largest newspapers had dueling scoops over the weekend that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s political career would soon end.
- Polymarket bettors are confident that he will resign by Friday, but not so sure if it will happen as early as Monday as the Toronto Star suggests.
Is he going to remain in office, or is he planning to leave? It seems that for Canada’s Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, the latter may happen soon. There is much discussion among bettors on Polymarket regarding the exact timing of his resignation announcement.
Despite contractual resignations for Trudeau not being unusual, there are two contracts with relatively small amounts (less than 6 figures) that inquire about his departure either by February or April, as well as one from December questioning whether the opposition parties will instigate an election before the spring.
On Monday, curiosity about the Canadian Prime Minister’s possible resignation was sparked when reports from two major Canadian newspapers suggested he might step down as early as Monday, or no later than Wednesday.
According to the Toronto Star, resignation might occur as soon as Monday, whereas the Globe and Mail, which initially reported this, stated that the announcement will be made prior to a Liberal Party caucus meeting set for Wednesday. (or) The Toronto Star hints at an upcoming resignation possibly happening on Monday, while the Globe and Mail, who broke the news first, mentioned that the declaration would precede a Liberal Party caucus gathering planned for Wednesday.
Betters on Polymarket express doubts about whether the announcement might occur prematurely. A bet involving Monday has accumulated more than $45,000 in wagers, but it suggests that there’s only a 24% likelihood that the week will begin with Trudeau making the decision to sign off.
The first prediction suggests there’s a 72% likelihood that the Prime Minister will resign by Wednesday, but this particular bet only involves about $10,000. A third prediction raises the probability to 80% if he steps down by Friday.
As a crypto investor, I’m keeping an eye on the ongoing speculation about the Canadian Prime Minister. While some news outlets like The Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail suggest that a resignation is imminent based on their sources, Reuters, speaking to a different source, indicates that Trudeau hasn’t yet made his decision. It’s important for me to stay informed about these developments, but I’m also mindful of the need for careful analysis and discernment when it comes to news reports.
According to Canadian pollster Angus Reid, the current approval rating for the Prime Minister stands at 22%. If an election were held today based on current polling data, the Liberals led by Trudeau are predicted to suffer significant losses, securing only about 46 seats in Parliament. In contrast, the Conservatives could potentially win a majority with approximately 225 seats.
On Polymarket, wagers indicate a 3% likelihood that Canada could become the 51st U.S. state by July. This concept initially emerged as a humorous proposal on the social media platforms of then-President-elect Donald Trump.
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2025-01-06 14:56