As a seasoned crypto investor who has witnessed the rollercoaster ride that is Bitcoin, I find myself standing at an exciting juncture once again. The price pullback before reaching $100K feels like a familiar dance, and yet, I can’t help but feel a sense of anticipation rather than apprehension.
As an analyst, I’m closely watching the fluctuations of Bitcoin‘s price, and it seems to be playing a tantalizing game with investors, momentarily pulling back before potentially reaching the $100K mark. However, given the current market conditions, it appears quite plausible that this significant milestone could be breached in the near future.
Technical Analysis
By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)
The Daily Chart
Looking at technical analysis, the day-to-day chart indicates a strong surge of bullish energy in Bitcoin (BTC). However, following an unsuccessful attempt to breach the $100K mark, the market has been experiencing a corrective phase over the past few days.
The $90,000 barrier remains strong and may halt any further decline in the market. This is particularly relevant as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) no longer indicates a condition of being overbought.
The 4-Hour Chart
Looking at a 4-hour chart, it appears that the latest Bitcoin price movement has shaped an ascending channel which was breached to the downward direction yesterday. Typically, such a break suggests a potential trend reversal.
Although the broader market trend continues to be bullish, there’s a possibility that the price may reenter its current pattern shortly, potentially causing the pattern to falter and setting the stage for another surge towards $100K.
Conversely, although it’s improbable, falling below the $90K mark might lead to a significant drop towards the $80K region.
On-Chain Analysis
By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)
Long-Term Holder SOPR
Analysis based on the blockchain offers a unique viewpoint compared to traditional technical analysis, since it can clearly illustrate the interplay between supply and demand due to the transparency offered by the Bitcoin network.
This graph shows the Strategic Outlook of Profit to Realized Losses (SOPR) for long-term investors, calculated by dividing their realized profits by losses. The 30-day moving average of Long-Term Holder SOPR is currently rising and has stayed above one, suggesting that this group is currently experiencing gains as the market experiences a rally.
From my perspective as an analyst, while it’s plausible to view increased profit realization as a potentially bearish signal due to the potential influx of supply into the market, it’s important to remember that not all situations follow this pattern. Factors such as market demand, investor sentiment, and other economic indicators can counterbalance the effects of profit realization, making it crucial to consider these aspects when analyzing market trends.
In simpler terms, the Long-Term Holders’ Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH SOPR) is currently lower than its peak this year. This suggests that there’s still potential for prices to rise further before a significant selling spree from long-term investors occurs.
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2024-11-27 18:55