Why Tron Ares Box Office Projections Are Slipping

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Early estimates for Disney’s new movie, *Tron Ares*, aren’t looking promising as its release date approaches. The film, a sequel to *Tron Legacy*, opens nationwide on Friday, October 10th, with some early screenings beginning Wednesday. Initially, *Tron Ares* seemed poised for success as a major October release with a dedicated fanbase eager for a continuation of the series. However, recent reports suggest the movie may not perform as well as Disney had expected.

What are the Tron Ares box office predictions for its opening weekend?

Tron: Ares is projected to make between $33 million and $45 million during its first weekend in theaters. This is a bit lower than earlier estimates, which predicted around $44 to $55 million.

According to a report from Box Office Theory on October 8th, pre-sale numbers for Tron Ares haven’t been as strong as expected. They’ve been tracking interest in the film since early September and found that ticket sales are lower than those of similar recent sequels like Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. While existing Tron fans are enthusiastic, the film hasn’t yet attracted a broader family audience.

Adding to the challenges facing ‘Tron: Ares,’ critics haven’t been very impressed, giving it a 54% rating on Rotten Tomatoes based on 107 reviews (as of this writing). While the visuals and Nine Inch Nails’ soundtrack have received praise, many critics find the story confusing and lacking substance. The ‘Tron’ franchise hasn’t historically been a critical darling – even ‘Tron: Legacy’ only scored 51%. Ultimately, these lukewarm reviews could make it difficult to draw in audiences who aren’t already fans.

Industry experts predict a strong start for Tron: Ares, estimating a domestic opening of $40 to $45 million and a worldwide total of $80 to $90 million. Current ticket presales are around $7 million, similar to those of Alien: Romulus, which opened with $42 million. The film is also expected to dominate premium large format screens and will be the biggest new release for the rest of October, giving it a significant advantage.

Okay, so everyone’s talking about the potential opening weekend numbers for *Tron: Ares*, and they seem pretty big. But as someone who follows box office closely, it’s helpful to compare it to other recent releases. This year, *Snow White* opened around $42 million, and *Dog Man* pulled in $36 million – similar territory. However, the really important thing to remember is that *Tron: Ares* cost a whopping $180 million to make, way more than any previous *Tron* film. That means it needs to earn roughly $450 million *total* just to cover its costs. So, while an $80-90 million opening weekend worldwide sounds impressive, it’s actually a little lower than what it *really* needs to be considered a success.

One reason people aren’t very excited about Tron Ares is that it features a completely new set of characters, with Jeff Bridges only appearing in a supporting role. Also, because it’s not a direct continuation of Tron Legacy, it lacks the strong connection to the previous film that could have built more anticipation.

I’m a big fan of Jared Leto, but I’ve been following the recent allegations against him, which he’s denied. It’s really upsetting, and I worry it might unfortunately keep people from checking out *Tron: Ares*, which I was so excited about. It’s a shame when something like this overshadows a project, regardless of the truth.

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2025-10-10 00:17