Larger Cohorts Than U.S. ETFs or MicroStrategy Are Dictating Bitcoin Price: Van Straten

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What to know:

  • Since September, long-term holders have sold off over 843,000 BTC. While, in the same time frame short-term holders have accumulated over 1 million BTC.
  • MicroStrategy and the U.S. spot-listed ETFs have accumulated approximately 200,000 BTC each, since September.
  • Between futures, spot, and ETF trade volume the total volume has now eclipsed $100 billion.

As a seasoned crypto investor with a decade of experience under my belt, I have witnessed the rollercoaster ride that is the cryptocurrency market. The recent surge in Bitcoin’s trade volume to over $100 billion is indeed an exciting development. However, the sell-off by long-term holders, while concerning, is not entirely surprising given the psychological impact of key price levels like $100,000.

Disclosure: The author of this story owns shares in MicroStrategy (MSTR).

Ever since Donald Trump clinched the U.S. election on November 5th, I’ve witnessed an incredible surge in Bitcoin (BTC) prices, climbing from approximately $67,000 to around $100,000. This phenomenal rise has been accompanied by a monumental increase in Bitcoin’s daily trading volume that has now exceeded the staggering figure of $100 billion.

As per data from checkonchain, Bitcoin futures trading reached an unprecedented peak of approximately $120 billion on November 17, nearly doubling since the U.S. election. But after that, the volume of Bitcoin futures trades has remained relatively stable and has been hovering around $100 billion.

It’s worth noting that the trading volume for spot trades has nearly doubled, rising from approximately $6 billion to $12 billion. Similarly, the daily trading volume for U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed on the market, specifically those dealing with spots, has also increased significantly, reaching a daily total of around $4 billion.

Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within a significant trading band around $100,000, frequently surpassing and dipping below this key psychological level. Much of this volatility can be attributed to the heavy selling pressure from long-term investors who have held bitcoin for over 155 days.

For approximately three months now, Long-Term Holders (LTHs) have offloaded about 843,113 Bitcoins. Concurrently, Short-Term Holders (STHs), those who’ve owned Bitcoin for under 155 days, have amassed roughly 1,081,633 Bitcoins in the same timeframe. This averages out to around 9,960 Bitcoins sold daily by LTHs and STHs accumulating approximately 12,432 Bitcoins per day.

To illustrate the disparity in trading volumes between long-term and short-term investors, we examine their positions relative to significant players within the industry, like MicroStrategy (MSTR), a company self-proclaimed as a bitcoin developer, which possesses approximately 423,650 bitcoins or slightly above 2% of the total circulation. Moreover, United States ETFs collectively hold more than one million bitcoins.

As an analyst, I’ve observed a significant accumulation trend since September. MicroStrategy has acquired approximately 197,250 Bitcoins, which equates to about 2,168 Bitcoins per day. On the other hand, U.S ETFs have amassed around 205,000 Bitcoins daily, with a total of approximately 2,253 Bitcoins per day. Notably, the Bitcoin balance held by U.S. ETFs has increased from 916,000 to 1.12 million Bitcoins over this period.

To definitively push Bitcoin’s price above $100,000, it’s essential that Large Token Holders (LTHs) reduce their selling of Bitcoins, or else a larger group should join the market and start buying instead.

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2024-12-13 14:56