Did Wicked and Gladiator II Just Trade Places in the Oscar Race?

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As a seasoned movie buff and a regular participant in your esteemed Movies League, I must say, this week’s analysis has left me with a peculiar sense of déjà vu – not unlike the feeling one gets when they’ve watched a classic film for the umpteenth time but still find themselves captivated by its charm.

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Despite the best efforts of Paramount, Universal, and the fandoms alike to make the opening weekends of “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” resemble a Barbenheimer-like event, it was clear that these two movies simply didn’t blend as harmoniously as we had hoped. Coining the term “Glicked” as a portmanteau might have been an attempt to create a catchy moniker, but it falls flat in practice. The name sounds more like something you’d associate with junior-high boys playing with spitballs rather than an exciting cinematic experience.

Regardless of any flaws in marketing, the opening weekends for both movies turned out to be incredibly successful, a sign of good things to come in the future. However, how impressive was this success, and which of the two films offered the best value for money? That’s where things get intriguing.

Box Office: What Is This Feeling?

Victory! Pure, undiluted victory! That’s the elation Wicked is experiencing following its weekend earnings of over $114 million. This impressive figure not only set a new record for the best opening weekend for a movie based on a Broadway show (Les Misérables, which opened to $103 million in 2012, was the closest contender), but also marked the top-grossing opening weekend among non-sequels in 2024 (outperforming Deadpool & Wolverine and the upcoming Inside Out 2). Moreover, it ranks third for the highest opening weekend of 2024, again surpassed only by D&W and IO2.

The sequel to “Gladiator,” titled “Gladiator II,” didn’t fare as well during its opening weekend compared to the original, but raking in $55 million for an R-rated 2.5-hour follow-up to a film that’s been 24 years old and doesn’t star the original cast member is quite impressive. Furthermore, it’s possible that “Moana 2” may draw more viewers away from “Wicked” than from “Gladiator,” meaning that the strong numbers for “Gladiator II” could persist through the holiday season.

Despite being anticipated, the high box office earnings for “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” were not entirely surprising. After all, “Wicked” has been a key focus for Universal throughout the year, with its frequent appearances during NBC’s Summer Olympics coverage. On the other hand, the buzz surrounding “Gladiator II,” particularly with the release of those initial shots featuring Denzel Washington in a collection of rings, has been consistent and strong. However, the potential roles these two films might play during this awards season seem to be quite different from what many, including myself while organizing this MFL season, anticipated.

As we embarked on our movie roster picks in September, I personally chose to invest heavily in “Gladiator II” at a price tag of $40, while “Wicked” was priced at a more modest $20. This decision was based on a couple of assumptions. Firstly, it seemed evident that both films had promising financial prospects, ensuring a decent return on investment. Secondly, I believed that although “Wicked” could potentially vie for craft awards (costumes, production design), “Gladiator II” held the greater potential as a contender between the two.

After analyzing the performance during its opening weekend, along with feedback from critics and audiences, it appears that our initial assumptions might have been reversed: “Wicked” has earned significantly more at the box office, and the early discussions for awards are leaning towards it. Ariana Grande is widely considered a strong contender for a Best Supporting Actress nomination or even a win in this category. However, let’s tone down the “lock” talk as there’s still room for uncertainty. As for “Wicked,” I believe it has good chances to secure nominations in categories such as costume design, production design, sound, and hair/makeup, though cinematography recognition may be less likely due to mixed opinions on its lighting. Cynthia Erivo is also a contender for Best Actress, with a Golden Globe nomination being highly probable. Moreover, “Wicked” seems poised to receive some form of recognition from most precursor award lineups.

Conversely, although Denzel Washington is generating talk for Best Supporting Actor for Gladiator, the movie’s reviews have been quite varied, ranging from sincere praise to puzzled shrugs to outright irritation. A promising contender for Best Picture, Best Director, and multiple craft awards no longer appears as solid.

In many contests, including the awards race, everything is subjective and depends on people’s opinions. The reception for “Wicked” has been more positive than anticipated, whereas “Gladiator” has received mixed reviews compared to expectations. “Wicked” only needs to surpass recent musical films that didn’t meet their potential (like Spielberg’s “West Side Story,” last year’s “The Color Purple,” and Chu’s own “In the Heights”), while “Gladiator II” must outshine its original, a Best Picture winner whose prestige has continued to rise over the past 25 years.

Essentially, “Wicked” is dominating the storyline battle right now, and controlling the narrative battle often leads to receiving awards. Unfortunately, if you spent $40 on “Gladiator II”, it appears you might have paid too much. By the way, I’m just like you, and I can’t help but feel I should have invested $20 in “Wicked” instead.

Box Office, Part II: 25 Is the New 50

Among the modifications I’ve admired in our MFL scoring system this year is the shift in how box-office performance bonuses are distributed. Previously, we only awarded bonuses when a movie surpassed the $50 million mark. Now, however, these points begin to accumulate at just $25 million. This adjustment has proven to be quite impactful for several films this week.

One intriguing contender for the least publicized $25 million box office hit in America currently is “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever“. This Lionsgate film, based on Barbara Robinson’s 1972 children’s book about a troupe of rowdy underprivileged kids who seize control of the town’s Christmas pageant, has already surpassed $25 million in just three weeks. Given its budget of only $2 million, it’s turning out to be an exceptional investment.

In other locations, the film “Conclave” recently surpassed $25 million in costs, and “Heretic” is preparing to follow suit. Both films are on track to earn recognition, with “Conclave” being a strong candidate for nominations in Best Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting roles. Hugh Grant may even secure a Golden Globe nod for his performance in “Heretic,” as it has been submitted under the Comedy category.

Jesse Eisenberg’s film “A Real Pain” (budget $4 million) and Sean Baker’s “Anora” (budget $12 million) keep gradually accumulating a million dollars or so each week. These movies are playing the long game in terms of awards season, so if you’ve invested in them, be prepared to wait.

Coming This Week

On Wednesday, “Moana 2” begins its run, marking the start of what Disney anticipates to be a prosperous Thanksgiving weekend. Meanwhile, Luca Guadagnino’s “Queer” is set to debut in limited release, offering a respite for city dwellers who are yearning for a brief escape from their families.

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2024-11-27 19:57