Bitcoin Bear Market Blues: 3 Signs It’s Not Over Yet (Sorry, HODLers!)

by

Oh, Bitcoin. You fickle, fabulous, frustrating creature. According to the ever-so-wise Willy Woo (yes, that’s his real name, and no, he’s not a wizard, just a very clever analyst), we’re still stuck in bear market purgatory. And let’s be honest, it’s about as fun as a root canal without anesthesia.

Short-Term Holders: Still Drowning in Red Ink

In a recent post on X (formerly known as Twitter, because why not rename everything?), Woo laid out the three signals that typically mark the end of a bear market. Spoiler alert: Bitcoin hasn’t hit any of them. The first? The price needs to break above the cost basis of short-term holders (STHs). These are the folks who bought in the last 155 days-basically, the newbies who thought they were getting in on the ground floor, only to find themselves in the basement.

As the chart below (courtesy of Woo’s magical spreadsheet skills) shows, Bitcoin is still trading below the STH cost basis. Translation? New investors are underwater, and not in a fun, tropical vacation kind of way. More like a ‘why did I listen to my cousin at Thanksgiving’ kind of way.

And let’s not forget the Q4 2025 debacle (yes, I know it’s 2023, but bear with me). Bitcoin slipped under the STH cost basis and has been sulking there ever since, like a teenager after being told no to a second slice of cake. The gap? Wider than my to-do list on a Monday morning.

Historically, the price breaks back above the STH cost basis at the end of bear markets (those handy circles in the chart are there to remind us of happier times). This is usually followed by fresh buying-because nothing says ‘I’m optimistic’ like throwing more money into a volatile asset. This, in turn, triggers the third signal: a reversal in the average acquisition level of STHs. Basically, investors start buying at higher prices, and the cost basis stops its downward spiral.

One user, clearly as impatient as the rest of us, asked Woo for more details. His response?

“Given price is not even close to the cost basis of recent investors, and that cost basis is dropping each day… there’s no point in buying until a cross becomes imminent. Bear markets are about patience.”

Patience? In 2023? Good luck with that.

Right now, the STH cost basis is hovering around $81,000, meaning recent buyers are sitting on a net unrealized loss of over 14%. Ouch. The question is, how long until Bitcoin decides to grace us with its presence above that level? My guess? Longer than it takes me to finish this article.

BTC Price: Because We All Need a Reality Check

Bitcoin ended last week below $67,000, but hey, it’s Monday, and we’re all about fresh starts. The price has bounced back to $69,500, which is… something. Not a bull run, but not a complete disaster either. Kind of like my dating life.

So, there you have it. Bitcoin’s bear market blues continue, and we’re all just along for the ride. In the meantime, maybe consider taking up knitting. Or meditation. Or both. Because let’s face it, we could all use a hobby right about now.

Read More

2026-04-07 09:04