Harris Leads Trump on Polymarket as DNC Begins, but They Got Tied Earlier Amid Volatility

Bettors trade volatile election markets

Over the recent weekend, trading activity on Polymarket significantly increased as traders placed bets concerning the 2024 US presidential election. The traders substantially decreased shares representing Kamala Harris’ likelihood of winning the election by about 8%, resulting in a temporary tie between her and Donald Trump. However, by Monday morning (US time), she managed to reclaim a 4-point advantage over him.

One possible explanation for Trump’s resilience, even as polls lean towards Harris, could be that certain investors are clinging to old beliefs based on the presumption that President Joe Biden would have been the Democratic candidate, rather than Harris.

During a recent episode on the political wagering podcast “Star Spangled Gamblers,” one of the guests, a political betting expert named Gaetan Dugas, contended that the market had miscalculated Trump’s odds following Biden’s withdrawal, requiring an update.

He stated that a victory for Trump was already factored into the market with Biden as the contender. Once he became certain that Kamala Harris would win, he felt like he was purchasing the lowest odds for Trump at their peak price.

One way to rephrase this in a more natural and easy-to-read manner is: “It’s worth mentioning that Polymarket initially priced the election with a higher value for Trump, even though U.S. citizens are prohibited from using their platform. Some might be skeptical about its reliability due to this ban on American voters as market participants.”

In the realm of prediction markets, PredictIt – an platform that has received approval from U.S. authorities – is currently indicating that Harris holds a stronger position compared to Trump.

It’s important to note that prediction markets aren’t infallible. For instance, PredictIt predicted an 82% chance of Hillary Clinton defeating Trump in 2016, which was similar to The New York Times models, but she didn’t win. Similarly, as the polls closed in the U.K., prediction markets only assigned a 16% probability to Brexit occurring, but it ultimately did happen.

Currently, it appears that Harris holds a slight edge in the competition. According to RealClearPolling, she leads Trump by 1.4 percentage points, and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin model shows a 2.5-percentage-point lead for Harris. Whether this reflects fair pricing on PredictIt or Polymarket is uncertain.

As a long-time political enthusiast and experienced trader in prediction markets, I am eagerly anticipating this week’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where Kamala Harris will officially be nominated as the party’s candidate. This event is always a significant moment in U.S. politics, and I expect it to be especially busy given the unique circumstances surrounding this election cycle.

Prediction markets show end to RFK Jr.’s campaign

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential bid has been finding it challenging to maintain its initial pace following a surge that placed him nearly at 12% in opinion polls in February. Currently, his support hovers between 8% and 9%.

Bettors participating in prediction markets are less optimistic about RFK Jr.’s performance compared to pollsters: one specific contract on Polymarket indicates a 50% probability that RFK Jr. will secure less than 1% of the total votes, and only a 7% likelihood that he’ll achieve results similar to current polling figures.

People are also wagering that he might withdraw from the race prior to November, with an estimated likelihood of about 56%.

On a recent broadcast, conservative commentator and ex-Fox News host Bill O’Reilly bluntly expressed his view that the RFK Jr. campaign is essentially over.

“Right from the start, I made it clear that things weren’t going to pan out, and here we are. I warned you, it wasn’t destined for success.” (This version maintains the original sentiment but is more conversational in tone.)

It’s unlikely that Kennedy’s dropping out of the presidential race will automatically mean support for Donald Trump, despite a cordial conversation they had in July following the attempt on Trump’s life (which was later disclosed by Kennedy’s team). Lately, it has been revealed that Kennedy sought to meet with Kamala Harris about a position in her administration, but he subsequently declared that he doesn’t plan to endorse her and instead aims to challenge her.

There’s a 35% likelihood that Trump might endorse someone, suggesting there’s a decent level of uncertainty that the rapport between him and the other candidates will mend.

China’s relationship with bitcoin is complicated

1. “Justin Sun from Tron recently tweeted on platform X: ‘China removes crypto ban. Which meme captures this best?’ This post sparked excitement among the crypto community, leading to headlines such as ‘Justin Sun’s Mysterious Post Sparks Cryptocurrency Community Debate over China Lifting Bitcoin Ban’ and ‘Justin Sun Fans Crypto Talk with Hints of China Easing Crypto Restrictions.'”

On Polymarket, most bettors are nearly dismissing the possibility, assigning it only a 10% likelihood that the event will occur before the end of the year.

As an analyst, I must clarify that the issue surrounding the status of Bitcoin in China is complex and not straightforwardly answered with a simple ‘yes’ or ‘no’. The Chinese government has taken various measures to regulate and control cryptocurrency trading, but it hasn’t issued an outright ban on Bitcoin itself. It’s crucial to stay informed about updates in this rapidly-evolving landscape.

According to an earlier report by CoinDesk, despite China imposing strict regulations on cryptocurrency transactions, there are ambiguities in the law that suggest activities such as holding and peer-to-peer trading might not be outright prohibited. This legal uncertainty leaves room for continued usage of cryptocurrencies within the country.

As a researcher, I find that Beijing seems reluctant to embrace cryptocurrency trading within its borders due to concerns about potential challenges to its stringent capital control measures. These controls are put in place to manage the inflow and outflow of funds, preventing capital flight and ensuring the stability of the yuan.

As a seasoned trader with extensive experience navigating the complexities of international finance, I can attest to the intricacies that govern the trade between mainland China and Hong Kong, particularly in the realm of crypto ETFs. The unique in-kind redemption models of these ETFs are a testament to their distinctiveness, making them off-limits for mainland Chinese traders due to regulatory restrictions. I’ve encountered similar situations throughout my career where jurisdictional boundaries and regulatory frameworks have dictated the course of trade. It’s an ever-evolving landscape that requires constant vigilance and adaptability to stay ahead in this dynamic market.

Until there are significant monetary policy changes in China, crypto can’t have a foothold.